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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Polessya Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-3, 1-1, 0-2, 2-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f59f635d06def44b4bfa932631cd09d12bd81e936d81c10fd3594fde8af10e5c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.51,
"away_win_prob": 0.624,
"btts_no_prob": 0.317,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.683,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1991,
"fair_odds_away": 1.6,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.02,
"fair_odds_home": 5.65,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.1769,
"over_25_prob": 0.736,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.264
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Polessya",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Polessya",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Polessya"
},
"away_xg": 2.51,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Polessya",
"confidence": 62.4,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Polessya",
"edge": 0.0521,
"edge_gap": 0.4253,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.6243,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 62.4,
"draw": 19.9,
"home": 17.7
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Polessya"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.62
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.62,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Polessya Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.75,
"market_odds": 1.62,
"model_odds": 1.6,
"overround": 7.9,
"prob_edge": 0.8,
"value_pct": 1.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 15,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 91.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 31.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 68.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 68.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.51,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Zorya Luhansk or Draw",
"prob": 37.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Zorya Luhansk or Polessya",
"prob": 80.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Polessya",
"prob": 82.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Polessya",
"pick_prob": 82.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 62.4,
"draw_pct": 19.9,
"home_pct": 17.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Polessya"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.83,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 73.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.83,
"under_prob": 26.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1.2,
"implied_prob": 61.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Polessya Win",
"model_prob": 62.5,
"odds": 1.62
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Polessya",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Zorya Luhansk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.0,
"gap_pp": -0.32,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 17.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.78,
"gap_pp": -4.89,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 19.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.22,
"gap_pp": 5.21,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 62.43
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": 23.6,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"gap_pp": -23.6,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 26.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 5.15,
"early": 5.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 18.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 18.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.74,
"early": 3.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.22,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.9,
"early": 1.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 23.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3984,
"ev_under": -0.4931,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3984,
"over_prob": 73.6,
"sort_key": 10508.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 26.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4072,
"ev_yes": 0.2704,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2704,
"no_prob": 31.7,
"sort_key": 10243.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 68.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0264,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"max_ev": -0.0264,
"model_prob": 0.6243,
"side_label": "Polessya",
"sort_key": 1793.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 6496,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6496.webp",
"away_team_name": "Polessya",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1396819,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 599,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/599.webp",
"home_team_name": "Zorya Luhansk",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5531,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"model_prob": 0.6243,
"p_final": 0.601
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"model_prob": 0.199,
"p_final": 0.2343
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 5.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0006,
"ev": -0.0764,
"implied_prob": 0.18,
"model_prob": 0.1768,
"p_final": 0.1793
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.86,
"edge_no": -0.1855,
"edge_yes": 0.1855,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4072,
"ev_yes": 0.2704,
"implied_no": 0.5025,
"implied_yes": 0.4975,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 1.92,
"edge_over": 0.2344,
"edge_under": -0.2344,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3984,
"ev_under": -0.4931,
"implied_over": 0.5016,
"implied_under": 0.4984,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.83,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3984,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.683,
"draw_prob": 0.199,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6243,
"over_prob": 0.736,
"total_xg": 3.83,
"under_prob": 0.264,
"xg_diff": 1.19
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.5722,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6243,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Polessya"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1855,
"ev": 0.2704,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2344,
"ev": 0.3984,
"implied_prob": 0.5016,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1396819,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3984,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6243,
"draw": 0.199,
"home": 0.1768
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2704,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.683,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2704,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.683,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Polessya",
"home": "Zorya Luhansk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.293222,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3984,
"implied_prob": 0.5016,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396819,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:54:15.512288+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 72 |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 6 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 9 | Karpaty | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 41 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 14 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 72 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 57 |
| 3 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 48 |
| 4 | Polessya | 30 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 5 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 60 |
| 8 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 51 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kudrivka | 30 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 49 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | Oleksandria | 30 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 15 | SK Poltava | 30 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 13 |
| 16 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 30.7 | 10.1 | +20.6 | 57 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 29.8 | 9.8 | +20.0 | 72 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 36.9 | 18.0 | +18.9 | 59 |
| 4 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 28.4 | 12.4 | +16.0 | 60 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 22.0 | 12.7 | +9.3 | 51 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 24.4 | 20.0 | +4.4 | 41 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 22.6 | 22.2 | +0.4 | 49 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 22.1 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 46 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 12.6 | 16.5 | -3.9 | 31 |
| 10 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 17.2 | 23.2 | -6.0 | 31 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 21.4 | 27.8 | -6.4 | 48 |
| 12 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 16.6 | 23.8 | -7.2 | 21 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 17.4 | 29.0 | -11.6 | 28 |
| 14 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 18.9 | 32.2 | -13.3 | 32 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 10.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 10.1 | 36.0 | -25.9 | 13 |
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