Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3053,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.352,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.28,
      "fair_odds_draw": 2.84,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.92,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.99,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3427,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Alanyaspor",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Alanyaspor"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.92,
    "betting_insight": {
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      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0588,
        "edge_gap": 0.0097,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2935,
        "model_prob": 0.3523,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 30.5,
          "draw": 35.2,
          "home": 34.3
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [],
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      "risk_key": null,
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    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 60.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 7,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 62.8,
        "no_prob": 60.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 60.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 39.6
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 0.99,
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 14.8
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 14.7
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 13.6
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            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
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          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or Draw",
            "prob": 69.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or Alanyaspor",
            "prob": 64.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Alanyaspor",
            "prob": 65.7
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 69.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 35.2,
        "home_pct": 34.3,
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        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
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        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "over_prob": 29.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 70.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 1.91,
        "under_prob": 70.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 15.5,
        "implied_prob": 30.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 35.2,
        "odds": 3.28
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Alanyaspor",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 32.3,
          "gap_pp": 1.96,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 34.27
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          "closing_implied_pct": 29.35,
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 2.98,
          "early": 2.98,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
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          "early": 3.28,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 2.51,
          "early": 2.51,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        "label": "0-0",
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    },
    "home_xg": 0.99,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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      "away_team_id": 996,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/996.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Alanyaspor",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
      "country_name": "Turkey",
      "fixture_id": 1394733,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 3589,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3589.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck",
      "league_country": "Turkey",
      "league_id": 203,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/203.webp",
      "league_name": "S\u00fcper Lig",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
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          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
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        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.51,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.0118,
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            "model_prob": 0.3427,
            "p_final": 0.3316
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        },
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          "edge_yes": -0.1426,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5386,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.91,
          "edge_over": -0.1787,
          "edge_under": 0.1787,
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          "implied_over": 0.4777,
          "implied_under": 0.5223,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 1.91,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
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        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "defensive",
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          "xg_diff": 0.07
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      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
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          "side": "draw",
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        "btts": {
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          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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        "away": 0.305,
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      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": {
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        "model_prob": 0.605,
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        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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          "not_dominant": false,
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Alanyaspor",
        "home": "Fatih Karag\u00fcmr\u00fck"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.701,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1394733,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T16:59:14.181476+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}