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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Progres Niederkorn F91 Dudelange ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2c0763eddeca984f506696a1768525306c00db865744110cbb9341a7c8164003",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Progres Niederkorn or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Progres Niederkorn"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Progres Niederkorn",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1069,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3107,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 82.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 69.0,
"no_prob": 42.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.1,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.65,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Progres Niederkorn or Draw",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Progres Niederkorn or F91 Dudelange",
"prob": 65.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or F91 Dudelange",
"prob": 65.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Progres Niederkorn or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.0,
"draw_pct": 35.0,
"home_pct": 35.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Progres Niederkorn"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.95,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 56.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.6,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.95,
"under_prob": 43.4
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "F91 Dudelange",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Progres Niederkorn",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.07,
"gap_pp": 10.69,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.4,
"gap_pp": 3.27,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.53,
"gap_pp": -13.97,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.71,
"gap_pp": -7.11,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 56.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.29,
"gap_pp": 7.11,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 43.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.07,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.01,
"early": 4.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.4,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.53,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.51,
"early": 2.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1111,
"ev_yes": -0.1606,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1111,
"no_prob": 42.9,
"sort_key": 10249.99,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.1
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0944,
"ev_under": 0.0893,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0893,
"over_prob": 56.6,
"sort_key": 10080.37,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0148,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"max_ev": 0.0148,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Progres Niederkorn",
"sort_key": 5211.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.2
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 578,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/578.webp",
"away_team_name": "F91 Dudelange",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lu.svg",
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"fixture_id": 1393724,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 658,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/658.webp",
"home_team_name": "Progres Niederkorn",
"league_country": "Luxembourg",
"league_id": 261,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/261.webp",
"league_name": "National Division",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4743,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0662,
"ev": -0.2298,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3991
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1902,
"best_odd": 4.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.224,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2302
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3778,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0404,
"ev": 0.0148,
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.3511
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.59,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"edge_no": 0.0609,
"edge_yes": -0.0609,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1111,
"ev_yes": -0.1606,
"implied_no": 0.3681,
"implied_yes": 0.6319,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.51,
"edge_over": -0.0477,
"edge_under": 0.0477,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0944,
"ev_under": 0.0893,
"implied_over": 0.6137,
"implied_under": 0.3863,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1111,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.571,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.566,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.434,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0404,
"ev": 0.0148,
"implied_prob": 0.3107,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Progres Niederkorn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0609,
"ev": 0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.3681,
"model_prob": 0.429,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0477,
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.3863,
"model_prob": 0.434,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1393724,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1111,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.3863,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.434,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.3863,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.434,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "F91 Dudelange",
"home": "Progres Niederkorn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047662,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.3681,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.429,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1393724,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T20:26:33.120692+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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National Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atert Bissen | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 65 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 65 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 60 |
| 4 | UNA Strassen | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 58 |
| 5 | F91 Dudelange | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 58 |
| 6 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 40 |
| 8 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 10 | Victoria Rosport | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 35 |
| 11 | Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 12 | Swift Hesperange | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 13 | Jeunesse Canach | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 31 |
| 14 | Mamer | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 29 |
| 15 | Union Titus Petange | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 |
| 16 | Rodange 91 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atert Bissen | 30 | 70 | 27 | +43 | 65 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 30 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 65 |
| 3 | F91 Dudelange | 30 | 59 | 38 | +21 | 58 |
| 4 | UNA Strassen | 30 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 58 |
| 5 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 30 | 51 | 24 | +27 | 60 |
| 6 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 30 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 40 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 30 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 30 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 38 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 30 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 40 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 30 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 36 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 30 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 35 |
| 12 | Mamer | 30 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 29 |
| 13 | Swift Hesperange | 30 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 32 |
| 14 | Jeunesse Canach | 30 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 31 |
| 15 | Rodange 91 | 30 | 28 | 65 | -37 | 25 |
| 16 | Union Titus Petange | 30 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 25 |
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