Almeria vs Las Palmas Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "851a1c79d68ba7020e865ecd77e0e34c9e6f09766b47ddf2a1ebcae6b6b57394",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4239,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2996,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.36,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.34,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.62,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.09,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2765,
      "prediction_confidence": "low"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Almeria or draw and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Almeria"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.4,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Las Palmas",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1965,
        "edge_gap": 0.1244,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2275,
        "model_prob": 0.424,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 42.4,
          "draw": 30.0,
          "home": 27.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.25
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 4.25,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Las Palmas Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 4.4,
        "market_odds": 4.25,
        "model_odds": 2.36,
        "overround": 3.4,
        "prob_edge": 18.8,
        "value_pct": 80.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 14,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 39,
        "away_score_rate": 75.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 39,
        "home_score_rate": 66.4,
        "no_prob": 48.4,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 51.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 51.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.4,
        "home_expected": 1.09,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 11.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 8.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Almeria or Draw",
            "prob": 57.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Almeria or Las Palmas",
            "prob": 70.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Las Palmas",
            "prob": 72.4
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Las Palmas",
        "pick_prob": 72.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 42.4,
        "draw_pct": 30.0,
        "home_pct": 27.7,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Las Palmas"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 2.49,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 45.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.49,
        "under_prob": 54.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 80.2,
        "implied_prob": 23.5,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Las Palmas Win",
        "model_prob": 42.4,
        "odds": 4.25
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Las Palmas",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Almeria",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.26,
          "gap_pp": -24.62,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 27.64
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 24.98,
          "gap_pp": 4.97,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.96
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 22.75,
          "gap_pp": 19.65,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 42.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 58.04,
          "gap_pp": -12.64,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 45.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 41.96,
          "gap_pp": 12.64,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 54.6
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.85,
          "early": 1.85,
          "implied_closing_pct": 52.26,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 52.26,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.87,
          "early": 3.87,
          "implied_closing_pct": 24.98,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 24.98,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.25,
          "early": 4.25,
          "implied_closing_pct": 22.75,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 22.75,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.67,
          "early": 1.67,
          "implied_closing_pct": 58.04,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 58.04,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.31,
          "early": 2.31,
          "implied_closing_pct": 41.96,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 41.96,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 19.6,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.09,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2282,
        "ev_under": 0.3104,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.3104,
        "over_prob": 45.4,
        "sort_key": 10429.36,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 54.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1374,
        "ev_yes": -0.1641,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1374,
        "no_prob": 48.4,
        "sort_key": 10123.66,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 51.6
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0847,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2275,
        "max_ev": 0.0847,
        "model_prob": 0.424,
        "side_label": "Las Palmas",
        "sort_key": 10076.23,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 818.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.7
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 534,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/534.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Las Palmas",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1392195,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 723,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/723.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Almeria",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 141,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1411,
            "best_odd": 4.25,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0277,
            "ev": 0.0847,
            "implied_prob": 0.2275,
            "model_prob": 0.424,
            "p_final": 0.2552
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2776,
            "best_odd": 3.87,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0138,
            "ev": 0.0203,
            "implied_prob": 0.2498,
            "model_prob": 0.2996,
            "p_final": 0.2637
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3784,
            "best_odd": 1.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0932,
            "ev": -0.2055,
            "implied_prob": 0.5226,
            "model_prob": 0.2764,
            "p_final": 0.4295
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.35,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": 0.076,
          "edge_yes": -0.076,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1374,
          "ev_yes": -0.1641,
          "implied_no": 0.408,
          "implied_yes": 0.592,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.7,
          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": -0.1187,
          "edge_under": 0.1187,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2282,
          "ev_under": 0.3104,
          "implied_over": 0.5727,
          "implied_under": 0.4273,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.49,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3104,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.516,
          "draw_prob": 0.2996,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.424,
          "over_prob": 0.454,
          "total_xg": 2.49,
          "under_prob": 0.546,
          "xg_diff": 0.31
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "ev": 0.0203,
          "implied_prob": 0.2498,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2996,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0277,
          "ev": 0.0847,
          "implied_prob": 0.2275,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.424,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Las Palmas"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.076,
          "ev": 0.1374,
          "implied_prob": 0.408,
          "model_prob": 0.484,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1187,
          "ev": 0.3104,
          "implied_prob": 0.4273,
          "model_prob": 0.546,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1392195,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3104,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.424,
        "draw": 0.2996,
        "home": 0.2764
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "variance_medium",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1374,
        "implied_prob": 0.408,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.484,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1374,
          "implied_prob": 0.408,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.484,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Las Palmas",
        "home": "Almeria"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.104399,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3104,
        "implied_prob": 0.4273,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.546,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 4
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1392195,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T16:00:18.466084+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}