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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Girona Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f54201842af9ad270d0afdc67f759be969a13b1f00e908ea41bf7284b4d32c01",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.88,
"away_win_prob": 0.1722,
"btts_no_prob": 0.502,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.498,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2627,
"fair_odds_away": 5.81,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.81,
"fair_odds_home": 1.77,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.75,
"home_win_prob": 0.5651,
"over_25_prob": 0.489,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.511
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Elche",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Girona",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Elche"
},
"away_xg": 0.88,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Girona",
"confidence": 56.5,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Girona",
"edge": 0.0451,
"edge_gap": 0.3026,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5201,
"model_prob": 0.5652,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.2,
"draw": 26.3,
"home": 56.5
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Girona"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.86
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.86,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Girona Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.92,
"market_odds": 1.86,
"model_odds": 1.77,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 2.7,
"value_pct": 5.1,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 58.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 82.6,
"no_prob": 50.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.88,
"home_expected": 1.75,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Girona or Draw",
"prob": 82.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Girona or Elche",
"prob": 73.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Elche",
"prob": 43.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Girona or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.2,
"draw_pct": 26.3,
"home_pct": 56.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Girona"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.63,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.63,
"under_prob": 51.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.1,
"implied_prob": 53.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Girona Win",
"model_prob": 56.5,
"odds": 1.86
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Elche",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Girona",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.01,
"gap_pp": 4.51,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 56.52
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.39,
"gap_pp": 0.87,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.26
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.6,
"gap_pp": -5.38,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 17.22
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.87,
"gap_pp": -6.97,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.13,
"gap_pp": 6.97,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.86,
"early": 1.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.81,
"early": 3.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.28,
"early": 4.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.87,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.19,
"early": 2.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.13,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.75,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1394,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1498,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.0,
"text": "+15.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1498,
"over_prob": 48.9,
"sort_key": 10284.82,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1295,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.0,
"text": "+13.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1683,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1295,
"no_prob": 50.2,
"sort_key": 10116.55,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.8
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0143,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"max_ev": 0.0143,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5652,
"side_label": "Girona",
"sort_key": 5211.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 797,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/797.webp",
"away_team_name": "Elche",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1391194,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 547,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/547.webp",
"home_team_name": "Girona",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "La Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1839,
"best_odd": 4.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0099,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.226,
"model_prob": 0.1722,
"p_final": 0.2161
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2961,
"best_odd": 3.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0228,
"implied_prob": 0.2539,
"model_prob": 0.2626,
"p_final": 0.2565
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5594,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": 0.0143,
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"model_prob": 0.5652,
"p_final": 0.5453
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.074,
"edge_yes": -0.074,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1295,
"ev_yes": -0.1683,
"implied_no": 0.428,
"implied_yes": 0.572,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.0733,
"edge_under": 0.0733,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1394,
"ev_under": 0.1498,
"implied_over": 0.5623,
"implied_under": 0.4377,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.63,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1498,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.498,
"draw_prob": 0.2626,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5652,
"over_prob": 0.489,
"total_xg": 2.63,
"under_prob": 0.511,
"xg_diff": 0.87
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": 0.0143,
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5652,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Girona"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.074,
"ev": 0.1295,
"implied_prob": 0.428,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0733,
"ev": 0.1498,
"implied_prob": 0.4377,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1391194,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1498,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1722,
"draw": 0.2626,
"home": 0.5652
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1295,
"implied_prob": 0.428,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1295,
"implied_prob": 0.428,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Elche",
"home": "Girona"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076548,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1498,
"implied_prob": 0.4377,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.511,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1391194,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T19:01:46.291070+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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La Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 29 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 60 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 46 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 54 |
| 8 | Elche | 38 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 42 |
| 10 | Levante | 38 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 43 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 38 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 42 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 46 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 38 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 45 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 50 |
| 18 | Girona | 38 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 41 |
| 19 | Getafe | 38 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 51 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 29 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 86.7 | 45.6 | +41.1 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 74.8 | 40.1 | +34.7 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 57.8 | 45.0 | +12.8 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 58.0 | 48.5 | +9.5 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 54.7 | 45.5 | +9.2 | 60 |
| 6 | Athletic Club | 38 | 49.4 | 40.5 | +8.9 | 45 |
| 7 | Valencia | 38 | 49.3 | 46.3 | +3.0 | 49 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50.1 | 48.0 | +2.1 | 50 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 49.7 | 49.4 | +0.3 | 54 |
| 10 | Alaves | 38 | 46.1 | 47.4 | -1.3 | 43 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 38 | 45.5 | 49.1 | -3.6 | 42 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 38 | 48.4 | 53.8 | -5.4 | 46 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 49.0 | 54.7 | -5.7 | 46 |
| 14 | Levante | 38 | 51.5 | 59.3 | -7.8 | 42 |
| 15 | Girona | 38 | 45.6 | 55.4 | -9.8 | 41 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 30.2 | 40.8 | -10.6 | 51 |
| 17 | Sevilla | 38 | 38.0 | 54.0 | -16.0 | 43 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 43.1 | 61.9 | -18.8 | 42 |
| 19 | Elche | 38 | 40.5 | 60.1 | -19.6 | 43 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 34.3 | 57.3 | -23.0 | 29 |
UEFA Champions League
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