Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.96,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2481,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.525,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.475,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3084,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.03,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.24,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.25,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4435,
      "over_25_prob": 0.409,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.591
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Alaves or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Alaves"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.96,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Alaves",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0335,
        "edge_gap": 0.1356,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4104,
        "model_prob": 0.4439,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 24.8,
          "draw": 30.8,
          "home": 44.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.37
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.37,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Alaves Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.44,
        "market_odds": 2.37,
        "model_odds": 2.25,
        "overround": 2.8,
        "prob_edge": 2.3,
        "value_pct": 5.3,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 12,
        "away_failed_to_score": 12,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 61.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 74.3,
        "no_prob": 52.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 52.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 47.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.96,
        "home_expected": 1.36,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 13.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Alaves or Draw",
            "prob": 75.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Alaves or Rayo Vallecano",
            "prob": 69.2
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Rayo Vallecano",
            "prob": 55.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Alaves or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 75.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 24.8,
        "draw_pct": 30.8,
        "home_pct": 44.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Alaves"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.32,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 40.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.32,
        "under_prob": 59.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 5.3,
        "implied_prob": 42.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Alaves Win",
        "model_prob": 44.4,
        "odds": 2.37
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Alaves",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 41.04,
          "gap_pp": 3.35,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 44.39
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.21,
          "gap_pp": 1.62,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 30.83
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.75,
          "gap_pp": -4.96,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 24.78
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 43.88,
          "gap_pp": -2.98,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 40.9
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 56.12,
          "gap_pp": 2.98,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 59.1
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.37,
          "early": 2.37,
          "implied_closing_pct": 41.04,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 41.04,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.33,
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          "implied_early_pct": 29.21,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 3.27,
          "early": 3.27,
          "implied_closing_pct": 29.75,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 29.75,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.2,
          "early": 2.2,
          "implied_closing_pct": 43.88,
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          "implied_early_pct": 43.88,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
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          "implied_closing_pct": 56.12,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 56.12,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
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      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-0",
        "prob": 13.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.36,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.2,
          "text": "-9.2%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.0638,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 6.4,
          "text": "+6.4%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 40.9,
        "sort_key": 10207.42,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 59.1,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_no": 0.0343,
        "ev_no_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 3.4,
          "text": "+3.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1118,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -11.2,
          "text": "-11.2%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 47.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 0.7,
          "text": "+0.7%"
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
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        "max_ev_display": {
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          "text": "+0.7%"
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        "side_label": "Alaves",
        "sort_key": 5205.28,
        "tier": "lean"
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      {
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 820.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 728,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/728.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Rayo Vallecano",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1391189,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 542,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/542.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Alaves",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 140,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
      "league_name": "La Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-24 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 3.27,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0138,
            "ev": -0.0723,
            "implied_prob": 0.2975,
            "model_prob": 0.2478,
            "p_final": 0.2837
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2927,
            "best_odd": 3.33,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0047,
            "ev": -0.0115,
            "implied_prob": 0.2921,
            "model_prob": 0.3083,
            "p_final": 0.2968
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4274,
            "best_odd": 2.37,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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            "ev": 0.0066,
            "implied_prob": 0.4104,
            "model_prob": 0.4439,
            "p_final": 0.4247
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.87,
          "edge_no": 0.0356,
          "edge_yes": -0.0356,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0343,
          "ev_yes": -0.1118,
          "implied_no": 0.4894,
          "implied_yes": 0.5106,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.8,
          "edge_over": -0.037,
          "edge_under": 0.037,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.092,
          "ev_under": 0.0638,
          "implied_over": 0.446,
          "implied_under": 0.554,
          "n_bookmakers": 12,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.32,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
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      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
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        ],
        "score": 5.0
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.475,
          "draw_prob": 0.3083,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4439,
          "over_prob": 0.409,
          "total_xg": 2.32,
          "under_prob": 0.591,
          "xg_diff": 0.4
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4439,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Alaves"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0356,
          "ev": 0.0343,
          "implied_prob": 0.4894,
          "model_prob": 0.525,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.037,
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          "implied_prob": 0.554,
          "model_prob": 0.591,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      "match_regime": {
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
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        "max_valid_ev": 0.0638,
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        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2478,
        "draw": 0.3083,
        "home": 0.4439
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Rayo Vallecano",
        "home": "Alaves"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.026394,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0638,
        "implied_prob": 0.554,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.591,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1391189,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T19:01:39.191099+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}