Posušje vs Velež Statistics & Analysis

May 09, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Posušje Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 05:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2977029

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Posušje 1–1 Velež
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE5 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Velež (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lebih 2.5 gol kira-kira 15.6 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Posušje (1X2) 41.8 56.4 -14.7
Lukis (1X2) 25.7 24.9 +0.7
Velež (1X2) 32.6 18.6 +13.9
Lebih 2.5 gol 50.6 35.0 +15.6
Bawah 2.5 gol 49.4 65.0 -15.6
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 50.6% pada Lebih 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 35.0%. Bezanya — kira-kira 15.6 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE5 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE5) Δ tersirat (pp)
Posušje (1X2) 1.56 1.56 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0
Velež (1X2) 4.73 4.73 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.6 2.6 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.4 1.4 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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    "away_xg": 1.25,
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    "betting_markets": {
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      "match_winner": {
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        "lean_label": "Draw"
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        "pick_prob": 71.7,
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        "total_expected": 1.85,
        "under_prob": 71.7
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 16.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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      "away_team_id": 3381,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3381.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Vele\u017e",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
      "country_name": "Bosnia",
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      "goals_home": null,
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      "home_team_id": 14146,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14146.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Posu\u0161je",
      "league_country": "Bosnia",
      "league_id": 315,
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      "league_name": "Premijer Liga Bosnia",
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      },
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.701,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
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          "edge": 0.0653,
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          "side": "under",
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      },
      "match_id": 1389095,
      "match_regime": {
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1286,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0755,
        "implied_prob": 0.6517,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.717,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0755,
          "implied_prob": 0.6517,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.717,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "under",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Vele\u017e",
        "home": "Posu\u0161je"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.090149,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1286,
        "implied_prob": 0.627,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.701,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1389095,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T14:55:51.336341+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Premijer Liga Bosnia Premijer Liga Bosnia — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 27 5 4 86
2 Zrinjski 36 21 8 7 71
3 FK Sarajevo 36 19 8 9 65
4 Velež 36 14 9 13 51
5 Široki Brijeg 36 11 12 13 45
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 10 12 14 42
7 Radnik Bijeljina 36 8 11 17 35
8 Sloga Doboj 36 8 10 18 34
9 Posušje 36 8 10 18 34
10 Rudar Prijedor 36 7 9 20 30
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 76 20 +56 86
2 FK Sarajevo 36 54 37 +17 65
3 Zrinjski 36 48 25 +23 71
4 Široki Brijeg 36 37 48 -11 45
5 Velež 36 36 35 +1 51
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 34 37 -3 42
7 Rudar Prijedor 36 31 55 -24 30
8 Radnik Bijeljina 36 27 45 -18 35
9 Posušje 36 25 41 -16 34
10 Sloga Doboj 36 21 46 -25 34