Statistik / Bola Sepak / Jerman. Bundesliga / 1.FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim

1.FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim Statistics & Analysis

1.FC Köln 1.FC Köln
May 10, 2026 - 15:30
1 2.08
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 46%
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 1.FC Köln 1. FC Heidenheim ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-3 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2637506

Closing Odds 3.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result 1. FC Heidenheim win · 1.FC Köln 1–3 1. FC Heidenheim
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai 1.FC Köln (1X2) jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada 1.FC Köln (1X2) kira-kira 6.5 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
1.FC Köln (1X2) 55.5 49.0 +6.5
Lukis (1X2) 23.4 23.1 +0.3
1. FC Heidenheim (1X2) 21.1 27.9 -6.8
Lebih 2.5 gol 64.5 65.5 -1.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 35.5 34.5 +1.0
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 55.5% pada 1.FC Köln (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 49.0%. Bezanya — kira-kira 6.5 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
1.FC Köln (1X2) 1.97 1.97 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 4.18 4.18 0.0
1. FC Heidenheim (1X2) 3.46 3.46 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.47 1.47 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.79 2.79 0.0

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: 1.FC Köln vs 1. FC Heidenheim
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 55.5% · Draw 23.4% · Away 21.1%
  • xG (showing): 1.FC Köln 2.08 — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.24 (total xG ≈ 3.32)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.5% · Over 2.5 64.5%); BTTS No (Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Primary Bet

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

May 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Bayern München 34 28 5 1 89
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 22 7 5 73
3 RB Leipzig 34 20 5 9 65
4 VfB Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 59
7 SC Freiburg 34 13 8 13 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11 11 12 44
9 FC Augsburg 34 12 7 15 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 34 10 10 14 40
11 Union Berlin 34 10 9 15 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 9 11 14 38
13 Hamburger SV 34 9 11 14 38
14 1.FC Köln 34 7 11 16 32
15 Werder Bremen 34 8 8 18 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 26
18 FC St. Pauli 34 6 8 20 26
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Bayern München 34 122 36 +86 89
2 VfB Stuttgart 34 71 49 +22 62
3 Borussia Dortmund 34 70 34 +36 73
4 Bayer Leverkusen 34 68 47 +21 59
5 RB Leipzig 34 66 47 +19 65
6 1899 Hoffenheim 34 65 52 +13 61
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 61 65 -4 44
8 SC Freiburg 34 51 57 -6 47
9 1.FC Köln 34 49 63 -14 32
10 FC Augsburg 34 45 61 -16 43
11 VfL Wolfsburg 34 45 69 -24 29
12 FSV Mainz 05 34 44 53 -9 40
13 Union Berlin 34 44 58 -14 39
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 42 53 -11 38
15 1. FC Heidenheim 34 41 72 -31 26
16 Hamburger SV 34 40 54 -14 38
17 Werder Bremen 34 37 60 -23 32
18 FC St. Pauli 34 29 60 -31 26
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Bayern München 34 97.2 37.9 +59.3 89
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 63.4 38.9 +24.5 73
3 Bayer Leverkusen 34 64.0 44.8 +19.2 59
4 RB Leipzig 34 66.3 50.2 +16.1 65
5 VfB Stuttgart 34 60.1 49.8 +10.3 62
6 1899 Hoffenheim 34 55.1 51.4 +3.7 61
7 SC Freiburg 34 48.6 47.8 +0.8 47
8 FSV Mainz 05 34 52.9 54.6 -1.7 40
9 1.FC Köln 34 50.9 54.9 -4.0 32
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 45.4 50.1 -4.7 44
11 Union Berlin 34 44.9 52.2 -7.3 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 42.7 52.5 -9.8 38
13 Werder Bremen 34 40.4 54.3 -13.9 32
14 VfL Wolfsburg 34 47.1 61.8 -14.7 29
15 1. FC Heidenheim 34 47.5 63.4 -15.9 26
16 FC Augsburg 34 45.2 62.6 -17.4 43
17 Hamburger SV 34 38.3 56.9 -18.6 38
18 FC St. Pauli 34 30.5 56.2 -25.7 26