Statistik / Bola Sepak / Netherlands. Eredivisie / Excelsior vs FC Volendam

Excelsior vs FC Volendam Statistics & Analysis

Excelsior Excelsior
May 10, 2026 - 14:45
1 2.05
1 1.02
xG Accuracy: 74%
FC Volendam FC Volendam
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 Kurang 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Excelsior Lukis ✖ Incorrect
  • Cerapan skor tepat 2-1 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON 
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "de1fe38aa3f91cf5008d927eeeb059ee9b87cf396aee0f47d70fa18577be18dd",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.02,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1682,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2329,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.94,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.29,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.67,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.05,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5988,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Excelsior or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Excelsior",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Excelsior"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.02,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Excelsior",
      "confidence": 59.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Excelsior",
        "edge": 0.0545,
        "edge_gap": 0.3656,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5441,
        "model_prob": 0.5987,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 16.8,
          "draw": 23.3,
          "home": 59.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Excelsior"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.76
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.76,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Excelsior Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.84,
        "market_odds": 1.76,
        "model_odds": 1.67,
        "overround": 4.4,
        "prob_edge": 3.1,
        "value_pct": 5.4,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 12,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 63.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 87.1,
        "no_prob": 43.0,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 57.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 57.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.02,
        "home_expected": 2.05,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.9
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Excelsior or Draw",
            "prob": 83.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Excelsior or FC Volendam",
            "prob": 76.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FC Volendam",
            "prob": 40.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Excelsior or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 83.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 16.8,
        "draw_pct": 23.3,
        "home_pct": 59.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Excelsior"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.07,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 59.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.07,
        "under_prob": 40.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 5.4,
        "implied_prob": 56.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Excelsior Win",
        "model_prob": 59.9,
        "odds": 1.76
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.9
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.05,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.032,
        "ev_yes": -0.0766,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.032,
        "no_prob": 43.0,
        "sort_key": 10028.8,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 57.0
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0105,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5441,
        "max_ev": 0.0105,
        "model_prob": 0.5987,
        "side_label": "Excelsior",
        "sort_key": 5208.4,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0114,
        "ev_under": -0.0004,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0004,
        "over_prob": 59.2,
        "sort_key": 4049.944,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 40.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 809.7,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.9
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 416,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/416.webp",
      "away_team_name": "FC Volendam",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
      "country_name": "Netherlands",
      "fixture_id": 1381156,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 196,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/196.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Excelsior",
      "league_country": "Netherlands",
      "league_id": 88,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
      "league_name": "Eredivisie",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 14:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1925,
            "best_odd": 4.95,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0048,
            "ev": -0.0663,
            "implied_prob": 0.1935,
            "model_prob": 0.1683,
            "p_final": 0.1886
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2868,
            "best_odd": 3.65,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0084,
            "ev": -0.073,
            "implied_prob": 0.2624,
            "model_prob": 0.233,
            "p_final": 0.254
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5509,
            "best_odd": 1.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.03,
            "ev": 0.0105,
            "implied_prob": 0.5441,
            "model_prob": 0.5987,
            "p_final": 0.5742
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.4,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": 0.0231,
          "edge_yes": -0.0231,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.032,
          "ev_yes": -0.0766,
          "implied_no": 0.4069,
          "implied_yes": 0.5931,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.67,
          "best_under_odd": 2.45,
          "edge_over": 0.0076,
          "edge_under": -0.0076,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0114,
          "ev_under": -0.0004,
          "implied_over": 0.5844,
          "implied_under": 0.4156,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.07,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.032,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [],
        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.57,
          "draw_prob": 0.233,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5987,
          "over_prob": 0.592,
          "total_xg": 3.07,
          "under_prob": 0.408,
          "xg_diff": 1.03
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.032,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4069,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.43,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.03,
          "ev": 0.0105,
          "implied_prob": 0.5441,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5987,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Excelsior"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0231,
          "ev": 0.032,
          "implied_prob": 0.4069,
          "model_prob": 0.43,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": -0.0076,
          "ev": -0.0004,
          "implied_prob": 0.4156,
          "model_prob": 0.408,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1381156,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.032,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1683,
        "draw": 0.233,
        "home": 0.5987
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "FC Volendam",
        "home": "Excelsior"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1381156,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T14:44:08.854408+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
  • Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
  • Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
  • Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.

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Eredivisie Eredivisie — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN MP M S K PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 27 3 4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 65
3 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 59
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 58
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 56
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 53
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 52
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 51
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 43
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 39
12 GO Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 38
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 38
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 37
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 37
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 32
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 29
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 19
# PASUKAN MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 101 45 +56 84
2 NEC Nijmegen 34 77 53 +24 59
3 Feyenoord 34 70 44 +26 65
4 Ajax 34 62 41 +21 56
5 Twente 34 59 40 +19 58
6 AZ Alkmaar 34 58 51 +7 52
7 Heerenveen 34 57 53 +4 51
8 Utrecht 34 55 42 +13 53
9 GO Ahead Eagles 34 54 53 +1 38
10 Groningen 34 49 45 +4 48
11 Telstar 34 49 55 -6 37
12 Fortuna Sittard 34 49 63 -14 39
13 PEC Zwolle 34 44 71 -27 37
14 Excelsior 34 43 56 -13 38
15 Sparta Rotterdam 34 40 62 -22 43
16 FC Volendam 34 35 55 -20 32
17 NAC Breda 34 35 58 -23 29
18 Heracles 34 35 85 -50 19
# PASUKAN MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 69.7 37.3 +32.4 84
2 Feyenoord 34 67.1 37.3 +29.8 65
3 Twente 34 60.3 36.3 +24.0 58
4 AZ Alkmaar 34 61.9 42.5 +19.4 52
5 NEC Nijmegen 34 61.6 45.9 +15.7 59
6 Groningen 34 58.0 46.2 +11.8 48
7 Heerenveen 34 58.3 49.4 +8.9 51
8 Ajax 34 53.4 45.6 +7.8 56
9 Utrecht 34 50.0 44.4 +5.6 53
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 41.8 48.0 -6.2 43
11 NAC Breda 34 39.4 50.3 -10.9 29
12 Telstar 34 47.3 58.3 -11.0 37
13 Excelsior 34 44.1 58.3 -14.2 38
14 Fortuna Sittard 34 39.9 58.5 -18.6 39
15 GO Ahead Eagles 34 41.7 62.4 -20.7 38
16 PEC Zwolle 34 36.2 58.6 -22.4 37
17 FC Volendam 34 34.5 59.3 -24.8 32
18 Heracles 34 39.1 65.7 -26.6 19
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