Groningen vs Excelsior Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.2119,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2193,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.72,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.56,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.76,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.27,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5688,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Groningen or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Groningen",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Groningen"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.36,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Groningen",
      "confidence": 56.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : Groningen",
        "edge": 0.018,
        "edge_gap": 0.3491,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5505,
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        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 21.9,
          "home": 56.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Groningen"
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          "odd": 1.75
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          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 1.75
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        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 1.74
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        {
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          "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
          "odd": 1.73
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        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 1.73
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        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
          "odd": 1.71
        },
        {
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          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 1.7
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      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
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        "best_odds": 1.75,
        "bookmaker_affi": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
        "bookmaker_id": 11,
        "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
        "display_market": "Groningen Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.82,
        "market_odds": 1.72,
        "model_odds": 1.76,
        "overround": 5.8,
        "prob_edge": -0.3,
        "value_pct": -0.6,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 74.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 89.7,
        "no_prob": 32.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 67.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 67.7
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        "home_expected": 2.27,
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            "home": 2,
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      "double_chance": {
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            "label": "Groningen or Draw",
            "prob": 78.8
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          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Groningen or Excelsior",
            "prob": 78.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Excelsior",
            "prob": 43.1
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        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Groningen or Draw",
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        "home_pct": 56.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Groningen"
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        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 70.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "under_prob": 29.8
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
        "edge": -0.6,
        "implied_prob": 57.1,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Groningen Win",
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        "odds": 1.75
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.3
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    },
    "home_xg": 2.27,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
      "best_odds": 1.71,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Home Groningen",
      "edge": -1.6,
      "ev": 16.3,
      "probability": 56.9
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    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "featured": true,
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        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 67.7
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      "away_team_id": 196,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/196.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Excelsior",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
      "country_name": "Netherlands",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 202,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/202.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Groningen",
      "league_country": "Netherlands",
      "league_id": 88,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/88.webp",
      "league_name": "Eredivisie",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-02 16:45:00",
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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        "score": 8.0
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.5522,
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            "p_final": 0.5618
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_no": -0.0873,
          "edge_yes": 0.0873,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "implied_under": 0.4098,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.63,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
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      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 7.5
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "draw_prob": 0.2194,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5686,
          "over_prob": 0.702,
          "total_xg": 3.63,
          "under_prob": 0.298,
          "xg_diff": 0.91
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        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": 0.0096,
          "ev": -0.0394,
          "implied_prob": 0.5522,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5686,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Groningen"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.677,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1118,
          "ev": 0.1583,
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          "model_prob": 0.702,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1381149,
      "match_regime": {
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.212,
        "draw": 0.2194,
        "home": 0.5686
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Excelsior",
        "home": "Groningen"
      },
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1583,
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.702,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-03T10:08:43.480810+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}