Statistik / Bola Sepak / England. Liga Perdana Inggeris / Fulham vs Bournemouth

Fulham vs Bournemouth Statistics & Analysis

Fulham Fulham
May 09, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.65
1 1.55
xG Accuracy: 55%
Bournemouth Bournemouth
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Fulham Bournemouth ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 0-1 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1533347

Closing Odds 2.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bournemouth win · Fulham 0–1 Bournemouth
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Ayunan implisit lewat terbesar pada suapan ini kira-kira 1.2 mata peratus pada Lebih 2.5 gol antara PRE30 dan PRE1.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Fulham (1X2) kira-kira 3.3 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Fulham (1X2) 39.1 35.8 +3.3
Lukis (1X2) 26.1 26.4 -0.3
Bournemouth (1X2) 34.8 37.8 -3.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 62.0 58.9 +3.1
Bawah 2.5 gol 38.0 41.1 -3.1
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 39.1% pada Fulham (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 35.8%. Bezanya — kira-kira 3.3 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Fulham (1X2) 2.69 2.72 -0.4
Lukis (1X2) 3.72 3.68 +0.3
Bournemouth (1X2) 2.57 2.57 +0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.61 1.65 -1.2
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.42 2.36 +1.2

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.55,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3481,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2611,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.87,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.83,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.56,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.65,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3908,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Bournemouth",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Bournemouth"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.55,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Fulham",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0331,
        "edge_gap": 0.0422,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3575,
        "model_prob": 0.3906,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.8,
          "draw": 26.1,
          "home": 39.1
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
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          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.72
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.72,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Fulham Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.8,
        "market_odds": 2.72,
        "model_odds": 2.56,
        "overround": 2.8,
        "prob_edge": 2.3,
        "value_pct": 6.2,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 10,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 35,
        "away_score_rate": 78.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 35,
        "home_score_rate": 80.8,
        "no_prob": 35.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 65.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 65.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.55,
        "home_expected": 1.65,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 6.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Fulham or Draw",
            "prob": 65.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Fulham or Bournemouth",
            "prob": 73.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Bournemouth",
            "prob": 60.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Fulham or Bournemouth",
        "pick_prob": 73.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.8,
        "draw_pct": 26.1,
        "home_pct": 39.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Fulham"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.2,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 62.0,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 62.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.2,
        "under_prob": 38.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 6.4,
        "implied_prob": 36.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Fulham Win",
        "model_prob": 39.1,
        "odds": 2.72
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.65,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.023,
        "ev_under": -0.0728,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.023,
        "over_prob": 62.0,
        "sort_key": 5218.4,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 38.0,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0108,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3575,
        "max_ev": 0.0108,
        "model_prob": 0.3906,
        "side_label": "Fulham",
        "sort_key": 5208.64,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.09,
        "ev_yes": -0.025,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.025,
        "no_prob": 35.0,
        "sort_key": 1793.75,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 65.0
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 811.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.4
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 35,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/35.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bournemouth",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1379322,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 36,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/36.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Fulham",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 39,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Perdana Inggeris",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
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        ],
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4298,
            "best_odd": 2.57,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0129,
            "ev": -0.0608,
            "implied_prob": 0.3783,
            "model_prob": 0.3484,
            "p_final": 0.3655
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2986,
            "best_odd": 3.68,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0009,
            "ev": -0.0312,
            "implied_prob": 0.2642,
            "model_prob": 0.2611,
            "p_final": 0.2633
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4277,
            "best_odd": 2.72,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0142,
            "ev": 0.0108,
            "implied_prob": 0.3575,
            "model_prob": 0.3906,
            "p_final": 0.3716
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.6,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": -0.0178,
          "edge_yes": 0.0178,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.09,
          "ev_yes": -0.025,
          "implied_no": 0.3678,
          "implied_yes": 0.6322,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.65,
          "best_under_odd": 2.44,
          "edge_over": 0.0201,
          "edge_under": -0.0201,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.023,
          "ev_under": -0.0728,
          "implied_over": 0.5999,
          "implied_under": 0.4001,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.2,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.023,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.65,
          "draw_prob": 0.2611,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3906,
          "over_prob": 0.62,
          "total_xg": 3.2,
          "under_prob": 0.38,
          "xg_diff": 0.1
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.023,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.5999,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.62,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0142,
          "ev": 0.0108,
          "implied_prob": 0.3575,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3906,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Fulham"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0178,
          "ev": -0.025,
          "implied_prob": 0.6322,
          "model_prob": 0.65,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0201,
          "ev": 0.023,
          "implied_prob": 0.5999,
          "model_prob": 0.62,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1379322,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.023,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3484,
        "draw": 0.2611,
        "home": 0.3906
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bournemouth",
        "home": "Fulham"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379322,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:59:07.796127+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Liga Perdana Inggeris Liga Perdana Inggeris — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 85
2 Manchester City 38 23 9 6 78
3 Manchester United 38 20 11 7 71
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 65
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 60
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 57
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 14 11 13 53
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 53
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 52
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 52
12 Newcastle United 38 14 7 17 49
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 49
14 Leeds United 38 11 14 13 47
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 45
16 Nottingham Forest 38 11 11 16 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur 38 10 11 17 41
18 West Ham United 38 10 9 19 39
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 3 11 24 20
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Manchester City 38 77 35 +42 78
2 Arsenal 38 71 27 +44 85
3 Manchester United 38 69 50 +19 71
4 Liverpool 38 63 53 +10 60
5 Chelsea 38 58 52 +6 52
6 Bournemouth 38 58 54 +4 57
7 Aston Villa 38 56 49 +7 65
8 Brentford 38 55 52 +3 53
9 Newcastle United 38 53 55 -2 49
10 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 52 46 +6 53
11 Leeds United 38 49 56 -7 47
12 Nottingham Forest 38 48 51 -3 44
13 Tottenham Hotspur 38 48 57 -9 41
14 Everton 38 47 50 -3 49
15 Fulham 38 47 51 -4 52
16 West Ham United 38 46 65 -19 39
17 Sunderland 38 42 48 -6 54
18 Crystal Palace 38 41 51 -10 45
19 Burnley 38 38 75 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 27 68 -41 20
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Arsenal 38 64.5 28.8 +35.7 85
2 Manchester City 38 68.8 42.6 +26.2 78
3 Manchester United 38 64.7 48.5 +16.2 71
4 Liverpool 38 60.1 46.9 +13.2 60
5 Chelsea 38 63.5 51.9 +11.6 52
6 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 57.4 49.9 +7.5 53
7 Crystal Palace 38 57.6 50.2 +7.4 45
8 Bournemouth 38 62.5 56.8 +5.7 57
9 Newcastle United 38 57.2 51.5 +5.7 49
10 Brentford 38 59.3 54.3 +5.0 53
11 Leeds United 38 54.4 55.1 -0.7 47
12 Fulham 38 47.9 52.2 -4.3 52
13 Aston Villa 38 47.6 54.3 -6.7 65
14 Nottingham Forest 38 46.3 56.3 -10.0 44
15 Everton 38 45.9 55.9 -10.0 49
16 Tottenham Hotspur 38 40.8 52.2 -11.4 41
17 West Ham United 38 45.1 56.8 -11.7 39
18 Sunderland 38 39.1 53.4 -14.3 54
19 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 35.5 58.1 -22.6 20
20 Burnley 38 32.3 74.9 -42.6 22