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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sassuolo Parma ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "224602b8e47540373f86f7546ab96ef0e080240b10435333de3d409e0456edd6",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.77,
"away_win_prob": 0.5524,
"btts_no_prob": 0.477,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2617,
"fair_odds_away": 1.81,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.82,
"fair_odds_home": 5.38,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.95,
"home_win_prob": 0.186,
"over_25_prob": 0.511,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.489
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sassuolo",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Sassuolo",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sassuolo"
},
"away_xg": 1.77,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sassuolo",
"confidence": 55.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Sassuolo",
"edge": 0.1813,
"edge_gap": 0.2907,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3711,
"model_prob": 0.5524,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 55.2,
"draw": 26.2,
"home": 18.6
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Sassuolo"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.61
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.61,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sassuolo Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.69,
"market_odds": 2.61,
"model_odds": 1.81,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 16.9,
"value_pct": 44.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 83.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 16,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 61.3,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.77,
"home_expected": 0.95,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Parma or Draw",
"prob": 44.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Parma or Sassuolo",
"prob": 73.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sassuolo",
"prob": 81.4
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Sassuolo",
"pick_prob": 81.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 55.2,
"draw_pct": 26.2,
"home_pct": 18.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sassuolo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.72,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 51.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.72,
"under_prob": 48.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 44.2,
"implied_prob": 38.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Sassuolo Win",
"model_prob": 55.2,
"odds": 2.61
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sassuolo",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Parma",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.98,
"gap_pp": -15.4,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 18.58
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.91,
"gap_pp": -2.74,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.17
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.11,
"gap_pp": 18.13,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 55.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.26,
"gap_pp": 0.84,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 51.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.74,
"gap_pp": -0.84,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 48.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.35,
"early": 3.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.61,
"early": 2.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.26,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.74,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.7
}
},
"home_xg": 0.95,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.61,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Away Sassuolo",
"edge": 16.9,
"ev": 44.2,
"probability": 55.2
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1235,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.3,
"text": "+12.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3711,
"max_ev": 0.1235,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.3,
"text": "+12.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5524,
"side_label": "Sassuolo",
"sort_key": 10261.15,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.068,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0513,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.068,
"over_prob": 51.1,
"sort_key": 10061.2,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 48.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0255,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0847,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.5,
"text": "-8.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0255,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"sort_key": 5220.4,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 11.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 488,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/488.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sassuolo",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1378241,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 523,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/523.webp",
"home_team_name": "Parma",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_id": 135,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3276,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0594,
"ev": 0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.3711,
"model_prob": 0.5524,
"p_final": 0.4305
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2877,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.2891,
"model_prob": 0.2617,
"p_final": 0.2812
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3461,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0533,
"ev": -0.1834,
"implied_prob": 0.3398,
"model_prob": 0.1858,
"p_final": 0.2865
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"edge_no": 0.0192,
"edge_yes": -0.0192,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0255,
"ev_yes": -0.0847,
"implied_no": 0.4578,
"implied_yes": 0.5422,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.09,
"best_under_odd": 1.94,
"edge_over": 0.0278,
"edge_under": -0.0278,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.068,
"ev_under": -0.0513,
"implied_over": 0.4832,
"implied_under": 0.5168,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1235,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"draw_prob": 0.2617,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5524,
"over_prob": 0.511,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"under_prob": 0.489,
"xg_diff": 0.82
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0594,
"ev": 0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.3711,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5524,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sassuolo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.4578,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.4832,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1378241,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1235,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5524,
"draw": 0.2617,
"home": 0.1858
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sassuolo",
"home": "Parma"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.068221,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.3711,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5524,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sassuolo",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1378241,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:19:22.638208+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Serie A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 87 |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 76 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 73 |
| 4 | Como | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 71 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 70 |
| 6 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 69 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 56 |
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 50 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 49 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 45 |
| 13 | Parma | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 45 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 42 |
| 16 | Genoa | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 |
| 17 | Lecce | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 34 |
| 19 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 21 |
| 20 | Pisa | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 87 |
| 2 | Como | 38 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 71 |
| 3 | Juventus | 38 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 69 |
| 4 | AS Roma | 38 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 73 |
| 5 | Napoli | 38 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 76 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 38 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 70 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 56 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 38 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 49 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 50 |
| 11 | Torino | 38 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 45 |
| 12 | Lazio | 38 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 54 |
| 13 | Fiorentina | 38 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 42 |
| 14 | Genoa | 38 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 41 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 38 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 43 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 38 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 34 |
| 17 | Parma | 38 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 45 |
| 18 | Lecce | 38 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 38 |
| 19 | Pisa | 38 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 18 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 71.5 | 34.8 | +36.7 | 87 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 65.6 | 32.0 | +33.6 | 69 |
| 3 | Como | 38 | 62.2 | 33.8 | +28.4 | 71 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 59.6 | 43.3 | +16.3 | 70 |
| 5 | AS Roma | 38 | 55.4 | 39.1 | +16.3 | 73 |
| 6 | Atalanta | 38 | 57.3 | 42.2 | +15.1 | 59 |
| 7 | Napoli | 38 | 49.7 | 36.7 | +13.0 | 76 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 49.8 | 47.5 | +2.3 | 42 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 44.0 | 45.8 | -1.8 | 56 |
| 10 | Lazio | 38 | 41.0 | 43.5 | -2.5 | 54 |
| 11 | Genoa | 38 | 45.1 | 48.8 | -3.7 | 41 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 44.8 | 52.8 | -8.0 | 45 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 42.0 | 52.2 | -10.2 | 50 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 38 | 42.6 | 55.3 | -12.7 | 49 |
| 15 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 35.2 | 48.6 | -13.4 | 21 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 38 | 36.9 | 53.3 | -16.4 | 43 |
| 17 | Pisa | 38 | 39.6 | 58.9 | -19.3 | 18 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 38 | 35.0 | 57.8 | -22.8 | 34 |
| 19 | Parma | 38 | 32.2 | 56.6 | -24.4 | 45 |
| 20 | Lecce | 38 | 30.9 | 57.4 | -26.5 | 38 |
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