Statistik / Bola Sepak / Itali. Serie A / Lazio vs Inter Milan

Lazio vs Inter Milan Statistics & Analysis

Lazio Lazio
May 09, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.65
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 40%
Inter Milan Inter Milan
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Lazio Inter Milan ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 0-3 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1629627

Closing Odds 4.06
AI Fair Odds 2.27
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Inter Milan win · Lazio 0–3 Inter Milan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 44.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Lazio (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lazio (1X2) kira-kira 20.1 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Lazio (1X2) 44.0 23.9 +20.1
Lukis (1X2) 27.0 27.8 -0.7
Inter Milan (1X2) 29.0 48.3 -19.4
Lebih 2.5 gol 56.8 52.3 +4.5
Bawah 2.5 gol 43.2 47.7 -4.5
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 44.0% pada Lazio (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 23.9%. Bezanya — kira-kira 20.1 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Lazio (1X2) 4.06 4.06 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Inter Milan (1X2) 2.01 2.01 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.87 1.87 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.05 2.05 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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  "facts": {
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      "away_win_prob": 0.29,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2702,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.45,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.7,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.27,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.65,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4398,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Inter Milan",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Inter Milan"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.31,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Lazio",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.201,
        "edge_gap": 0.1506,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2392,
        "model_prob": 0.4402,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 29.0,
          "draw": 27.0,
          "home": 44.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.06
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 4.06,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Lazio Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 4.18,
        "market_odds": 4.06,
        "model_odds": 2.27,
        "overround": 3.0,
        "prob_edge": 19.4,
        "value_pct": 78.9,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 17,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 35,
        "away_score_rate": 73.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 15,
        "home_failed_to_score": 15,
        "home_played": 35,
        "home_score_rate": 80.8,
        "no_prob": 39.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 60.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 60.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.31,
        "home_expected": 1.65,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Lazio or Draw",
            "prob": 71.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Lazio or Inter Milan",
            "prob": 73.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Inter Milan",
            "prob": 56.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Lazio or Inter Milan",
        "pick_prob": 73.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 29.0,
        "draw_pct": 27.0,
        "home_pct": 44.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Lazio"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.96,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 56.8,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 56.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.96,
        "under_prob": 43.2
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 78.9,
        "implied_prob": 24.6,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Lazio Win",
        "model_prob": 44.1,
        "odds": 4.06
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.2
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.65,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0792,
        "ev_under": -0.1144,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0792,
        "over_prob": 56.8,
        "sort_key": 10221.28,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 43.2,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0853,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2392,
        "max_ev": 0.0853,
        "model_prob": 0.4402,
        "side_label": "Lazio",
        "sort_key": 10076.77,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1486,
        "ev_yes": 0.0285,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0285,
        "no_prob": 39.6,
        "sort_key": 5222.8,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 60.5
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 813.6,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.2
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 505,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/505.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Inter Milan",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1378217,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 487,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/487.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Lazio",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_id": 135,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie A",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3193,
            "best_odd": 2.01,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0618,
            "ev": -0.1529,
            "implied_prob": 0.4832,
            "model_prob": 0.2897,
            "p_final": 0.4214
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2967,
            "best_odd": 3.5,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0022,
            "ev": -0.0364,
            "implied_prob": 0.2775,
            "model_prob": 0.2701,
            "p_final": 0.2753
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1397,
            "best_odd": 4.06,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0281,
            "ev": 0.0853,
            "implied_prob": 0.2392,
            "model_prob": 0.4402,
            "p_final": 0.2673
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.15,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.7,
          "edge_no": -0.0465,
          "edge_yes": 0.0475,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1486,
          "ev_yes": 0.0285,
          "implied_no": 0.4425,
          "implied_yes": 0.5575,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.9,
          "best_under_odd": 2.05,
          "edge_over": 0.0453,
          "edge_under": -0.0453,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0792,
          "ev_under": -0.1144,
          "implied_over": 0.5227,
          "implied_under": 0.4773,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.96,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0853,
      "confidence": 5.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.605,
          "draw_prob": 0.2701,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4402,
          "over_prob": 0.568,
          "total_xg": 2.96,
          "under_prob": 0.432,
          "xg_diff": 0.34
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0281,
          "ev": 0.0853,
          "implied_prob": 0.2392,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4402,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Lazio"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0475,
          "ev": 0.0285,
          "implied_prob": 0.5575,
          "model_prob": 0.605,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0453,
          "ev": 0.0792,
          "implied_prob": 0.5227,
          "model_prob": 0.568,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1378217,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0853,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2897,
        "draw": 0.2701,
        "home": 0.4402
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Inter Milan",
        "home": "Lazio"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.056232,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0792,
        "implied_prob": 0.5227,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.568,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1378217,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T12:59:04.982484+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Serie A Serie A — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Inter Milan 38 27 6 5 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 18
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Inter Milan 38 89 35 +54 87
2 Como 38 65 29 +36 71
3 Juventus 38 61 34 +27 69
4 AS Roma 38 59 31 +28 73
5 Napoli 38 58 36 +22 76
6 AC Milan 38 53 35 +18 70
7 Atalanta 38 51 36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 49 46 +3 56
9 Sassuolo 38 46 50 -4 49
10 Udinese 38 45 48 -3 50
11 Torino 38 44 63 -19 45
12 Lazio 38 41 40 +1 54
13 Fiorentina 38 41 50 -9 42
14 Genoa 38 41 51 -10 41
15 Cagliari 38 40 53 -13 43
16 Cremonese 38 32 57 -25 34
17 Parma 38 28 46 -18 45
18 Lecce 38 28 50 -22 38
19 Pisa 38 26 71 -45 18
20 Verona 38 25 61 -36 21
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Inter Milan 38 71.5 34.8 +36.7 87
2 Juventus 38 65.6 32.0 +33.6 69
3 Como 38 62.2 33.8 +28.4 71
4 AC Milan 38 59.6 43.3 +16.3 70
5 AS Roma 38 55.4 39.1 +16.3 73
6 Atalanta 38 57.3 42.2 +15.1 59
7 Napoli 38 49.7 36.7 +13.0 76
8 Fiorentina 38 49.8 47.5 +2.3 42
9 Bologna 38 44.0 45.8 -1.8 56
10 Lazio 38 41.0 43.5 -2.5 54
11 Genoa 38 45.1 48.8 -3.7 41
12 Torino 38 44.8 52.8 -8.0 45
13 Udinese 38 42.0 52.2 -10.2 50
14 Sassuolo 38 42.6 55.3 -12.7 49
15 Verona 38 35.7 50.4 -14.7 21
16 Cagliari 38 38.6 53.8 -15.2 43
17 Pisa 38 39.6 58.9 -19.3 18
18 Cremonese 38 35.0 57.8 -22.8 34
19 Parma 38 32.2 56.6 -24.4 45
20 Lecce 38 30.9 57.4 -26.5 38