The model missed the final outcome (Réal du Faso win 1–3).
The model had projected Salitas at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Salitas Réal du Faso ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Salitas; match finished Réal du Faso
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Réal du Faso win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Salitas 1.32 — Réal du Faso 1.28
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Réal du Faso win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Réal du Faso win · Salitas 1–3 Réal du Faso
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or R\u00e9al du Faso and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "R\u00e9al du Faso"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": 0.0124,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.55
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
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"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -3.1,
"value_pct": -7.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Salitas or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Salitas or R\u00e9al du Faso",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or R\u00e9al du Faso",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Salitas or R\u00e9al du Faso",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Salitas"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -7.9,
"implied_prob": 39.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Salitas Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 2.55
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.71,
"draw": 30.43,
"home": 34.85
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 15:29:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 14:59:37",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Salitas",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.85,
"gap_pp": 1.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.43,
"gap_pp": -0.77,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.71,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.01,
"gap_pp": 15.19,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.99,
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
"closing": 2.92,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.125,
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"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1429,
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"edge": 0.021,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.1393,
"best_odd": 2.745,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3523
},
"p_final": 0.3523,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.1,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0329,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3882,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 38.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2593,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3882,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10499.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
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},
"p_final": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.199,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0427,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.6,
"text": "-28.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.6,
"text": "+22.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2263,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10203.67,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0973,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3485,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0973,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Salitas",
"sort_key": 1775.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"alert_team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 1.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.26,
"hero_label": "Salitas",
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"market_team": "Salitas",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Salitas",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Salitas at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Salitas as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Salitas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0973,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3485,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 24.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 1.26,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 1.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"steam_team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Salitas at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Salitas as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Salitas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0973,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3485,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0797,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Salitas 1.32 xG vs R\u00e9al du Faso 1.28 \u2192 Salitas 36.1%",
"Market: Salitas ~34.9% implied",
"Market Steam: R\u00e9al du Faso \u2193 -8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Salitas, but sharp money moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.26,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Salitas",
"market_prob": 34.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.78,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"market_prob": 34.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.95,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.95,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.07,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.07,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 1.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Salitas",
"market_prob_pct": 34.85,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e9al du Faso"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Salitas",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Salitas 1.32 xG vs R\u00e9al du Faso 1.28 \u2192 Salitas 36.1%",
"Market: Salitas ~34.9% implied",
"Market Steam: R\u00e9al du Faso \u2193 -8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Salitas, but sharp money moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 1.26,
"hero_label": "Salitas",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "R\u00e9al du Faso odds shortened \u2193 -8.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on R\u00e9al du Faso, with odds shortening by 8.6%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on R\u00e9al du Faso \u2014 odds shortened by 8.6%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on R\u00e9al du Faso, with odds shortening by 8.6%.",
"Buying interest on R\u00e9al du Faso \u2014 odds shortened by 8.6%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, R\u00e9al du Faso has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 8.6%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on R\u00e9al du Faso."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 1.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Salitas",
"largest_gap_pp": 1.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 1.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.26,
"edge_pp": 1.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Salitas",
"market_prob_pct": 34.85,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.78,
"edge_pp": -0.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.43,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.47,
"edge_pp": -0.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"market_prob_pct": 34.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on R\u00e9al du Faso \u2014 odds shortened by 8.6%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Salitas (34.9%).",
"However, R\u00e9al du Faso has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -8.6%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Salitas, Market \u2192 Salitas, Recent sharp money \u2192 R\u00e9al du Faso.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.22,
"closing_odds": 2.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.22,
"entry_odds": 2.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -19.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -19.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 8h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on R\u00e9al du Faso (8.6%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.50",
"3.03",
"2.56"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 8h 14m",
"pick_team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
2.56,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,5.7",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.56"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/8 sportsbooks on R\u00e9al du Faso",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 1.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-du-faso",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"away_team_id": 20029,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20029.webp",
"away_team_name": "R\u00e9al du Faso",
"away_team_public_id": "5j1GRgrjY1SyjS",
"away_team_slug": "real-du-faso",
"country_code": "BF",
"country_display_name": "Burkina-Faso",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bf.svg",
"country_id": 26,
"country_name": "Burkina-Faso",
"fixture_id": 1643340,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Burkina-Faso",
"home_team_display_name": "Salitas",
"home_team_id": 8072,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8072.webp",
"home_team_name": "Salitas",
"home_team_public_id": "2gP5fIg64pgluu",
"home_team_slug": "salitas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "salitas",
"league_country": "Burkina-Faso",
"league_country_display": "Burkina-Faso",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 Burkina Faso",
"league_id": 423,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/423.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 Burkina Faso",
"league_public_id": "1ZmsG6rqlHTJbk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 15:30:00",
"public_id": "5LYmQy041jltWa",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ouagadougou",
"venue_name": "Stade du 4 Aout"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4468,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0021,
"ev": -0.1167,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3471,
"draw": 0.3043,
"home": 0.3485
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.345
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4448,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.3043,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3471,
"draw": 0.3043,
"home": 0.3485
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3009
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4416,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0973,
"implied_prob": 0.3485,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3471,
"draw": 0.3043,
"home": 0.3485
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.354
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0482,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1998,
"alpha_yes": 0.1453,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1307,
"edge_yes": 0.1307,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0427,
"implied_no": 0.5857,
"implied_yes": 0.4143,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5579,
"p_final_yes": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1393,
"alpha_under": 0.1916,
"best_over_odd": 2.88,
"best_under_odd": 1.43,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.745,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1495,
"edge_under": -0.1495,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3882,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0329,
"ev_under": -0.2593,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1298,
"implied_over": 0.3325,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3313,
"implied_under": 0.6675,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6687,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1393,
"best_odd": 2.745,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3523
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6687,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6398
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3523,
"p_final_under": 0.6398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Salitas at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Salitas as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Salitas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +38.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward R\u00e9al du Faso, but the model still strongly favours Salitas.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0973,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3485,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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},
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"match_regime": {
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},
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],
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"teams": {
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"home": "Salitas"
},
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},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1643340,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T15:29:18.288517+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ligue 1 Burkina Faso — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USFA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | FocuSport | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Vitesse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | ASFA-Yennenga | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Rahimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Réal du Faso | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Maya | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Sporting Cascades | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | ASFB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | SONABEL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Majestic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Comoé | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Douanes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | CFFEB | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | RCK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salitas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FocuSport | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | USFA | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Vitesse | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Rahimo | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Réal du Faso | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | SONABEL | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | ASFA-Yennenga | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Sporting Cascades | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | ASFB | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Salitas | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Maya | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Douanes | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Majestic | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | RCK | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Comoé | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | CFFEB | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
