The model missed the final outcome (Panevėžys win 0–2).
The model had projected FK Žalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 FK Žalgiris Vilnius Panevėžys ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned FK Žalgiris Vilnius; match finished Panevėžys
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Panevėžys win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 1.42 — Panevėžys 1.18
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Panevėžys win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Panevėžys win · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 0–2 Panevėžys
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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],
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}
},
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"text": "+18.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2247,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -22.5,
"text": "-22.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 46.9,
"sort_key": 10167.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1772,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.7,
"text": "-17.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.071,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.1,
"text": "-7.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"sort_key": 1782.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"market_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.67,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 1.42 xG vs Panev\u0117\u017eys 1.18 \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 41.9%",
"Market: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius ~48.6% implied",
"Market Steam: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob": 41.9,
"label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob": 48.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.44,
"fair_prob": 27.41,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 30.69,
"label": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"market_prob": 26.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.12,
"fair_prob": 53.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob": 46.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.9,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 48.57,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius\u0027s win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 1.42 xG vs Panev\u0117\u017eys 1.18 \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 41.9%",
"Market: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius ~48.6% implied",
"Market Steam: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.67,
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 48.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.44,
"edge_pp": 2.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.41,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.23,
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"market_prob_pct": 26.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius (48.6%).",
"FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "panevezys",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"away_team_id": 3874,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3874.webp",
"away_team_name": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"away_team_public_id": "2X6fhUlT7qDsX2",
"away_team_slug": "panevezys",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1643225,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_display_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"home_team_id": 586,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/586.webp",
"home_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"home_team_public_id": "0UAoiE7TfoC3Lw",
"home_team_slug": "fk-zalgiris-vilnius",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fk-zalgiris-vilnius",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 10:00:00",
"public_id": "38Pa9uYoPuQQpk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2809,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2497,
"home": 0.4857
},
"model_prob": 0.307,
"p_final": 0.2765
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.289,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0859,
"implied_prob": 0.2497,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2497,
"home": 0.4857
},
"model_prob": 0.2742,
"p_final": 0.2568
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5397,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2497,
"home": 0.4857
},
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"p_final": 0.4496
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": 0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.307
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2742
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1277,
"ev": -0.2336,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.4188
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1069,
"alpha_yes": 0.1469,
"best_no_odd": 2.53,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1012,
"edge_yes": -0.1012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1866,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"ev_yes": -0.2247,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0986,
"implied_no": 0.3678,
"implied_yes": 0.6322,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1069,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3786
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"p_final": 0.6174
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3786,
"p_final_yes": 0.6174,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1954,
"alpha_under": 0.1421,
"best_over_odd": 1.52,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.455,
"edge_over": -0.1406,
"edge_under": 0.1406,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1136,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0238,
"implied_over": 0.6226,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6223,
"implied_under": 0.3774,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3777,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.6223,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5949
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3976
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5949,
"p_final_under": 0.3976,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.531,
"draw_prob": 0.2742,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4188,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1069,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.3678,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1069,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3786
},
"p_final": 0.3786,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"p_final": 0.6174
}
},
"edge": 0.1012,
"ev": 0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.3777,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.6223,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5949
},
"p_final": 0.3976,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0238,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3976
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1406,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1643225,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.307,
"draw": 0.2742,
"home": 0.4188
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"home": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.15281,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1643225,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T10:00:46.501899+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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