The model missed the final outcome (Slavia Sofia win 2–1).
The model had projected Botev Vratsa at 37.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Botev Vratsa Slavia Sofia ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Slavia Sofia win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Slavia Sofia 1.27 — Botev Vratsa 1.33
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Slavia Sofia win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Slavia Sofia win · Slavia Sofia 2–1 Botev Vratsa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "d016f809e624a7c92cbce3484df4f34b15639c62971e233451b3ef1e7ae827bc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3759,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.465,
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"dc_rho": -0.05,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
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"home_win_prob": 0.3478,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Slavia Sofia",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Slavia Sofia"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0304,
"edge_gap": 0.0287,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3762,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 27.6,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.57
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.89,
"market_odds": 2.57,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -1.3,
"value_pct": -3.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
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"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Slavia Sofia or Draw",
"prob": 62.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Slavia Sofia or Botev Vratsa",
"prob": 72.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Botev Vratsa",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Slavia Sofia or Botev Vratsa",
"pick_prob": 72.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.6,
"draw_pct": 27.6,
"home_pct": 34.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Botev Vratsa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -3.4,
"implied_prob": 38.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Botev Vratsa Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 2.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Botev Vratsa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 34.58,
"draw": 30.43,
"home": 34.99
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 08:29:31",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 08:00:44",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.99,
"gap_pp": -0.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.74
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.43,
"gap_pp": -2.79,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.64
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.58,
"gap_pp": 3.04,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.62
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.06,
"gap_pp": -0.86,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.94,
"gap_pp": 0.86,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.54,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.92,
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},
{
"closing": 2.57,
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},
{
"closing": 1.89,
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{
"closing": 1.82,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0188,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.85,
"market_prob": 0.1274,
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"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0068,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4865,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.5135,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5068
},
"p_final": 0.4932,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0158,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0628,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4932
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.089,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.9,
"text": "-8.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.218,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0045,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4441,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.218,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4487
},
"p_final": 0.4487,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0398,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0735,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5509
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0189,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0905,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0189,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 46.5,
"sort_key": 1795.275,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0778,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.8,
"text": "-7.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0778,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.8,
"text": "-7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3762,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Botev Vratsa",
"sort_key": 1780.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"alert_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.01,
"hero_label": "Botev Vratsa",
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"market_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"model_prob_pct": 37.6,
"model_team": "Botev Vratsa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Vratsa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Vratsa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Vratsa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3762,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.01,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"steam_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Vratsa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Vratsa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Vratsa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3762,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slavia Sofia 1.27 xG vs Botev Vratsa 1.33 \u2192 Botev Vratsa 37.6%",
"Market: Slavia Sofia ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Slavia Sofia odds \u2191 +9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Botev Vratsa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.21,
"fair_prob": 34.78,
"label": "Slavia Sofia",
"market_prob": 34.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.8,
"fair_prob": 27.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob": 37.59,
"label": "Botev Vratsa",
"market_prob": 34.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.89,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.89,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.11,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.11,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Botev Vratsa",
"market_prob_pct": 34.58,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Slavia Sofia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Botev Vratsa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.0,
"model_prob_pct": 37.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Botev Vratsa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Slavia Sofia 1.27 xG vs Botev Vratsa 1.33 \u2192 Botev Vratsa 37.6%",
"Market: Slavia Sofia ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Slavia Sofia odds \u2191 +9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Botev Vratsa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.01,
"hero_label": "Botev Vratsa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Slavia Sofia odds lengthened \u2191 +9.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Slavia Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Slavia Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Slavia Sofia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Slavia Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Slavia Sofia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Slavia Sofia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Botev Vratsa",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.21,
"edge_pp": -0.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.78,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Slavia Sofia",
"market_prob_pct": 34.99,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.8,
"edge_pp": -2.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.43,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.01,
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Botev Vratsa",
"market_prob_pct": 34.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Slavia Sofia \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Slavia Sofia (34.6%).",
"However, Slavia Sofia has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +9.3%, 7/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Botev Vratsa, Market \u2192 Slavia Sofia, while Slavia Sofia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.91,
"closing_odds": 2.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.91,
"entry_odds": 2.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Slavia Sofia (9.3%, 7/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.54",
"2.34",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.60 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 48m",
"pick_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.54,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.54"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/7 sportsbooks on Slavia Sofia",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Slavia Sofia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Slavia Sofia",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Slavia Sofia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "botev-vratsa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Botev Vratsa",
"away_team_id": 859,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/859.webp",
"away_team_name": "Botev Vratsa",
"away_team_public_id": "04rEFjNHjQZzHA",
"away_team_slug": "botev-vratsa",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1643222,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Slavia Sofia",
"home_team_id": 854,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/854.webp",
"home_team_name": "Slavia Sofia",
"home_team_public_id": "2vpvNt6rUf6mgF",
"home_team_slug": "slavia-sofia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "slavia-sofia",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 08:30:00",
"public_id": "4G1o9XJG0Syb9W",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4295,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3458,
"draw": 0.3043,
"home": 0.3499
},
"model_prob": 0.3762,
"p_final": 0.3588
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4311,
"best_odd": 2.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1465,
"implied_prob": 0.3043,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3458,
"draw": 0.3043,
"home": 0.3499
},
"model_prob": 0.2764,
"p_final": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4484,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.1141,
"implied_prob": 0.3499,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3458,
"draw": 0.3043,
"home": 0.3499
},
"model_prob": 0.3474,
"p_final": 0.3488
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.0333,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.3762
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.92,
"edge": -0.0661,
"ev": -0.1929,
"implied_prob": 0.3425,
"model_prob": 0.2764
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": -0.0463,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.3937,
"model_prob": 0.3474
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.218,
"alpha_yes": 0.2398,
"best_no_odd": 2.11,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0211,
"edge_yes": -0.0211,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0189,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0735,
"ev_yes": -0.0905,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0911,
"implied_no": 0.4439,
"implied_yes": 0.5561,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.218,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4487
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2398,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.005,
"ev": -0.0911,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5509
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4487,
"p_final_yes": 0.5509,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2144,
"alpha_under": 0.2144,
"best_over_odd": 1.89,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.9,
"edge_over": -0.0289,
"edge_under": 0.0289,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.089,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0878,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0628,
"implied_over": 0.5109,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5135,
"implied_under": 0.4891,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4865,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.5135,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5068
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4865,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4932
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5068,
"p_final_under": 0.4932,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.036,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Vratsa at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Vratsa as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Vratsa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botev Vratsa).",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0778,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3458,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3762,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0332,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2764,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3762,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "neutral",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
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"home": "Slavia Sofia"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1643222,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T08:29:34.406995+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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