The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Hertha BSC at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Hertha BSC Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · FC Augsburg 1.25 — Hertha BSC 1.35
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · FC Augsburg 2–2 Hertha BSC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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}
},
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"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.5,
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},
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
{
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"prob": 72.4
},
{
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 72.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 27.6,
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 10:59:38",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 10:29:35",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-34.0%"
},
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"text": "+25%+"
},
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2617,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 46.5,
"sort_key": 10355.5,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0269,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.7,
"text": "-2.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.099,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hertha BSC",
"sort_key": 1793.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "FC Augsburg",
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"market_team": "FC Augsburg",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Hertha BSC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hertha BSC at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hertha BSC as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hertha BSC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0269,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.099,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "FC Augsburg",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hertha BSC at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hertha BSC as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hertha BSC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0269,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.099,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Augsburg 1.25 xG vs Hertha BSC 1.35 \u2192 Hertha BSC 38.5%",
"Market: FC Augsburg ~31.2% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Augsburg +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hertha BSC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 33.86,
"label": "FC Augsburg",
"market_prob": 46.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob": 27.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.74,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.34,
"fair_prob": 38.54,
"label": "Hertha BSC",
"market_prob": 31.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.73,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.73,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.86,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FC Augsburg",
"market_prob_pct": 46.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Augsburg"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FC Augsburg\u0027s win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.9%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hertha BSC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FC Augsburg 1.25 xG vs Hertha BSC 1.35 \u2192 Hertha BSC 38.5%",
"Market: FC Augsburg ~31.2% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Augsburg +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hertha BSC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "FC Augsburg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about FC Augsburg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about FC Augsburg than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about FC Augsburg than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors FC Augsburg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on FC Augsburg (pricing gap 12.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "FC Augsburg",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices FC Augsburg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.21,
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FC Augsburg",
"market_prob_pct": 46.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.87,
"edge_pp": 4.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.74,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.34,
"edge_pp": 7.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hertha BSC",
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about FC Augsburg than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FC Augsburg (31.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hertha BSC, Market \u2192 FC Augsburg, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "FC Augsburg",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "FC Augsburg",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hertha-bsc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hertha BSC",
"away_team_id": 159,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/159.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hertha BSC",
"away_team_public_id": "58b57R5YAPWnwi",
"away_team_slug": "hertha-bsc",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642911,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "FC Augsburg",
"home_team_id": 170,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/170.webp",
"home_team_name": "FC Augsburg",
"home_team_public_id": "2bflXPz4IkDVuY",
"home_team_slug": "fc-augsburg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fc-augsburg",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Perlawanan Persahabatan Kelab",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 11:00:00",
"public_id": "34fTEmuhM81ldr",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Augsburg",
"venue_name": "WWK Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4003,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.312,
"draw": 0.2274,
"home": 0.4607
},
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"p_final": 0.3414
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2782,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2274,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.312,
"draw": 0.2274,
"home": 0.4607
},
"model_prob": 0.2759,
"p_final": 0.2409
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4901,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0599,
"ev": -0.2264,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.312,
"draw": 0.2274,
"home": 0.4607
},
"model_prob": 0.3385,
"p_final": 0.4008
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.85,
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": 0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.3856
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": 0.0787,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2759
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1796,
"ev": -0.3466,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3385
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1404,
"alpha_yes": 0.1931,
"best_no_odd": 3.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1473,
"edge_yes": -0.1473,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.395,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0203,
"ev_yes": -0.2617,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.118,
"implied_no": 0.3177,
"implied_yes": 0.6823,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.3184,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.339
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.6816,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.6533
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.339,
"p_final_yes": 0.6533,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1715,
"alpha_under": 0.1248,
"best_over_odd": 1.37,
"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.335,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.925,
"edge_over": -0.2084,
"edge_under": 0.2084,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3397,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1302,
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0087,
"implied_over": 0.6904,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6866,
"implied_under": 0.3096,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3134,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1715,
"best_odd": 1.335,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.6866,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6515
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1248,
"best_odd": 2.925,
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": -0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.3134,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3389
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6515,
"p_final_under": 0.3389,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hertha BSC at 38.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hertha BSC as the value side (38.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hertha BSC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced FC Augsburg, but the model still strongly favours Hertha BSC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0269,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.099,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2759,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3856,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": -0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hertha BSC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3184,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.3184,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.339
},
"p_final": 0.339,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0203,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1931,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.6816,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.6533
}
},
"edge": 0.1473,
"ev": 0.395,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1248,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.925,
"edge": 0.0255,
"market_prob": 0.3134,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1715,
"best_odd": 1.335,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.6866,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6515
},
"p_final": 0.3389,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0087,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1248,
"best_odd": 2.925,
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": -0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.3134,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3389
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2084,
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1642911,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6576,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3856,
"draw": 0.2759,
"home": 0.3385
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.395,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.395,
"implied_prob": 0.3177,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hertha BSC",
"home": "FC Augsburg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.340637,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0269,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3856,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3508771929824561,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.099,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642911,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T10:59:40.134057+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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