The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected SAT Moreno at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 SAT Moreno Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned SAT Moreno; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · SAT Moreno 1.30 — Deportivo Metalurgico 1.30
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · SAT Moreno 2–2 Deportivo Metalurgico
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Deportivo Metalurgico",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Metalurgico"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0623,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.07
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.45,
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"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": 2.6,
"value_pct": 8.1,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SAT Moreno or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SAT Moreno or Deportivo Metalurgico",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportivo Metalurgico",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "SAT Moreno or Deportivo Metalurgico",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "SAT Moreno"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 8.1,
"implied_prob": 32.6,
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"label": "Home",
"market": "SAT Moreno Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.07
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.91,
"draw": 38.14,
"home": 28.95
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 15:59:15",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 15:29:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SAT Moreno",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": 6.23,
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"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.14,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.91,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.84,
"gap_pp": 8.36,
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"closing": 2.31,
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
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},
"top5": [
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},
{
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"edge": 0.0136,
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"over": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
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"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0555,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
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"p_final": 0.4089
},
"p_final": 0.4089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
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"under": {
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"implied_prob": 0.6047,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.5,
"text": "+20.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.205,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10334.5,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0155,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4672,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5328,
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},
"p_final": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0588,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2083,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.7,
"text": "+11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1173,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10105.57,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0593,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0593,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SAT Moreno",
"sort_key": 1785.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"alert_team": "SAT Moreno",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.49,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "SAT Moreno",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SAT Moreno at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SAT Moreno as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SAT Moreno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.49,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"steam_team": "SAT Moreno",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SAT Moreno at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SAT Moreno as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SAT Moreno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SAT Moreno 1.30 xG vs Deportivo Metalurgico 1.30 \u2192 SAT Moreno 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~28.9% implied",
"Market Drift: SAT Moreno odds \u2191 +9.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SAT Moreno, but the market has moved away from SAT Moreno.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.22,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "SAT Moreno",
"market_prob": 28.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.49,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 38.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.26,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Deportivo Metalurgico",
"market_prob": 32.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.25,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.25,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.14,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "SAT Moreno"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 38.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SAT Moreno",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SAT Moreno 1.30 xG vs Deportivo Metalurgico 1.30 \u2192 SAT Moreno 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~28.9% implied",
"Market Drift: SAT Moreno odds \u2191 +9.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SAT Moreno, but the market has moved away from SAT Moreno.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.49,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "SAT Moreno odds lengthened \u2191 +9.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, SAT Moreno has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, SAT Moreno has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, SAT Moreno has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.22,
"edge_pp": 6.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SAT Moreno",
"market_prob_pct": 28.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.49,
"edge_pp": -8.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.14,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.26,
"edge_pp": 2.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Metalurgico",
"market_prob_pct": 32.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (28.9%).",
"SAT Moreno odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.2%, 1/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SAT Moreno, Market \u2192 Draw, while SAT Moreno odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.92,
"closing_odds": 2.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.92,
"entry_odds": 2.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 34m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on SAT Moreno (9.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.07",
"2.73",
"2.40"
],
"display": "3.71 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 34m",
"pick_team": "SAT Moreno",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
3.07,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.07"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "SAT Moreno",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from SAT Moreno while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "SAT Moreno",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "SAT Moreno",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "SAT Moreno",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-metalurgico",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Metalurgico",
"away_team_id": 23098,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23098.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Metalurgico",
"away_team_public_id": "5h2wcu0328x5f3",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-metalurgico",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1642031,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "SAT Moreno",
"home_team_id": 23106,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23106.webp",
"home_team_name": "SAT Moreno",
"home_team_public_id": "31dhUHl4RbrJrE",
"home_team_slug": "sat-moreno",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sat-moreno",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
"league_id": 1067,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1067.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
"league_public_id": "3CqrXH4NiPah9o",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 16:00:00",
"public_id": "57jFUnoY2W9mtP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4347,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.3291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3291,
"draw": 0.3814,
"home": 0.2895
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.339
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3927,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3291,
"draw": 0.3814,
"home": 0.2895
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.272,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3291,
"draw": 0.3814,
"home": 0.2895
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3064
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.1327,
"ev": -0.3093,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2186,
"alpha_yes": 0.1987,
"best_no_odd": 1.74,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0825,
"edge_yes": 0.0825,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2083,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.118,
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0588,
"implied_no": 0.5375,
"implied_yes": 0.4625,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5328,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5158
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4672,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4827
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5158,
"p_final_yes": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1566,
"alpha_under": 0.2153,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": 0.0888,
"edge_under": -0.0888,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0555,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1151,
"implied_over": 0.3932,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3953,
"implied_under": 0.6068,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6047,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0555,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4089
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2153,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.586
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4089,
"p_final_under": 0.586,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SAT Moreno at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SAT Moreno as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SAT Moreno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
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},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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},
"btts": {
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0588,
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"yes": {
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},
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"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0136,
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},
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1642031,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Metalurgico",
"home": "SAT Moreno"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
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"speculative_primary": false
},
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"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642031,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T15:59:17.923327+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Torneo Promocional Amateur — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SAT Moreno | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 33 |
| 2 | Defensores Glew | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| 3 | Deportivo Metalurgico | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| 4 | Barrancas UMET | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 5 | Uribelarrea | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 6 | Ezeiza | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 7 | Buenos Aires City | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 8 | Nautico Hacoaj | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 9 | Belgrano Zarate | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 10 | Alumni Los Hornos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 11 | Control Orientado | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 12 | Estrella de Berisso | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 13 | Everton La Plata | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 14 | Las Mandarinas | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 15 | Atletico Pilar | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 |
| 16 | Juventud de Bernal | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
| 17 | Provincial | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Defensores Glew | 14 | 37 | 8 | +29 | 32 |
| 2 | Deportivo Metalurgico | 14 | 32 | 10 | +22 | 32 |
| 3 | SAT Moreno | 14 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 33 |
| 4 | Nautico Hacoaj | 14 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 5 | Uribelarrea | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 29 |
| 6 | Buenos Aires City | 16 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 | Ezeiza | 16 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 26 |
| 8 | Estrella de Berisso | 14 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 9 | Barrancas UMET | 16 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 31 |
| 10 | Alumni Los Hornos | 16 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Control Orientado | 16 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 18 |
| 12 | Las Mandarinas | 16 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 14 |
| 13 | Belgrano Zarate | 16 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 22 |
| 14 | Atletico Pilar | 14 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 9 |
| 15 | Juventud de Bernal | 14 | 10 | 41 | -31 | 8 |
| 16 | Provincial | 14 | 9 | 38 | -29 | 7 |
| 17 | Everton La Plata | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 14 |
