The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Maghribi U20 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Maghribi U20 Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Tunisia U20 1.25 — Maghribi U20 1.35
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Tunisia U20 0–0 Maghribi U20
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "701642cc71b462dd5a2a7ae0ef25252754fac083a5613f01ae44b0fde7122a41",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Maghribi U20 and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Maghribi U20"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Maghribi U20",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": -0.1022,
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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],
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"label": "Away",
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"overround": 10.7,
"prob_edge": -15.3,
"value_pct": -28.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Tunisia U20 or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Tunisia U20 or Maghribi U20",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maghribi U20",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Tunisia U20 or Maghribi U20",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Maghribi U20"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 24.4,
"implied_prob": 26.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Tunisia U20 Win",
"model_prob": 32.9,
"odds": 3.78
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Maghribi U20",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.79,
"draw": 28.31,
"home": 23.9
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 17:00:05",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 12:45:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Tunisia U20",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.45,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.9,
"gap_pp": 8.98,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.31,
"gap_pp": 1.25,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.79,
"gap_pp": -10.22,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.92,
"gap_pp": 4.28,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.08,
"gap_pp": -4.28,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.78,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.9,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.93,
"implied_early_pct": 24.82,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.19,
"early": 3.5,
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"implied_delta_pp": 2.78,
"implied_early_pct": 25.53,
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},
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.79,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.86,
"implied_early_pct": 49.65,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.92,
"implied_delta_pp": -3.45,
"implied_early_pct": 47.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.8,
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"implied_delta_pp": 3.45,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": false,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0066,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4934
},
"p_final": 0.5066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0083,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0628,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5066
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0246,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0246,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5219.68,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0049,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.4593,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4593,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4642
},
"p_final": 0.4642,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2391,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.5407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5353
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0218,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5217.44,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1949,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0087,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Maghribi U20",
"sort_key": 1797.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.25,
"hero_label": "Maghribi U20",
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"market_team": "Maghribi U20",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Maghribi U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0246,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maghribi U20 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maghribi U20 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maghribi U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Maghribi U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.78 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641756 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.78 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1949,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.25,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.25,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Tunisia U20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0246,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maghribi U20 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maghribi U20 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maghribi U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Maghribi U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.78 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641756 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.78 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1949,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tunisia U20 1.25 xG vs Maghribi U20 1.35 \u2192 Maghribi U20 37.5%",
"Market: Maghribi U20 ~47.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Tunisia U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maghribi U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.95,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Tunisia U20",
"market_prob": 23.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.25,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Maghribi U20",
"market_prob": 47.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Maghribi U20",
"market_prob_pct": 47.79,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tunisia U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Maghribi U20\u0027s win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.25,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maghribi U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.3,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Maghribi U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tunisia U20 1.25 xG vs Maghribi U20 1.35 \u2192 Maghribi U20 37.5%",
"Market: Maghribi U20 ~47.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Tunisia U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maghribi U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.25,
"hero_label": "Maghribi U20",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maghribi U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maghribi U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Maghribi U20 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Maghribi U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Maghribi U20 (pricing gap 10.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.25,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Maghribi U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Maghribi U20 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.95,
"edge_pp": 8.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tunisia U20",
"market_prob_pct": 23.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.3,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.25,
"edge_pp": -10.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Maghribi U20",
"market_prob_pct": 47.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maghribi U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Maghribi U20 (47.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maghribi U20, Market \u2192 Maghribi U20, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/4",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Tunisia U20",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_team_name": "Tunisia U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "morocco-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maghribi U20",
"away_team_id": 11039,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11039.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maghribi U20",
"away_team_public_id": "4jTJe3jgXIWIXU",
"away_team_slug": "morocco-u20",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1641756,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Tunisia",
"home_team_display_name": "Tunisia U20",
"home_team_id": 11049,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11049.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tunisia U20",
"home_team_public_id": "3AHkQEVhvNim8d",
"home_team_slug": "tunisia-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tunisia-u20",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Piala Negara-Negara Afrika B-20",
"league_id": 538,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/538.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Negara-Negara Afrika B-20",
"league_public_id": "0pJ76bJgW6Xdq9",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 17:00:00",
"public_id": "3lbHrTZS3S49X6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ismailia",
"venue_name": "Suez Canal Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.508,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0519,
"ev": -0.1949,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2831,
"home": 0.239
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.426
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2944,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.085,
"implied_prob": 0.2831,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2831,
"home": 0.239
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2868
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2596,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": -0.0087,
"implied_prob": 0.239,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4779,
"draw": 0.2831,
"home": 0.239
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2623
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.1534,
"ev": -0.29,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.0642,
"ev": 0.2425,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1469,
"alpha_yes": 0.1469,
"best_no_odd": 1.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.88,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.045,
"edge_yes": 0.045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0872,
"ev_yes": 0.0246,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0628,
"implied_no": 0.5,
"implied_yes": 0.5,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0872,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4934
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5066
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4934,
"p_final_yes": 0.5066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2173,
"alpha_under": 0.2391,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.025,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.72,
"edge_over": 0.0217,
"edge_under": -0.0217,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.06,
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0793,
"implied_over": 0.4603,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4593,
"implied_under": 0.5397,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5407,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 2.025,
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4593,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4642
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2391,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.5407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5353
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4642,
"p_final_under": 0.5353,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0246,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2425,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0246,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0246,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maghribi U20 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maghribi U20 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maghribi U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Maghribi U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.78 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641756 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.78 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Maghribi U20).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1949,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2899,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0246,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0519,
"ev": -0.1949,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Maghribi U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0066,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
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},
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},
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}
},
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"action": "optional",
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"code": "thin_edge",
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maghribi U20",
"home": "Tunisia U20"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1949,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641756,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T17:00:12.470340+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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