The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Defensores de Belgrano VR at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Defensores de Belgrano VR Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores de Belgrano VR | 35.2% | 32.1% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 35.9% | -6.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Alvarado | 35.2% | 32.0% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 35.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Defensores de Belgrano VR; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Defensores de Belgrano VR by 6.2 percentage points (41.4% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Defensores de Belgrano VR 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Alvarado 35.2%
- xG · Defensores de Belgrano VR 1.30 — Alvarado 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Defensores de Belgrano VR 2.77 · Draw 2.48 · Alvarado 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Defensores de Belgrano VR 32.1% · Draw 35.9% · Alvarado 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Defensores de Belgrano VR 2.77 · Draw 2.48 · Alvarado 2.78
- Implied 1X2 · Defensores de Belgrano VR 32.1% · Draw 35.9% · Alvarado 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.48
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Defensores de Belgrano VR 2–2 Alvarado
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0739,
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"ev_display": {
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},
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"text": "-7.2%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Defensores de Belgrano VR at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Defensores de Belgrano VR as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0739,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.23,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Defensores de Belgrano VR at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Defensores de Belgrano VR as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0739,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Defensores de Belgrano VR 1.30 xG vs Alvarado 1.30 \u2192 Defensores de Belgrano VR 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~32.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Defensores de Belgrano VR +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Defensores de Belgrano VR with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"market_prob": 32.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.23,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.17,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Alvarado",
"market_prob": 32.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.47,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.47,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.88,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano VR"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 35.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Defensores de Belgrano VR 1.30 xG vs Alvarado 1.30 \u2192 Defensores de Belgrano VR 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~32.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Defensores de Belgrano VR +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Defensores de Belgrano VR with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.23,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Defensores de Belgrano VR has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Defensores de Belgrano VR has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Defensores de Belgrano VR."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Defensores de Belgrano VR has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Defensores de Belgrano VR."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
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"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
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"edge_pp": 3.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"market_prob_pct": 32.12,
"side": "home",
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"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.23,
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"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
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"label": "Alvarado",
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"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
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}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (32.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Defensores de Belgrano VR, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": 2.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
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"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.32,
"entry_odds": 2.48,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
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"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
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"at2.away_team_slug": "alvarado",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Alvarado",
"away_team_id": 1962,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1962.webp",
"away_team_name": "Alvarado",
"away_team_public_id": "2iUMjta4L9Ikog",
"away_team_slug": "alvarado",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1641280,
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"home_team_country": "Argentina",
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"home_team_id": 2426,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2426.webp",
"home_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"home_team_public_id": "4YUIdPTqTxIrrv",
"home_team_slug": "defensores-de-belgrano-vr",
"ht.home_team_slug": "defensores-de-belgrano-vr",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_id": 134,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/134.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Federal A",
"league_public_id": "48d0y0pjcpEL9D",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 18:30:00",
"public_id": "4mQht9D3E7a5w7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ramallo",
"venue_name": "Salomon Boeseldin"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.3588,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3336
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4079,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0254,
"ev": -0.1733,
"implied_prob": 0.3588,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.3588,
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},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3333
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4294,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.3212,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.3588,
"home": 0.3212
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3343
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
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"away": {
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"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.3597,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
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"edge": -0.1068,
"ev": -0.2648,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
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"alpha_yes": 0.1389,
"best_no_odd": 1.54,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1547,
"edge_yes": 0.1547,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2993,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1155,
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"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.021,
"implied_no": 0.6097,
"implied_yes": 0.3903,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.6072,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.3928,
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"p_final": 0.414
}
},
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"p_final_no": 0.5781,
"p_final_yes": 0.414,
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"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"alpha_under": 0.1844,
"best_over_odd": 3.06,
"best_under_odd": 1.37,
"consensus_over_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1706,
"edge_under": -0.1706,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4749,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0215,
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"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1069,
"implied_over": 0.3114,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3119,
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"market_first": {
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"over": {
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"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0215,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
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},
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}
},
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}
},
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"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
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"confidence": 6.5,
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
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],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
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"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
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"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4749,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4749,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Defensores de Belgrano VR at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Defensores de Belgrano VR as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Defensores de Belgrano VR",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +47.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +47.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +47.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+47.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
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"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
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],
"subline": "The market has repriced Defensores de Belgrano VR, but the model still strongly favours Defensores de Belgrano VR.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
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"tier": "observe",
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"value_context": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3212,
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"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.0255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
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"implied_prob": 0.3212,
"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Defensores de Belgrano VR"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.365,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.6072,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5781
},
"p_final": 0.414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.021,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1389,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.021,
"implied_prob": 0.3928,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.414
}
},
"edge": 0.1547,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3903,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0838,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.3119,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0838,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0215,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3262
},
"p_final": 0.3262,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0215,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1844,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.6881,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6567
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1706,
"ev": 0.4749,
"implied_prob": 0.3114,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641280,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4749,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4749,
"implied_prob": 0.3114,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4749,
"implied_prob": 0.3114,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Alvarado",
"home": "Defensores de Belgrano VR"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3903,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0739,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.77,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36101083032490977,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0255,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641280,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:30:32.736738+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Defensores de Belgrano VR & Alvarado!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Torneo Federal A — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahía Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martín Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 25 |
| 2 | San Martín Formosa | 16 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 3 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 27 |
| 4 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvarado | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 27 |
| 9 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 25 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 | Cipolletti | 16 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 25 |
| 12 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 27 |
| 14 | Fundación Amigos | 16 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 21 |
| 15 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 25 |
| 16 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 23 |
| 17 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 26 |
| 18 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 19 | Independiente de Chivilcoy | 18 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 23 |
| 21 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 22 | El Linqueño | 18 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 23 | Olimpo Bahía Blanca | 16 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 24 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 26 |
| 25 | Deportivo Rincón | 16 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 26 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 27 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 28 | Atenas | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 29 | Costa Brava | 16 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 30 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 31 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 32 | Huracán Las Heras | 16 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 33 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 34 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 16 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 35 | Santamarina | 16 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 36 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
