The model missed the final outcome (Liverpool Montevideo win 1–2).
The model had projected Central Español at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Central Español Liverpool Montevideo ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Español | 35.6% | 21.7% | +14.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 34.7% | 50.7% | -16.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Liverpool Montevideo's win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Liverpool Montevideo win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Liverpool Montevideo than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Central Español; match finished Liverpool Montevideo
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Central Español by 16.0 percentage points (51.6% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Central Español 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Liverpool Montevideo 34.7%
- xG · Central Español 1.31 — Liverpool Montevideo 1.29
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Central Español 4.40 · Draw 3.45 · Liverpool Montevideo 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Central Español 21.7% · Draw 27.6% · Liverpool Montevideo 50.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Central Español 4.40 · Draw 3.45 · Liverpool Montevideo 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Central Español 21.7% · Draw 27.6% · Liverpool Montevideo 50.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Liverpool Montevideo win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
7/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.88
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Liverpool Montevideo win · Central Español 1–2 Liverpool Montevideo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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}
},
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol or Liverpool Montevideo",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Liverpool Montevideo",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 56.6,
"implied_prob": 22.7,
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"label": "Home",
"market": "Central Espa\u00f1ol Win",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 13:59:15",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
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]
},
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{
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},
"p_final": 0.4902,
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"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"alpha": 0.2086,
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"edge": 0.0101,
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},
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},
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"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0845,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10076.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0502,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"sort_key": 10045.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"alert_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.0,
"hero_label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 21.7,
"market_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5661,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Central Espa\u00f1ol at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Central Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Central Espa\u00f1ol \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641139 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22727272727272727,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.0,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"steam_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5661,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Central Espa\u00f1ol at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Central Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Central Espa\u00f1ol \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641139 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22727272727272727,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Central Espa\u00f1ol 1.31 xG vs Liverpool Montevideo 1.29 \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol 35.6%",
"Market: Liverpool Montevideo ~21.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2193 -11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Central Espa\u00f1ol, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.98,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob": 21.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.02,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.0,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"market_prob": 50.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.7,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.7,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 50.7,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Liverpool Montevideo\u0027s win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Central Espa\u00f1ol 1.31 xG vs Liverpool Montevideo 1.29 \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol 35.6%",
"Market: Liverpool Montevideo ~21.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2193 -11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Central Espa\u00f1ol, but market pricing diverges by 16 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.0,
"hero_label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Central Espa\u00f1ol odds shortened \u2193 -11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Central Espa\u00f1ol, with odds shortening by 11.1%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Liverpool Montevideo than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Liverpool Montevideo than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Central Espa\u00f1ol, with odds shortening by 11.1%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Liverpool Montevideo more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Central Espa\u00f1ol has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 11.1%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Liverpool Montevideo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.98,
"edge_pp": 13.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob_pct": 21.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.02,
"edge_pp": 2.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.0,
"edge_pp": -16.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 50.7,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Liverpool Montevideo (21.7%).",
"Central Espa\u00f1ol has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -11.1%, 1/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol, Market \u2192 Liverpool Montevideo, Recent sharp money \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 77h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Central Espa\u00f1ol (11.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.25",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 77h 48m",
"pick_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.4,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,3.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "liverpool-montevideo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"away_team_id": 2358,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2358.webp",
"away_team_name": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"away_team_public_id": "0SXsI5YG4EGWuH",
"away_team_slug": "liverpool-montevideo",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1641139,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"home_team_id": 2368,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2368.webp",
"home_team_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"home_team_public_id": "47ySXajZhGCkYz",
"home_team_slug": "central-espanol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "central-espanol",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura - Apertura",
"league_id": 268,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/268.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura - Apertura",
"league_name_canonical": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura",
"league_public_id": "4kidSJ5ECYirOZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4UX6XeSQjR0yLc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": "Parque Palermo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4562,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0729,
"ev": -0.1838,
"implied_prob": 0.507,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.507,
"draw": 0.2763,
"home": 0.2166
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4342
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2908,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.2763,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.507,
"draw": 0.2763,
"home": 0.2166
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2823
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1582,
"best_odd": 4.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.507,
"draw": 0.2763,
"home": 0.2166
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.2387
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.1846,
"ev": -0.3471,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": 0.0239,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.4,
"edge": 0.1287,
"ev": 0.5661,
"implied_prob": 0.2273,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.222,
"alpha_yes": 0.2018,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.067,
"edge_yes": 0.067,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1027,
"ev_yes": 0.0628,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0489,
"implied_no": 0.522,
"implied_yes": 0.478,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5084
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4902
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5084,
"p_final_yes": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2086,
"alpha_under": 0.2295,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.63,
"edge_over": 0.0511,
"edge_under": -0.0511,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0551,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0948,
"implied_over": 0.4309,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4335,
"implied_under": 0.5691,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5665,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.4335,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4436
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2295,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.5665,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5554
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4436,
"p_final_under": 0.5554,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5661,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5661,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Central Espa\u00f1ol at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Central Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Central Espa\u00f1ol \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.87 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641139 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.87 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Central Espa\u00f1ol), but pricing still diverges by 16.0 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22727272727272727,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": 0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.4764,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.765,
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5084
},
"p_final": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0489,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2018,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.4764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4902
}
},
"edge": 0.067,
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.478,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0101,
"market_prob": 0.4335,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2086,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.4335,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4436
},
"p_final": 0.4436,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0551,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2295,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.5665,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5554
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0511,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641139,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"home": "Central Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034226,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.478,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0502,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22727272727272727,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.566,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+56.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641139,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T13:59:18.263631+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Central Español & Liverpool Montevideo!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera División - Apertura — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 55 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Central Español | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 12 | Cerro | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 16 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 53 |
| 2 | Peñarol | 29 | 48 | 24 | +24 | 58 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 55 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 30 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 29 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 53 |
| 8 | Wanderers | 29 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 44 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 | Central Español | 30 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Boston River | 30 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 |
| 14 | Progreso | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 |
| 16 | Cerro | 30 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 33 |
