The model missed the final outcome (Tacuary win 2–1).
The model had projected Benjamín Aceval at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Benjamín Aceval Tacuary ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacuary | 34.7% | 29.3% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Benjamín Aceval | 35.6% | 45.1% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Benjamín Aceval's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Tacuary win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Benjamín Aceval. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Benjamín Aceval by 9.5 percentage points (45.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tacuary 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Benjamín Aceval 35.6%
- xG · Tacuary 1.29 — Benjamín Aceval 1.31
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tacuary 3.07 · Draw 3.51 · Benjamín Aceval 1.99
- Implied 1X2 · Tacuary 29.3% · Draw 25.6% · Benjamín Aceval 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tacuary 3.07 · Draw 3.51 · Benjamín Aceval 1.99
- Implied 1X2 · Tacuary 29.3% · Draw 25.6% · Benjamín Aceval 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tacuary win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.99
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tacuary win · Tacuary 2–1 Benjamín Aceval
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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"ev_available": true,
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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},
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1993,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0554,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.5,
"text": "-5.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"sort_key": 1786.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"alert_team": "Tacuary",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.5,
"hero_label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"market_prob_pct": 45.1,
"market_team": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Benjam\u00edn Aceval at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Benjam\u00edn Aceval as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1993,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.5,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"steam_team": "Tacuary",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Benjam\u00edn Aceval at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Benjam\u00edn Aceval as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1993,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tacuary 1.29 xG vs Benjam\u00edn Aceval 1.31 \u2192 Benjam\u00edn Aceval 35.6%",
"Market: Benjam\u00edn Aceval ~45.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Tacuary \u2193 -14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval, but sharp money moved toward Tacuary.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Tacuary",
"market_prob": 29.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.5,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"market_prob": 45.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.59,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.59,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"market_prob_pct": 45.14,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tacuary"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Benjam\u00edn Aceval\u0027s win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 45.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tacuary 1.29 xG vs Benjam\u00edn Aceval 1.31 \u2192 Benjam\u00edn Aceval 35.6%",
"Market: Benjam\u00edn Aceval ~45.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Tacuary \u2193 -14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval, but sharp money moved toward Tacuary.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.5,
"hero_label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Tacuary odds shortened \u2193 -14.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Tacuary, with odds shortening by 14.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Benjam\u00edn Aceval. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Tacuary \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Benjam\u00edn Aceval. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Tacuary, with odds shortening by 14.7%.",
"Buying interest on Tacuary \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Benjam\u00edn Aceval above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Tacuary has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Tacuary."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Benjam\u00edn Aceval higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.44,
"edge_pp": 5.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tacuary",
"market_prob_pct": 29.26,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.06,
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.5,
"edge_pp": -9.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"market_prob_pct": 45.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Tacuary \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Benjam\u00edn Aceval (45.1%).",
"However, Tacuary has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -14.7%, 6/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Benjam\u00edn Aceval, Market \u2192 Benjam\u00edn Aceval, Recent sharp money \u2192 Tacuary.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.25,
"closing_odds": 1.99,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.25,
"entry_odds": 1.99,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Tacuary (14.7%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.15",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 39m",
"pick_team": "Tacuary",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.07,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.9 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Tacuary \u2193 -14.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Tacuary",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Tacuary \u2193 -14.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved toward Tacuary while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Tacuary",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Tacuary",
"steam_score": 71,
"steam_team_name": "Tacuary",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "benjamin-aceval",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"away_team_id": 17183,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17183.webp",
"away_team_name": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"away_team_public_id": "36JUtqHMHY7Y3j",
"away_team_slug": "benjamin-aceval",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1640773,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Tacuary",
"home_team_id": 10491,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10491.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tacuary",
"home_team_public_id": "36EHI4qHvPietA",
"home_team_slug": "tacuary",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tacuary",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_id": 251,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/251.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Intermedia Paraguay",
"league_public_id": "0sWYiIa69VAN3C",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5yAzULkBFVGAXC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.514,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1993,
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4514,
"draw": 0.2559,
"home": 0.2926
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4023
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2816,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.2559,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4514,
"draw": 0.2559,
"home": 0.2926
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2674
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2754,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.2926,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4514,
"draw": 0.2559,
"home": 0.2926
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3077
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.1466,
"ev": -0.2917,
"implied_prob": 0.5025,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": 0.0417,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": 0.0662,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1668,
"alpha_yes": 0.2294,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0484,
"edge_yes": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0762,
"ev_yes": -0.1552,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1114,
"implied_no": 0.4066,
"implied_yes": 0.5934,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.4061,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.5939,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5827
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4143,
"p_final_yes": 0.5827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2154,
"alpha_under": 0.1959,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.0859,
"edge_under": 0.0859,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1149,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0491,
"implied_over": 0.5679,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5684,
"implied_under": 0.4321,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4316,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4486
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5498,
"p_final_under": 0.4486,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Benjam\u00edn Aceval at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Benjam\u00edn Aceval as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Tacuary, but the model still strongly favours Benjam\u00edn Aceval.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1993,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0491,
"ev": -0.1993,
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.4061,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1668,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.4061,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"p_final": 0.4143,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0762,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.525,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.5939,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5827
}
},
"edge": 0.0484,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4066,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.4316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.5684,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5498
},
"p_final": 0.4486,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0491,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1959,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0491,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4486
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0859,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1640773,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Benjam\u00edn Aceval",
"home": "Tacuary"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4321,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1993,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5025125628140703,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2918,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640773,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:05:33.032172+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
División Intermedia Paraguay — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Santaní | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 51 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 3 | 12 de Junio VH | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 49 |
| 4 | Benjamín Aceval | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Sol de América | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Independiente FBC | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Paraguari AC | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 9 | Resistencia | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 10 | Fernando De La Mora | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| 11 | Atlético Tembetary | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 12 | Deportivo Capiatá | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 28 |
| 13 | 3 de Noviembre | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26 |
| 14 | Guairena FC | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 |
| 15 | Tacuary | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 24 |
| 16 | Encarnación | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | General Caballero | 26 | 52 | 33 | +19 | 50 |
| 2 | Deportivo Santaní | 26 | 45 | 25 | +20 | 51 |
| 3 | Benjamín Aceval | 26 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 42 |
| 4 | Independiente FBC | 26 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 37 |
| 5 | 12 de Junio VH | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 49 |
| 6 | Paraguari AC | 25 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Atlético Tembetary | 25 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 30 |
| 8 | 3 de Noviembre | 26 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 26 |
| 9 | Sol de América | 26 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 40 |
| 10 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 26 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Deportivo Capiatá | 26 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Resistencia | 26 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 32 |
| 13 | Fernando De La Mora | 25 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | Tacuary | 26 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 24 |
| 15 | Encarnación | 26 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Guairena FC | 25 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 25 |
