The model missed the final outcome (Colombia B-20 W win 0–1).
The model had projected Nigeria U20 W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Nigeria U20 W Colombia B-20 W ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria U20 W | 36.1% | 42.1% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.6% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Colombia B-20 W | 34.2% | 27.3% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Colombia B-20 W's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.3%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Colombia B-20 W win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombia B-20 W.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Nigeria U20 W by 6.9 percentage points (29.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nigeria U20 W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Colombia B-20 W 34.2%
- xG · Nigeria U20 W 1.32 — Colombia B-20 W 1.28
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nigeria U20 W 2.23 · Draw 3.07 · Colombia B-20 W 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Nigeria U20 W 42.1% · Draw 30.6% · Colombia B-20 W 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nigeria U20 W 2.23 · Draw 3.07 · Colombia B-20 W 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Nigeria U20 W 42.1% · Draw 30.6% · Colombia B-20 W 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colombia B-20 W win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
65/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colombia B-20 W win · Nigeria U20 W 0–1 Colombia B-20 W
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Nigeria U20 W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"overround": 6.5,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 4,
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"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
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"scores": [
{
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},
{
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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},
{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Nigeria U20 W or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Nigeria U20 W or Colombia B-20 W",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Nigeria U20 W or Colombia B-20 W",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Nigeria U20 W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 17.6,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Colombia B-20 W Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.3,
"draw": 30.59,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 13:08:44",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:40:40",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Nigeria U20 W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.59,
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.2,
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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}
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
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"lean_card": {
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"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 5.8,
"market_prob": 0.1724,
"market_prob_pct": 17.2,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0113,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4119,
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1611,
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"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0393,
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"p_final": 0.4232
},
"p_final": 0.4232,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0941,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0393,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
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"edge": -0.0155,
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"implied_prob": 0.5881,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.7,
"text": "+14.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1472,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
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"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
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"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
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"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.0954,
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
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"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.545,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0573,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0573,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10051.57,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1159,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.6,
"text": "-11.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0033,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Nigeria U20 W",
"sort_key": 5202.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.94,
"hero_label": "Colombia B-20 W",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"market_team": "Nigeria U20 W",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Nigeria U20 W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1778,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nigeria U20 W at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nigeria U20 W as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nigeria U20 W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Nigeria U20 W \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640548 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.94,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Nigeria U20 W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1778,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nigeria U20 W at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nigeria U20 W as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nigeria U20 W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Nigeria U20 W \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640548 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nigeria U20 W 1.32 xG vs Colombia B-20 W 1.28 \u2192 Nigeria U20 W 36.1%",
"Market: Nigeria U20 W ~42.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Nigeria U20 W +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Nigeria U20 W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.0,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Nigeria U20 W",
"market_prob": 42.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.94,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.94,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Colombia B-20 W",
"market_prob": 27.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 48.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.76,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 51.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Colombia B-20 W",
"market_prob_pct": 27.3,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Nigeria U20 W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Colombia B-20 W\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.3%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nigeria U20 W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Nigeria U20 W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Nigeria U20 W 1.32 xG vs Colombia B-20 W 1.28 \u2192 Nigeria U20 W 36.1%",
"Market: Nigeria U20 W ~42.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Nigeria U20 W +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Nigeria U20 W with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.94,
"hero_label": "Colombia B-20 W",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Nigeria U20 W has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombia B-20 W.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nigeria U20 W.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombia B-20 W.",
"However, Nigeria U20 W has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Nigeria U20 W."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Colombia B-20 W.",
"At the same time, Nigeria U20 W has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Nigeria U20 W."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Colombia B-20 W",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.9,
"lead": "The model rates Colombia B-20 W considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.0,
"edge_pp": -6.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nigeria U20 W",
"market_prob_pct": 42.11,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.94,
"edge_pp": -0.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.94,
"edge_pp": 6.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Colombia B-20 W",
"market_prob_pct": 27.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nigeria U20 W.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nigeria U20 W (42.1%).",
"Nigeria U20 W \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.07,
"closing_odds": 3.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.07,
"entry_odds": 3.44,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.23,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.23,
"pick_team": "Nigeria U20 W",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Nigeria U20 W",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colombia-u20-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Colombia B-20 W",
"away_team_id": 19081,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19081.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colombia B-20 W",
"away_team_public_id": "2ohvkcclvtS6kx",
"away_team_slug": "colombia-u20-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1640548,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Nigeria",
"home_team_display_name": "Nigeria U20 W",
"home_team_id": 19090,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19090.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nigeria U20 W",
"home_team_public_id": "1vmWWF35M7JMiM",
"home_team_slug": "nigeria-u20-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "nigeria-u20-w",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Piala Dunia B-20 Wanita",
"league_id": 920,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/920.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Dunia B-20 Wanita",
"league_public_id": "5OVEaU0FvNMsQH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 13:00:00",
"public_id": "5uzfOlOipjcELN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Lodz",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2688,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": 0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.273,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.273,
"draw": 0.3059,
"home": 0.4211
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2916
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.0693,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.273,
"draw": 0.3059,
"home": 0.4211
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3032
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4094,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.273,
"draw": 0.3059,
"home": 0.4211
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3965
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0517,
"ev": 0.1778,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": -0.0291,
"ev": -0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.0875,
"ev": -0.1951,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2048,
"alpha_yes": 0.2048,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.94,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0576,
"edge_yes": 0.0576,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0954,
"ev_yes": 0.0573,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0499,
"implied_no": 0.5126,
"implied_yes": 0.4874,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5026
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4974
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5026,
"p_final_yes": 0.4974,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1611,
"alpha_under": 0.2215,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.59,
"edge_over": 0.0711,
"edge_under": -0.0711,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0393,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0896,
"implied_over": 0.4109,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4119,
"implied_under": 0.5891,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5881,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1611,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.4119,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4232
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0896,
"implied_prob": 0.5881,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5726
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4232,
"p_final_under": 0.5726,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1778,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1778,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nigeria U20 W at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nigeria U20 W as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nigeria U20 W",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Nigeria U20 W \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +18% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640548 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nigeria U20 W).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Outlier price +18% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Nigeria U20 W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"market_prob": 0.4852,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.0954,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5026
},
"p_final": 0.4974,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0499,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4974
}
},
"edge": 0.0576,
"ev": 0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.4874,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1611,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.4119,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1611,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0393,
"implied_prob": 0.4119,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4232
},
"p_final": 0.4232,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0393,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2215,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.0896,
"implied_prob": 0.5881,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5726
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0711,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640548,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.4874,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0573,
"implied_prob": 0.4874,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colombia B-20 W",
"home": "Nigeria U20 W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049665,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4109,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4484304932735426,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640548,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T13:08:46.764862+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Piala Dunia B-20 Wanita — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina Bawah 20 Wanita | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin Bawah 20 Wanita | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina Bawah 20 Wanita | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin Bawah 20 Wanita | 3 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 1 |
