AI correctly predicted the Botafogo-SP U20 win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Botafogo-SP U20 Botafogo-SP U20 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo-SP U20 | 44.3% | 56.2% | -11.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 24.6% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Osasco Audax U20 | 26.6% | 19.2% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Botafogo-SP U20's win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Botafogo-SP U20 win 4–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Botafogo-SP U20 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Botafogo-SP U20 higher (56.2% vs model 44.3%, 11.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Botafogo-SP U20 win 4–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Botafogo-SP U20 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Osasco Audax U20 26.7%
- xG · Botafogo-SP U20 1.49 — Osasco Audax U20 1.11
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Botafogo-SP U20 1.60 · Draw 3.66 · Osasco Audax U20 4.69
- Implied 1X2 · Botafogo-SP U20 56.2% · Draw 24.6% · Osasco Audax U20 19.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Botafogo-SP U20 1.60 · Draw 3.66 · Osasco Audax U20 4.69
- Implied 1X2 · Botafogo-SP U20 56.2% · Draw 24.6% · Osasco Audax U20 19.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Botafogo-SP U20 win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
40/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Botafogo-SP U20 win · Botafogo-SP U20 4–1 Osasco Audax U20
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1944,
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"ev_display": {
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"text": "-19.4%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"sort_key": 1790.55,
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"divergence_pp": 11.9,
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"market_prob_pct": 56.2,
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"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"model_team": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2519,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botafogo-SP U20 at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botafogo-SP U20 as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Botafogo-SP U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640198 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5623,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2914,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.89,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.11,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.49,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.49,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.49 \u00b7 Away xG 1.11 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2519,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botafogo-SP U20 at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botafogo-SP U20 as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Botafogo-SP U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640198 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5623,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2914,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo-SP U20 1.49 xG vs Osasco Audax U20 1.11 \u2192 Botafogo-SP U20 44.3%",
"Market: Botafogo-SP U20 ~56.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Botafogo-SP U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Botafogo-SP U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.89,
"fair_prob": 44.34,
"label": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"market_prob": 56.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob": 29.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.46,
"fair_prob": 26.64,
"label": "Osasco Audax U20",
"market_prob": 19.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.67,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.44,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"market_prob_pct": 56.23,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Botafogo-SP U20"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Botafogo-SP U20\u0027s win probability at 56.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 56.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.9,
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Botafogo-SP U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Botafogo-SP U20 1.49 xG vs Osasco Audax U20 1.11 \u2192 Botafogo-SP U20 44.3%",
"Market: Botafogo-SP U20 ~56.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Botafogo-SP U20 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Botafogo-SP U20 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.89,
"hero_label": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Botafogo-SP U20 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Botafogo-SP U20 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Botafogo-SP U20 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Botafogo-SP U20 (pricing gap 11.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Botafogo-SP U20 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.89,
"edge_pp": -11.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"market_prob_pct": 56.23,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.44,
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.58,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.46,
"edge_pp": 7.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Osasco Audax U20",
"market_prob_pct": 19.18,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Botafogo-SP U20 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Botafogo-SP U20 (56.2%).",
"Botafogo-SP U20 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"closing_odds": 1.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.5,
"entry_odds": 1.6,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "osasco-audax-u20",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Osasco Audax U20",
"away_team_id": 13037,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/13037.webp",
"away_team_name": "Osasco Audax U20",
"away_team_public_id": "0t5zRqF6PmSZHo",
"away_team_slug": "osasco-audax-u20",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1640198,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"home_team_id": 12987,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12987.webp",
"home_team_name": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"home_team_public_id": "5jFSCbZh8ca3ZV",
"home_team_slug": "botafogo-sp-u20",
"ht.home_team_slug": "botafogo-sp-u20",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Paulista - U20",
"league_id": 1086,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1086.webp",
"league_name": "Paulista - U20",
"league_public_id": "1Z9EyPySP5tPsw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:00:00",
"public_id": "11MkAbI8peyOdc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1775,
"best_odd": 4.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.0378,
"implied_prob": 0.1918,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1918,
"draw": 0.2458,
"home": 0.5623
},
"model_prob": 0.2669,
"p_final": 0.2052
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2801,
"best_odd": 3.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0548,
"implied_prob": 0.2458,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1918,
"draw": 0.2458,
"home": 0.5623
},
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2582
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4925,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0588,
"ev": -0.1944,
"implied_prob": 0.5623,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1918,
"draw": 0.2458,
"home": 0.5623
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"p_final": 0.5035
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.69,
"edge": 0.0537,
"ev": 0.2519,
"implied_prob": 0.2132,
"model_prob": 0.2669
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.66,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.1821,
"ev": -0.2913,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.4429
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2143,
"alpha_yes": 0.2357,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0344,
"edge_yes": -0.0344,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.023,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0672,
"ev_yes": -0.1333,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0939,
"implied_no": 0.4306,
"implied_yes": 0.5694,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.44
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5593
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.44,
"p_final_yes": 0.5593,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2297,
"alpha_under": 0.2088,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0467,
"edge_under": 0.0467,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1023,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"implied_over": 0.5287,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5299,
"implied_under": 0.4713,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4701,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5189
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4801
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5189,
"p_final_under": 0.4801,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2519,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2519,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botafogo-SP U20 at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botafogo-SP U20 as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botafogo-SP U20",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Botafogo-SP U20 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1640198 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Botafogo-SP U20).",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5623,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2914,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2901,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4429,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.38
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4713,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0588,
"ev": -0.1944,
"implied_prob": 0.5623,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Botafogo-SP U20"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0068,
"market_prob": 0.4332,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.4332,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.44
},
"p_final": 0.44,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0672,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2357,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0075,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5668,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5593
}
},
"edge": 0.0344,
"ev": 0.023,
"implied_prob": 0.4306,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.01,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2297,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1023,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5189
},
"p_final": 0.4801,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2088,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4801
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0467,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4713,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1640198,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2669,
"draw": 0.2901,
"home": 0.4429
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Osasco Audax U20",
"home": "Botafogo-SP U20"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1944,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5623,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2914,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640198,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T18:03:10.693987+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Paulista - U20 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Santos U20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ferroviária U20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Portuguesa Santista U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa U20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Corinthians U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | União Suzano U20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ponte Preta U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Jabaquara U20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | São Bento U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Mirassol U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Itapirense U20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | América-SP U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Sertãozinho U20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
