The model missed the final outcome (Racing United win 0–1).
The model had projected Mount Pleasant Academy at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Mount Pleasant Academy Racing United ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Pleasant Academy | 41.9% | 56.6% | -14.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.2% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Racing United | 28.8% | 17.2% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Mount Pleasant Academy's win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Racing United win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Mount Pleasant Academy than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mount Pleasant Academy by 14.7 percentage points (56.6% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mount Pleasant Academy 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Racing United 28.8%
- xG · Mount Pleasant Academy 1.44 — Racing United 1.16
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mount Pleasant Academy 1.60 · Draw 3.45 · Racing United 5.27
- Implied 1X2 · Mount Pleasant Academy 56.6% · Draw 26.2% · Racing United 17.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mount Pleasant Academy 1.60 · Draw 3.45 · Racing United 5.27
- Implied 1X2 · Mount Pleasant Academy 56.6% · Draw 26.2% · Racing United 17.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Racing United win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
26/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Racing United win · Mount Pleasant Academy 0–1 Racing United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"pick": "Yes",
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"away": 1,
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],
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},
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"options": [
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"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Racing United",
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}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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},
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 20:29:17",
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
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]
},
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-14.0%"
},
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},
"featured": true,
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{
"decision": "small_edge",
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},
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},
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},
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"text": "+1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0122,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5209.76,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0066,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"sort_key": 5205.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.7,
"hero_label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"market_prob_pct": 56.6,
"market_team": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.519,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mount Pleasant Academy at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mount Pleasant Academy as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Mount Pleasant Academy \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639889 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.7,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.7,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.16,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 1.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.519,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mount Pleasant Academy at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mount Pleasant Academy as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Mount Pleasant Academy \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639889 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mount Pleasant Academy 1.44 xG vs Racing United 1.16 \u2192 Mount Pleasant Academy 41.9%",
"Market: Mount Pleasant Academy ~56.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Mount Pleasant Academy +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mount Pleasant Academy with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.7,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"market_prob": 56.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.07,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.63,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "Racing United",
"market_prob": 17.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.09,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.09,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"market_prob_pct": 56.58,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mount Pleasant Academy"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Mount Pleasant Academy\u0027s win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.7,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 56.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.7,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Mount Pleasant Academy \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mount Pleasant Academy 1.44 xG vs Racing United 1.16 \u2192 Mount Pleasant Academy 41.9%",
"Market: Mount Pleasant Academy ~56.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Mount Pleasant Academy +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mount Pleasant Academy with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.7,
"hero_label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mount Pleasant Academy than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mount Pleasant Academy.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Mount Pleasant Academy than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mount Pleasant Academy."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Mount Pleasant Academy more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Mount Pleasant Academy (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Mount Pleasant Academy."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.7,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Mount Pleasant Academy higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.7,
"edge_pp": -14.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"market_prob_pct": 56.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.07,
"edge_pp": 3.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.63,
"edge_pp": 11.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Racing United",
"market_prob_pct": 17.18,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Mount Pleasant Academy.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mount Pleasant Academy (56.6%).",
"Mount Pleasant Academy \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"closing_odds": 1.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.5,
"entry_odds": 1.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 1.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.6,
"pick_team": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "racing-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Racing United",
"away_team_id": 25020,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25020.webp",
"away_team_name": "Racing United",
"away_team_public_id": "5ldqzQQqBa29Ha",
"away_team_slug": "racing-united",
"country_code": "JM",
"country_display_name": "Jamaica",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jm.svg",
"country_id": 81,
"country_name": "Jamaica",
"fixture_id": 1639889,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Jamaica",
"home_team_display_name": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"home_team_id": 3442,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3442.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"home_team_public_id": "3ERwdaJRrUk033",
"home_team_slug": "mount-pleasant-academy",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mount-pleasant-academy",
"league_country": "Jamaica",
"league_country_display": "Jamaica",
"league_display_name": "Jamaica Premier League",
"league_id": 322,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/322.webp",
"league_name": "Jamaica Premier League",
"league_public_id": "36jjXZKC7i0yNG",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 20:30:00",
"public_id": "3II8HjLR2ZgKch",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Runaway Bay",
"venue_name": "Draxhall Sports Complex"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1651,
"best_odd": 5.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.1718,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1718,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5658
},
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.191
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2861,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.2624,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1718,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5658
},
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2712
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4674,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0689,
"ev": -0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1718,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5658
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.4969
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.27,
"edge": 0.0985,
"ev": 0.519,
"implied_prob": 0.1898,
"model_prob": 0.2882
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": 0.0119,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2933
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.2065,
"ev": -0.3304,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.4185
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2234,
"alpha_yes": 0.2031,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0609,
"edge_yes": 0.0609,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1398,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1222,
"ev_yes": 0.08,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0722,
"implied_no": 0.5209,
"implied_yes": 0.4791,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5104
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4883
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5104,
"p_final_yes": 0.4883,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2189,
"alpha_under": 0.2408,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.975,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.71,
"edge_over": 0.0188,
"edge_under": -0.0188,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0122,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0757,
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0909,
"implied_over": 0.4632,
"implied_over_mf": 0.464,
"implied_under": 0.5368,
"implied_under_mf": 0.536,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.464,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.468
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2408,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.536,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5316
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.468,
"p_final_under": 0.5316,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.519,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.08,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.08,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.519,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mount Pleasant Academy at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 56.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mount Pleasant Academy as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mount Pleasant Academy",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Mount Pleasant Academy \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.81 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639889 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.81 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mount Pleasant Academy).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0689,
"ev": -0.2049,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mount Pleasant Academy"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0132,
"market_prob": 0.4751,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.5104
},
"p_final": 0.4883,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0722,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2031,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.4751,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.4883
}
},
"edge": 0.0609,
"ev": 0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.4791,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0039,
"market_prob": 0.464,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.464,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.468
},
"p_final": 0.468,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0757,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2408,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.536,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5316
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": 0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4632,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639889,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.08,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Racing United",
"home": "Mount Pleasant Academy"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.0432,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.4791,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.6,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3304,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639889,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T20:29:19.404607+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Mount Pleasant Academy & Racing United!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Jamaica Premier League — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Montego Bay United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Cavalier | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Racing United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Chapelton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Molynes United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Treasure Beach | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterhouse | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tru-Juice | 3 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | Cavalier | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Portmore United | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 7 | Racing United | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Montego Bay United | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Chapelton | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Treasure Beach | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 12 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 |
