The model missed the final outcome (Manta FC win 2–1).
The model had projected Orense SC at 36.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Orense SC Manta FC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 31.2% | 36.4% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.6% | 30.3% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Orense SC | 36.2% | 33.3% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Manta FC's win probability at 36.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.2%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Manta FC win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Manta FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Orense SC by 5.2 percentage points (41.4% vs model 36.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Manta FC 31.2% · Draw 32.6% · Orense SC 36.2%
- xG · Manta FC 1.05 — Orense SC 1.15
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Manta FC 2.58 · Draw 3.10 · Orense SC 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Manta FC 36.4% · Draw 30.3% · Orense SC 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Manta FC 2.58 · Draw 3.10 · Orense SC 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Manta FC 36.4% · Draw 30.3% · Orense SC 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Manta FC win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
25/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.58
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Manta FC win · Manta FC 2–1 Orense SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "582cac22f7e084003b485dc603328e376d9a299ae362aa31bb5b5e5461338613",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"away_win_prob": 0.3623,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.538,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.462,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3256,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.76,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.07,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.2,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.05,
"home_win_prob": 0.312,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.377,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.623
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Orense SC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Orense SC"
},
"away_xg": 1.15,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Orense SC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0291,
"edge_gap": 0.0366,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.333,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.2,
"draw": 32.6,
"home": 31.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.82
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.82,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Orense SC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.0,
"market_odds": 2.82,
"model_odds": 2.76,
"overround": 6.5,
"prob_edge": 0.8,
"value_pct": 2.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 68.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 18,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 65.0,
"no_prob": 53.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 46.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.15,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Manta FC or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Manta FC or Orense SC",
"prob": 67.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Orense SC",
"prob": 68.8
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Orense SC",
"pick_prob": 68.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.2,
"draw_pct": 32.6,
"home_pct": 31.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Orense SC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.2,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.6,
"over_prob": 37.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.2,
"under_prob": 62.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 2.2,
"implied_prob": 35.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Orense SC Win",
"model_prob": 36.2,
"odds": 2.82
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Orense SC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.3,
"draw": 30.3,
"home": 36.4
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 19:01:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 18:32:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Manta FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.4,
"gap_pp": -5.17,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 31.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.3,
"gap_pp": 2.26,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 32.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.3,
"gap_pp": 2.91,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.86,
"gap_pp": -5.16,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 37.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"gap_pp": 5.16,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 62.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.1,
"early": 3.1,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.2,
"early": 2.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.86,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.14,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.5,
"ev": -0.1558,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.3,
"market_prob": 0.1587,
"market_prob_pct": 15.9,
"model_prob": 0.134,
"model_prob_pct": 13.4,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.05,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0094,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4932,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5026
},
"p_final": 0.5026,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0703,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4974
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.076,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.6,
"text": "+7.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1545,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.076,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 53.8,
"sort_key": 10218.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 46.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0134,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.5635,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4243
},
"p_final": 0.5769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0279,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0481,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.5635,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5769
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1706,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0902,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0902,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 37.7,
"sort_key": 10081.18,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 62.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0255,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0255,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Orense SC",
"sort_key": 1793.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 820.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"alert_team": "Manta FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.2,
"hero_label": "Manta FC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"market_team": "Manta FC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"model_team": "Orense SC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0902,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orense SC at 36.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orense SC as the value side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orense SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0255,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.2,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -15.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.05,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.15,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.05 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -15%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"steam_team": "Manta FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0902,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orense SC at 36.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orense SC as the value side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orense SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0255,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Manta FC 1.05 xG vs Orense SC 1.15 \u2192 Orense SC 36.2%",
"Market: Manta FC ~33.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Manta FC odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Orense SC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.2,
"fair_prob": 31.2,
"label": "Manta FC",
"market_prob": 36.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.26,
"fair_prob": 32.56,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.93,
"fair_prob": 36.23,
"label": "Orense SC",
"market_prob": 33.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.48,
"fair_prob": 37.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.48,
"fair_prob": 62.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.0,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.0,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.2,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Manta FC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Manta FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Manta FC\u0027s win probability at 36.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.2%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Orense SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Orense SC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Manta FC 1.05 xG vs Orense SC 1.15 \u2192 Orense SC 36.2%",
"Market: Manta FC ~33.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Manta FC odds \u2191 +4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Orense SC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.2,
"hero_label": "Manta FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Manta FC odds lengthened \u2191 +4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Manta FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Manta FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Manta FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Manta FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Manta FC above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Manta FC (\u2191 +4.0%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.7 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.7,
"max_prob_pct": 36.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Manta FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Manta FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.2,
"edge_pp": -5.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.2,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Manta FC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.26,
"edge_pp": 2.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.56,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.93,
"edge_pp": 2.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.23,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Orense SC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Manta FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Manta FC (33.3%).",
"Manta FC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.0%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Orense SC, Market \u2192 Manta FC, while Manta FC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.76,
"closing_odds": 2.58,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.76,
"entry_odds": 2.58,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Manta FC (4.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.60",
"2.55",
"2.50"
],
"display": "2.60 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 52m",
"pick_team": "Manta FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
2.58,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Manta FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Manta FC",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Manta FC",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Manta FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "orense-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Orense SC",
"away_team_id": 1992,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1992.webp",
"away_team_name": "Orense SC",
"away_team_public_id": "2Qef3Vq5y5eRfd",
"away_team_slug": "orense-sc",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1639819,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Manta FC",
"home_team_id": 1980,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1980.webp",
"home_team_name": "Manta FC",
"home_team_public_id": "29txTvmfdlh0wi",
"home_team_slug": "manta-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "manta-fc",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5o6Mh46noZ9yF5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4HhvmLhlh8rBJU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Manta",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jocay"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4304,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.333,
"draw": 0.303,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"p_final": 0.3456
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2898,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.333,
"draw": 0.303,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3256,
"p_final": 0.3095
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4151,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1162,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.333,
"draw": 0.303,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3123,
"p_final": 0.3426
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": 0.0212,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.3621
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": 0.0092,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3256
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": -0.0753,
"ev": -0.1942,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3123
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2099,
"alpha_yes": 0.2099,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.05,
"edge_yes": -0.05,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.076,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0703,
"ev_yes": -0.1545,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1046,
"implied_no": 0.488,
"implied_yes": 0.512,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5026
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4974
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5026,
"p_final_yes": 0.4974,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2049,
"alpha_under": 0.2254,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": -0.0648,
"edge_under": 0.0648,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1706,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"ev_under": 0.0902,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0481,
"implied_over": 0.4418,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4365,
"implied_under": 0.5582,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5635,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4243
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.5635,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5769
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4243,
"p_final_under": 0.5769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0902,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0902,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0902,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0902,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orense SC at 36.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orense SC as the value side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orense SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Orense SC).",
"Decision strength: 5.2/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0255,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.1 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.462,
"draw_prob": 0.3256,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3621,
"over_prob": 0.377,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"under_prob": 0.623,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0255,
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Orense SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.4932,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0703,
"implied_prob": 0.4932,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5026
},
"p_final": 0.5026,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0703,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2099,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5068,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4974
}
},
"edge": 0.05,
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.488,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0134,
"market_prob": 0.5635,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2049,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0122,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.4365,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4243
},
"p_final": 0.5769,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0481,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2254,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.5635,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.5769
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0648,
"ev": 0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639819,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0902,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3621,
"draw": 0.3256,
"home": 0.3123
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Orense SC",
"home": "Manta FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040888,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.488,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0255,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+2.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639819,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T19:01:15.760263+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Manta FC & Orense SC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro Ecuador — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
