The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Racing Montevideo at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Racing Montevideo Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 32.9% | 41.1% | -8.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.5% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Racing Montevideo | 37.5% | 28.4% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Racing Montevideo's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Racing Montevideo.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Racing Montevideo by 9.2 percentage points (28.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Liverpool Montevideo 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Racing Montevideo 37.6%
- xG · Liverpool Montevideo 1.25 — Racing Montevideo 1.35
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Liverpool Montevideo 2.32 · Draw 3.13 · Racing Montevideo 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Liverpool Montevideo 41.1% · Draw 30.5% · Racing Montevideo 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Liverpool Montevideo 2.32 · Draw 3.13 · Racing Montevideo 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Liverpool Montevideo 41.1% · Draw 30.5% · Racing Montevideo 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
18/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Racing Montevideo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Liverpool Montevideo or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
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"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Liverpool Montevideo"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": 0.0917,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"best_odds": 3.36,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.52,
"market_odds": 3.36,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 4.8,
"prob_edge": 7.8,
"value_pct": 26.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 12,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 13,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Liverpool Montevideo or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Liverpool Montevideo or Racing Montevideo",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Racing Montevideo",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Liverpool Montevideo or Racing Montevideo",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Racing Montevideo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 26.3,
"implied_prob": 29.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Racing Montevideo Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 3.36
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Racing Montevideo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.39,
"draw": 30.48,
"home": 41.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 22:59:49",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 22:29:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.12,
"gap_pp": -8.25,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.48,
"gap_pp": -0.92,
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"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
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"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.68,
"gap_pp": 10.52,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.13,
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{
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{
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{
"closing": 1.53,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.2125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.3,
"market_prob": 0.1587,
"market_prob_pct": 15.9,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4563,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.695,
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"implied_prob": 0.5437,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5247
},
"p_final": 0.4736,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1009,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.195,
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"edge": 0.0173,
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"implied_prob": 0.4563,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4736
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1445,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0148,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3856,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4004
},
"p_final": 0.4004,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.152,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2117,
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"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.109,
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"p_final": 0.594
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2195,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.9,
"text": "+21.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2195,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10197.55,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0338,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.4,
"text": "+3.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0338,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.4,
"text": "+3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"sort_key": 10030.42,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"alert_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.15,
"hero_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"market_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Racing Montevideo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Montevideo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Montevideo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Montevideo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Racing Montevideo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.32 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639786 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.32 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0338,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.15,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.15,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"steam_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Montevideo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Montevideo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Montevideo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Racing Montevideo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.32 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639786 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.32 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0338,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.25 xG vs Racing Montevideo 1.35 \u2192 Racing Montevideo 37.5%",
"Market: Liverpool Montevideo ~28.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Liverpool Montevideo odds \u2191 +2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Racing Montevideo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.27,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"market_prob": 41.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.87,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.48,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob": 28.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.0,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.0,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 28.39,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Liverpool Montevideo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Racing Montevideo\u0027s win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.15,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Racing Montevideo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.25 xG vs Racing Montevideo 1.35 \u2192 Racing Montevideo 37.5%",
"Market: Liverpool Montevideo ~28.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Liverpool Montevideo odds \u2191 +2.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Racing Montevideo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.15,
"hero_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Liverpool Montevideo odds lengthened \u2191 +2.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Liverpool Montevideo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Racing Montevideo.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Racing Montevideo.",
"However, Liverpool Montevideo has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Racing Montevideo.",
"At the same time, Liverpool Montevideo has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.15,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Montevideo",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.2,
"lead": "The model rates Racing Montevideo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.27,
"edge_pp": -8.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 41.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.87,
"edge_pp": -0.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.48,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.15,
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Montevideo",
"market_prob_pct": 28.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Liverpool Montevideo (28.4%).",
"Liverpool Montevideo odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.3%, 1/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Racing Montevideo, Market \u2192 Liverpool Montevideo, while Liverpool Montevideo odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.76,
"closing_odds": 3.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.76,
"entry_odds": 3.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Liverpool Montevideo (swing 2.32 \u2192 2.14 \u2192 2.20) \u2014 net 2.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.32",
"2.23",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.32 \u2192 2.14 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.32,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.7",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "racing-montevideo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Racing Montevideo",
"away_team_id": 2359,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2359.webp",
"away_team_name": "Racing Montevideo",
"away_team_public_id": "2GXJoq580JtvtO",
"away_team_slug": "racing-montevideo",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1639786,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"home_team_id": 2358,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2358.webp",
"home_team_name": "Liverpool Montevideo",
"home_team_public_id": "0SXsI5YG4EGWuH",
"home_team_slug": "liverpool-montevideo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "liverpool-montevideo",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura - Apertura",
"league_id": 268,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/268.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura - Apertura",
"league_name_canonical": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura",
"league_public_id": "4kidSJ5ECYirOZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 23:00:00",
"public_id": "4rUMQrtRhOzE6O",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Belvedere"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2587,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": 0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2839,
"draw": 0.3048,
"home": 0.4112
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3077
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0027,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.3048,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2839,
"draw": 0.3048,
"home": 0.4112
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3021
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3943,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0325,
"ev": -0.1214,
"implied_prob": 0.4112,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2839,
"draw": 0.3048,
"home": 0.4112
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3787
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.078,
"ev": 0.2622,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": -0.0239,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.1023,
"ev": -0.2374,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2146,
"alpha_yes": 0.195,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.09,
"edge_yes": 0.09,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1106,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"implied_no": 0.545,
"implied_yes": 0.455,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.5437,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5247
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4563,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4736
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5247,
"p_final_yes": 0.4736,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.154,
"alpha_under": 0.2117,
"best_over_odd": 2.53,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.0984,
"edge_under": -0.0984,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2195,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0429,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.109,
"implied_over": 0.3836,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3856,
"implied_under": 0.6164,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6144,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4004
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2117,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.594
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4004,
"p_final_under": 0.594,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2195,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2622,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Montevideo at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Montevideo as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Montevideo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Racing Montevideo \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.32 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639786 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.32 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Racing Montevideo).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0338,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": 0.0338,
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Racing Montevideo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4563,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.5437,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5247
},
"p_final": 0.4736,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4563,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4736
}
},
"edge": 0.09,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.3856,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4004
},
"p_final": 0.4004,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0429,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2117,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.594
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0984,
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639786,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2195,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Racing Montevideo",
"home": "Liverpool Montevideo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0338,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2839,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2624,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639786,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T22:59:50.768290+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División - Apertura — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 55 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Central Español | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 12 | Cerro | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 16 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 53 |
| 2 | Peñarol | 29 | 48 | 24 | +24 | 58 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 55 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 30 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 29 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 53 |
| 8 | Wanderers | 29 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 44 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 | Central Español | 30 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Boston River | 30 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 |
| 14 | Progreso | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 |
| 16 | Cerro | 30 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 33 |
