The model missed the final outcome (Armadale win 3–0).
The model had projected UWA Nedlands at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 UWA Nedlands Armadale ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armadale | 32.4% | 47.4% | -15.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.3% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| UWA Nedlands | 38.0% | 28.3% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Armadale's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Armadale win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Armadale than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned UWA Nedlands; match finished Armadale
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on UWA Nedlands by 15.0 percentage points (53.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Armadale 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · UWA Nedlands 38.0%
- xG · Armadale 1.24 — UWA Nedlands 1.36
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Armadale 1.93 · Draw 3.77 · UWA Nedlands 3.23
- Implied 1X2 · Armadale 47.4% · Draw 24.3% · UWA Nedlands 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Armadale 1.93 · Draw 3.77 · UWA Nedlands 3.23
- Implied 1X2 · Armadale 47.4% · Draw 24.3% · UWA Nedlands 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Armadale win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
8/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Armadale win · Armadale 3–0 UWA Nedlands
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "84dfe27749259f663818f8dbd696aa7893514e758a4d6b09c41d8a85e3ff39ce",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Armadale or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Armadale"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "UWA Nedlands",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0971,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.23
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.23,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "UWA Nedlands Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.53,
"market_odds": 3.23,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 7.1,
"value_pct": 22.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Armadale or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Armadale or UWA Nedlands",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or UWA Nedlands",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Armadale or UWA Nedlands",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "UWA Nedlands"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.8,
"implied_prob": 31.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "UWA Nedlands Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 3.23
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.33,
"draw": 24.27,
"home": 47.41
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 07:29:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 06:59:23",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Armadale",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.41,
"gap_pp": -15.03,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.27,
"gap_pp": 5.33,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.33,
"gap_pp": 9.71,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.81,
"gap_pp": -14.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.19,
"gap_pp": 14.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.41,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.77,
"early": 3.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.27,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.23,
"early": 3.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.33,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.81,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.19,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.615,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5886
},
"p_final": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2328,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.385,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4042
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2846,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 28.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2846,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10406.14,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1556,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0141,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1556,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3796
},
"p_final": 0.3796,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.14,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6152
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1674,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.7,
"text": "+16.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1674,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10150.66,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0047,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0047,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.5,
"text": "-0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "UWA Nedlands",
"sort_key": 2199.624,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"alert_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.02,
"hero_label": "Armadale",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"market_team": "Armadale",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UWA Nedlands at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UWA Nedlands as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UWA Nedlands",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0047,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.02,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.02,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"steam_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UWA Nedlands at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UWA Nedlands as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UWA Nedlands",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0047,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Armadale 1.24 xG vs UWA Nedlands 1.36 \u2192 UWA Nedlands 38.0%",
"Market: Armadale ~28.3% implied",
"Market Drift: UWA Nedlands odds \u2191 +15.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours UWA Nedlands, but the market has moved away from UWA Nedlands.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.02,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Armadale",
"market_prob": 47.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.68,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "UWA Nedlands",
"market_prob": 28.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.46,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.46,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.8,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.8,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Armadale",
"market_prob_pct": 47.41,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "UWA Nedlands"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Armadale\u0027s win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "UWA Nedlands",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Armadale 1.24 xG vs UWA Nedlands 1.36 \u2192 UWA Nedlands 38.0%",
"Market: Armadale ~28.3% implied",
"Market Drift: UWA Nedlands odds \u2191 +15.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours UWA Nedlands, but the market has moved away from UWA Nedlands.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.02,
"hero_label": "Armadale",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "UWA Nedlands odds lengthened \u2191 +15.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, UWA Nedlands has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Armadale than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from UWA Nedlands \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Armadale than the current fair estimate.",
"However, UWA Nedlands has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from UWA Nedlands \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Armadale more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, UWA Nedlands has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Armadale",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Armadale higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.02,
"edge_pp": -15.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Armadale",
"market_prob_pct": 47.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.32,
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.27,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.68,
"edge_pp": 9.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UWA Nedlands",
"market_prob_pct": 28.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from UWA Nedlands \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Armadale (28.3%).",
"UWA Nedlands odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.6%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 UWA Nedlands, Market \u2192 Armadale, while UWA Nedlands odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.81,
"closing_odds": 1.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.81,
"entry_odds": 1.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 22m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on UWA Nedlands (15.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.45",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 22m",
"pick_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.23,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,16.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from UWA Nedlands while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "UWA Nedlands",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "UWA Nedlands",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "UWA Nedlands",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uwa-nedlands",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "UWA Nedlands",
"away_team_id": 23533,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23533.webp",
"away_team_name": "UWA Nedlands",
"away_team_public_id": "5PtP4thu38MG69",
"away_team_slug": "uwa-nedlands",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1639484,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "Armadale",
"home_team_id": 3812,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3812.webp",
"home_team_name": "Armadale",
"home_team_public_id": "4610P17DHlAazL",
"home_team_slug": "armadale",
"ht.home_team_slug": "armadale",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "Western Australia NPL",
"league_id": 196,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/196.webp",
"league_name": "Western Australia NPL",
"league_public_id": "2v67PL2RL11nX0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 07:30:00",
"public_id": "0oJAanSBInEpMl",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Perth",
"venue_name": "Alfred Skeet Reserve"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2563,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": -0.0047,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2833,
"draw": 0.2427,
"home": 0.4741
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3081
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.276,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0297,
"implied_prob": 0.2427,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2833,
"draw": 0.2427,
"home": 0.4741
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2574
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4647,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0699,
"ev": -0.2199,
"implied_prob": 0.4741,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2833,
"draw": 0.2427,
"home": 0.4741
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": 0.0707,
"ev": 0.2285,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1944,
"ev": -0.3752,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1556,
"alpha_yes": 0.2139,
"best_no_odd": 2.56,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.088,
"edge_yes": -0.088,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1674,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1142,
"implied_no": 0.368,
"implied_yes": 0.632,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1556,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3796
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6152
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3796,
"p_final_yes": 0.6152,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1981,
"alpha_under": 0.1441,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.48,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1346,
"edge_under": 0.1346,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1229,
"ev_under": 0.2846,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0381,
"implied_over": 0.6166,
"implied_over_mf": 0.615,
"implied_under": 0.3834,
"implied_under_mf": 0.385,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.615,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5886
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.385,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5886,
"p_final_under": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2846,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates UWA Nedlands at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies UWA Nedlands as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "UWA Nedlands",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +28.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +28.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +28.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+28.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from UWA Nedlands, but the model still strongly favours UWA Nedlands.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0047,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": -0.0047,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "UWA Nedlands"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1556,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1556,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3796
},
"p_final": 0.3796,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1142,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6152
}
},
"edge": 0.088,
"ev": 0.1674,
"implied_prob": 0.368,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"market_prob": 0.385,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1981,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.615,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5886
},
"p_final": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1441,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.385,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4042
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1346,
"ev": 0.2846,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639484,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2846,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1674,
"implied_prob": 0.368,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1674,
"implied_prob": 0.368,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UWA Nedlands",
"home": "Armadale"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.103196,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2846,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0047,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.23,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30959752321981426,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2284,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639484,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T07:29:26.015400+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Armadale & UWA Nedlands!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Western Australia NPL — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 60 | 27 | +33 | 47 |
| 2 | Perth | 22 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 38 |
| 3 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 41 |
| 4 | Fremantle City | 22 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 35 |
| 5 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 |
| 7 | Armadale | 22 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Knights | 22 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 25 |
| 9 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 41 |
| 10 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 23 |
| 11 | Balcatta | 22 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 17 |
| 12 | Sorrento | 22 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 24 |
