AI correctly predicted the Filipina Bawah 23 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Filipina Bawah 23 Filipina Bawah 23 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filipina Bawah 23 | 40.9% | 21.3% | +19.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 20.2% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Kuwait B-23 | 29.7% | 58.5% | -28.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kuwait B-23's win probability at 58.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Filipina Bawah 23 win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Filipina Bawah 23 higher (69.7% vs model 40.9%, 28.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Filipina Bawah 23 win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Filipina Bawah 23 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Kuwait B-23 29.6%
- xG · Filipina Bawah 23 1.42 — Kuwait B-23 1.18
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Filipina Bawah 23 4.14 · Draw 4.38 · Kuwait B-23 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Filipina Bawah 23 21.3% · Draw 20.2% · Kuwait B-23 58.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Filipina Bawah 23 4.14 · Draw 4.38 · Kuwait B-23 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Filipina Bawah 23 21.3% · Draw 20.2% · Kuwait B-23 58.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Filipina Bawah 23 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Filipina Bawah 23 win · Filipina Bawah 23 2–1 Kuwait B-23
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"yes_prob": 54.1
},
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"alert_team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.81,
"hero_label": "Kuwait B-23",
"market_prob_pct": 21.3,
"market_team": "Kuwait B-23",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Filipina Bawah 23 at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Filipina Bawah 23 as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Filipina Bawah 23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639461 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (29 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"steam_team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Filipina Bawah 23 at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Filipina Bawah 23 as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Filipina Bawah 23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639461 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Filipina Bawah 23 1.42 xG vs Kuwait B-23 1.18 \u2192 Filipina Bawah 23 40.9%",
"Market: Kuwait B-23 ~21.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Filipina Bawah 23 odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Filipina Bawah 23, but the market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.57,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"market_prob": 21.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.23,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Kuwait B-23",
"market_prob": 58.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.85,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.85,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Kuwait B-23",
"market_prob_pct": 58.5,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Filipina Bawah 23"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kuwait B-23\u0027s win probability at 58.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Filipina Bawah 23 1.42 xG vs Kuwait B-23 1.18 \u2192 Filipina Bawah 23 40.9%",
"Market: Kuwait B-23 ~21.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Filipina Bawah 23 odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Filipina Bawah 23, but the market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.81,
"hero_label": "Kuwait B-23",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Filipina Bawah 23 odds lengthened \u2191 +21.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Kuwait B-23",
"largest_gap_pp": -28.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Kuwait B-23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 19.57,
"edge_pp": 19.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"market_prob_pct": 21.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.23,
"edge_pp": 9.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -28.81,
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kuwait B-23",
"market_prob_pct": 58.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kuwait B-23 (21.3%).",
"However, Filipina Bawah 23 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.8%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Filipina Bawah 23, Market \u2192 Kuwait B-23, while Filipina Bawah 23 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.23,
"closing_odds": 1.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.23,
"entry_odds": 1.51,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books lengthened Filipina Bawah 23 together (21.8% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.33",
"3.90"
],
"display": "5.73 \u2192 3.32 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 45m",
"pick_team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.73"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
4.14,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,12.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Filipina Bawah 23 odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Filipina Bawah 23 odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Market moved away from Filipina Bawah 23 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kuwait-u23",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kuwait B-23",
"away_team_id": 10940,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10940.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kuwait B-23",
"away_team_public_id": "5IKhoknzon1L0q",
"away_team_slug": "kuwait-u23",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639461,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Philippines",
"home_team_display_name": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"home_team_id": 10953,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10953.webp",
"home_team_name": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"home_team_public_id": "4ttrssATHRPY1l",
"home_team_slug": "philippines-u23",
"ht.home_team_slug": "philippines-u23",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Sukan Asia",
"league_id": 803,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/803.webp",
"league_name": "Sukan Asia",
"league_public_id": "48hIWMeCe5IlvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 05:00:00",
"public_id": "2lwAX6GwGReofk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nagoya",
"venue_name": "CS Asset Minato Soccer Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3404,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0982,
"ev": -0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.585,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.585,
"draw": 0.2017,
"home": 0.2134
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.4868
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1723,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.2017,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.585,
"draw": 0.2017,
"home": 0.2134
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2176
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.585,
"draw": 0.2017,
"home": 0.2134
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.2411
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.3657,
"ev": -0.5522,
"implied_prob": 0.6623,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.38,
"edge": 0.0656,
"ev": 0.2873,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.14,
"edge": 0.168,
"ev": 0.6956,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2216,
"alpha_yes": 0.2437,
"best_no_odd": 2.07,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0085,
"edge_yes": -0.0085,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0499,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0776,
"ev_yes": -0.0803,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0864,
"implied_no": 0.4505,
"implied_yes": 0.5495,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.4488,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.451
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2437,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.5512,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.451,
"p_final_yes": 0.5487,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2126,
"alpha_under": 0.1933,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.0912,
"edge_under": 0.0912,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"ev_under": 0.1241,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0449,
"implied_over": 0.5732,
"implied_over_mf": 0.576,
"implied_under": 0.4268,
"implied_under_mf": 0.424,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.556
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4422
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.556,
"p_final_under": 0.4422,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Filipina Bawah 23 at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Filipina Bawah 23 as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Filipina Bawah 23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Filipina Bawah 23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639461 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Filipina Bawah 23, but the model still strongly favours Filipina Bawah 23.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Filipina Bawah 23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0023,
"market_prob": 0.4488,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.4488,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.451
},
"p_final": 0.451,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0776,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2437,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.5512,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.556
},
"p_final": 0.4422,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0449,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4422
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0912,
"ev": 0.1241,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639461,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kuwait B-23",
"home": "Filipina Bawah 23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044999,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639461,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T04:59:12.429330+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Filipina Bawah 23 & Kuwait B-23!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Sukan Asia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jepun Bawah 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Thailand B-23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Kyrgyzstan B-23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hong Kong U23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jepun Bawah 23 | 3 | 12 | 0 | +12 | 9 |
| 2 | Thailand B-23 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Kyrgyzstan B-23 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Hong Kong U23 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
