The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Avondale at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Avondale Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakleigh Cannons | 33.8% | 44.3% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.5% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Avondale | 36.6% | 30.2% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Oakleigh Cannons's win probability at 44.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Oakleigh Cannons than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Avondale; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Avondale by 10.6 percentage points (47.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Oakleigh Cannons 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Avondale 36.6%
- xG · Oakleigh Cannons 1.27 — Avondale 1.33
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Oakleigh Cannons 2.09 · Draw 3.63 · Avondale 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Oakleigh Cannons 44.3% · Draw 25.5% · Avondale 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Oakleigh Cannons 2.09 · Draw 3.63 · Avondale 3.07
- Implied 1X2 · Oakleigh Cannons 44.3% · Draw 25.5% · Avondale 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 05:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.09
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Oakleigh Cannons 0–0 Avondale
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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}
},
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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},
"correct_score": {
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 9.9
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{
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{
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{
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"prob": 8.0
}
],
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},
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"options": [
{
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 05:29:02",
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
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]
},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-15.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0723,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "+7.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0071,
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"no": {
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
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"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0203,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0203,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1236,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Avondale",
"sort_key": 1794.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"alert_team": "Avondale",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.55,
"hero_label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"market_prob_pct": 30.2,
"market_team": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Avondale",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1236,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avondale at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avondale as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avondale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Avondale \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639332 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1236,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.55,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"steam_team": "Avondale",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1236,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avondale at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avondale as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avondale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Avondale \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639332 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1236,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oakleigh Cannons 1.27 xG vs Avondale 1.33 \u2192 Avondale 36.6%",
"Market: Oakleigh Cannons ~30.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Avondale odds \u2191 +7.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Avondale, but the market has moved away from Avondale.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.55,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"market_prob": 44.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.42,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Avondale",
"market_prob": 30.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.32,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.88,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.88,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"market_prob_pct": 44.32,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Avondale"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Oakleigh Cannons\u0027s win probability at 44.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Avondale",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Oakleigh Cannons 1.27 xG vs Avondale 1.33 \u2192 Avondale 36.6%",
"Market: Oakleigh Cannons ~30.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Avondale odds \u2191 +7.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Avondale, but the market has moved away from Avondale.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.55,
"hero_label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Avondale odds lengthened \u2191 +7.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Avondale has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Oakleigh Cannons than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Avondale \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Oakleigh Cannons than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Avondale has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Avondale \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Oakleigh Cannons more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Avondale has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Avondale."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Oakleigh Cannons higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.55,
"edge_pp": -10.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"market_prob_pct": 44.32,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.12,
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.42,
"edge_pp": 6.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Avondale",
"market_prob_pct": 30.17,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Avondale \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Oakleigh Cannons (30.2%).",
"However, Avondale has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.4%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Avondale, Market \u2192 Oakleigh Cannons, while Avondale odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.85,
"closing_odds": 2.09,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.85,
"entry_odds": 2.09,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 70h 32m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Avondale (7.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.07",
"2.88",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.00 \u2192 2.61 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 70h 32m",
"pick_team": "Avondale",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.61"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.07,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.07"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Avondale",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Avondale",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from Avondale while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Avondale",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Avondale",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Avondale",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "avondale",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Avondale",
"away_team_id": 3798,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3798.webp",
"away_team_name": "Avondale",
"away_team_public_id": "0PKhm4Phqjx16f",
"away_team_slug": "avondale",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1639332,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"home_team_id": 3808,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3808.webp",
"home_team_name": "Oakleigh Cannons",
"home_team_public_id": "2NAdiWUvQ3gwui",
"home_team_slug": "oakleigh-cannons",
"ht.home_team_slug": "oakleigh-cannons",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "Victoria NPL",
"league_id": 195,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/195.webp",
"league_name": "Victoria NPL",
"league_public_id": "1woy29t7echvq1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 05:30:00",
"public_id": "5Kd2M2wL5LmkqU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Melbourne",
"venue_name": "Jack Edwards Reserve"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2711,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3017,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.4432
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3191
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.2552,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3017,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.4432
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2668
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3787,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.04,
"ev": -0.1574,
"implied_prob": 0.4432,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3017,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.4432
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4032
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": 0.0402,
"ev": 0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.63,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0762,
"implied_prob": 0.2755,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": -0.1409,
"ev": -0.2945,
"implied_prob": 0.4785,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1686,
"alpha_yes": 0.2318,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0388,
"edge_yes": -0.0388,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.068,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0991,
"implied_no": 0.4162,
"implied_yes": 0.5838,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5775
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4198,
"p_final_yes": 0.5775,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2243,
"alpha_under": 0.2039,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.07,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": -0.0632,
"edge_under": 0.0632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1035,
"ev_under": 0.0723,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0541,
"implied_over": 0.5452,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5445,
"implied_under": 0.4548,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4555,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2243,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5305
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4683
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5305,
"p_final_under": 0.4683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1236,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0723,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0723,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1236,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Avondale at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Avondale as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Avondale",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Avondale \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.17 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639332 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.17 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Avondale, but the model still strongly favours Avondale.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1236,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Avondale"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"market_prob": 0.4127,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4198
},
"p_final": 0.4198,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.068,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5775
}
},
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4162,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0127,
"market_prob": 0.4555,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2243,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1035,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5305
},
"p_final": 0.4683,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0541,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4683
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639332,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0723,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Avondale",
"home": "Oakleigh Cannons"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.026216,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4548,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3017,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1236,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639332,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T05:29:07.133821+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Oakleigh Cannons & Avondale!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Victoria NPL — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | Preston Lions | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Avondale | 26 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 47 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 38 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
| 10 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avondale | 26 | 65 | 34 | +31 | 47 |
| 2 | Oakleigh Cannons | 26 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 54 |
| 3 | Hume City | 26 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 49 |
| 4 | Heidelberg United | 26 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 40 |
| 5 | Melbourne City II | 26 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 26 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | South Melbourne | 26 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 | St Albans Saints | 26 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 26 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 37 |
| 10 | Sunshine Georgies | 26 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 38 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 26 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 28 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 26 | 27 | 51 | -24 | 24 |
| 13 | Green Gully | 26 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 18 |
| 14 | Dandenong Thunder | 26 | 23 | 65 | -42 | 15 |
