The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Cliftonville U19 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Cliftonville U19 Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliftonville U19 | 36.1% | 47.1% | -11.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.9% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Super Nova U19 | 34.2% | 31.0% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Cliftonville U19's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Cliftonville U19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cliftonville U19; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cliftonville U19 by 11.0 percentage points (47.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cliftonville U19 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Super Nova U19 34.2%
- xG · Cliftonville U19 1.32 — Super Nova U19 1.28
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cliftonville U19 1.91 · Draw 4.10 · Super Nova U19 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Cliftonville U19 47.1% · Draw 21.9% · Super Nova U19 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cliftonville U19 1.91 · Draw 4.10 · Super Nova U19 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Cliftonville U19 47.1% · Draw 21.9% · Super Nova U19 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
45/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Cliftonville U19 0–0 Super Nova U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.206,
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
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"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cliftonville U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cliftonville U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cliftonville U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3107,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/2",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.96,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Cliftonville U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cliftonville U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cliftonville U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cliftonville U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3107,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cliftonville U19 1.32 xG vs Super Nova U19 1.28 \u2192 Cliftonville U19 36.1%",
"Market: Cliftonville U19 ~47.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Cliftonville U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cliftonville U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.96,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Cliftonville U19",
"market_prob": 47.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.72,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.24,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Super Nova U19",
"market_prob": 31.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.84,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.84,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cliftonville U19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.07,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cliftonville U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cliftonville U19\u0027s win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cliftonville U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Cliftonville U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cliftonville U19 1.32 xG vs Super Nova U19 1.28 \u2192 Cliftonville U19 36.1%",
"Market: Cliftonville U19 ~47.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Cliftonville U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cliftonville U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.96,
"hero_label": "Cliftonville U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cliftonville U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cliftonville U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Cliftonville U19 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Cliftonville U19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Cliftonville U19 (pricing gap 11.0 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cliftonville U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cliftonville U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.96,
"edge_pp": -10.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cliftonville U19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.72,
"edge_pp": 7.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.93,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.24,
"edge_pp": 3.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Super Nova U19",
"market_prob_pct": 31.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cliftonville U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cliftonville U19 (47.1%).",
"Cliftonville U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
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"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Cliftonville U19",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Cliftonville U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Super Nova U19",
"away_team_id": 28406,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Super Nova U19",
"away_team_public_id": "5AEGOBe6TSIAcp",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638829,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Cliftonville U19",
"home_team_id": 24975,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24975.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cliftonville U19",
"home_team_public_id": "4vAhGF3sIarplz",
"home_team_slug": "cliftonville-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cliftonville-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Belia UEFA",
"league_id": 14,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/14.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Belia UEFA",
"league_public_id": "0O2LDVNjXeCxtU",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3sUL2wKKkgY4nW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belfast",
"venue_name": "Solitude"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4281,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.31,
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"away": 0.31,
"draw": 0.2193,
"home": 0.4707
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3239
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1768,
"best_odd": 4.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.2193,
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"draw": 0.2193,
"home": 0.4707
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.233
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5012,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.206,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.31,
"draw": 0.2193,
"home": 0.4707
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4157
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
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"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0024,
"ev": -0.0071,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.0528,
"ev": 0.2164,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1626,
"ev": -0.3106,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
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"alpha_yes": 0.1555,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0684,
"edge_yes": -0.0684,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0829,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0615,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0958,
"implied_no": 0.3866,
"implied_yes": 0.6134,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.3943,
"p_final_yes": 0.6028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1427,
"alpha_under": 0.1038,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.32,
"edge_over": -0.1175,
"edge_under": 0.1175,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0968,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0425,
"implied_over": 0.5995,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5995,
"implied_under": 0.4005,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4005,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1427,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0968,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5827
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5827,
"p_final_under": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cliftonville U19 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cliftonville U19 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cliftonville U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cliftonville U19).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3107,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.055,
"ev": -0.206,
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cliftonville U19"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
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"p_final": 0.3943
},
"p_final": 0.3943,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.6134,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"edge": 0.0684,
"ev": 0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.3866,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0122,
"market_prob": 0.4005,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1427,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0968,
"implied_prob": 0.5995,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5827
},
"p_final": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0425,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.0425,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1175,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638829,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Super Nova U19",
"home": "Cliftonville U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069338,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4005,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.206,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3107,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638829,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T18:45:06.656155+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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