The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Monagas SC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Monagas SC Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Zuliano | 32.9% | 29.2% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.2% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Monagas SC | 37.5% | 43.6% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Monagas SC's win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Monagas SC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Monagas SC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Monagas SC by 6.0 percentage points (43.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rayo Zuliano 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Monagas SC 37.6%
- xG · Rayo Zuliano 1.25 — Monagas SC 1.35
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rayo Zuliano 3.13 · Draw 3.37 · Monagas SC 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Rayo Zuliano 29.2% · Draw 27.2% · Monagas SC 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rayo Zuliano 3.13 · Draw 3.37 · Monagas SC 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Rayo Zuliano 29.2% · Draw 27.2% · Monagas SC 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.1
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Rayo Zuliano 1–1 Monagas SC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1364,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.6,
"text": "-13.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
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"max_ev": -0.0524,
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"capped": false,
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"text": "-5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Monagas SC",
"sort_key": 1786.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"divergence_pp": 6.1,
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"hero_edge_pp": -6.05,
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"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 6.0,
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"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Monagas SC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Monagas SC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Monagas SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1364,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.05,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Rayo Zuliano",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Monagas SC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Monagas SC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Monagas SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1364,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rayo Zuliano 1.25 xG vs Monagas SC 1.35 \u2192 Monagas SC 37.5%",
"Market: Monagas SC ~43.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Rayo Zuliano +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Monagas SC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Rayo Zuliano",
"market_prob": 29.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.45,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Monagas SC",
"market_prob": 43.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.41,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.41,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Monagas SC",
"market_prob_pct": 43.59,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Rayo Zuliano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Monagas SC\u0027s win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Monagas SC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Monagas SC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rayo Zuliano 1.25 xG vs Monagas SC 1.35 \u2192 Monagas SC 37.5%",
"Market: Monagas SC ~43.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Rayo Zuliano +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Monagas SC with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.05,
"hero_label": "Monagas SC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Rayo Zuliano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Monagas SC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rayo Zuliano.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Monagas SC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Rayo Zuliano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Rayo Zuliano."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Monagas SC above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Rayo Zuliano has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Rayo Zuliano."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Monagas SC",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Monagas SC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.6,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rayo Zuliano",
"market_prob_pct": 29.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.45,
"edge_pp": 2.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.05,
"edge_pp": -6.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Monagas SC",
"market_prob_pct": 43.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rayo Zuliano.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Monagas SC (43.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Monagas SC, Market \u2192 Monagas SC, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.62,
"closing_odds": 2.1,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.62,
"entry_odds": 2.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Rayo Zuliano",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Rayo Zuliano",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "monagas-sc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Monagas SC",
"away_team_id": 2811,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2811.webp",
"away_team_name": "Monagas SC",
"away_team_public_id": "20W6grtqVz7zXD",
"away_team_slug": "monagas-sc",
"country_code": "VE",
"country_display_name": "Venezuela",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ve.svg",
"country_id": 165,
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"fixture_id": 1638773,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Venezuela",
"home_team_display_name": "Rayo Zuliano",
"home_team_id": 16847,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16847.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rayo Zuliano",
"home_team_public_id": "0kzsUbyNbExmtz",
"home_team_slug": "rayo-zuliano",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rayo-zuliano",
"league_country": "Venezuela",
"league_country_display": "Venezuela",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Venezuela",
"league_id": 299,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/299.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Venezuela",
"league_public_id": "0uLuRYrdncTjSf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 19:30:00",
"public_id": "01wu3gbcvXDbl7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Maracaibo",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jos\u00e9 Pachencho Romero"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4093,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1364,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4359,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.2925
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4112
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2892,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.2716,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4359,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.2925
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2786
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0524,
"implied_prob": 0.2925,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4359,
"draw": 0.2716,
"home": 0.2925
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3027
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1005,
"ev": -0.2111,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0037,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": 0.0288,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2118,
"alpha_yes": 0.233,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0341,
"edge_yes": -0.0341,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0709,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1031,
"implied_no": 0.4209,
"implied_yes": 0.5791,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4243
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.233,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.584,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5749
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4243,
"p_final_yes": 0.5749,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2238,
"alpha_under": 0.2034,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": -0.0636,
"edge_under": 0.0636,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1068,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"implied_over": 0.5456,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5459,
"implied_under": 0.4544,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4541,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5316
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4541,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4671
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5316,
"p_final_under": 0.4671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Monagas SC at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Monagas SC as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Monagas SC",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Monagas SC).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1364,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.1364,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Monagas SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0083,
"market_prob": 0.416,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4243
},
"p_final": 0.4243,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0709,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.233,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1031,
"implied_prob": 0.584,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5749
}
},
"edge": 0.0341,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4209,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.4541,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1068,
"implied_prob": 0.5459,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5316
},
"p_final": 0.4671,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4541,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4671
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0636,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638773,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Monagas SC",
"home": "Rayo Zuliano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4544,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1364,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.211,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638773,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T19:29:39.329465+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Venezuela — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Táchira FC | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 8 | Estudiantes de Mérida FC | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Caracas FC | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 26 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Zamora FC | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Táchira FC | 24 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Mérida FC | 24 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 9 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 25 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Caracas FC | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 26 |
| 12 | Zamora FC | 24 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 14 |
