AI correctly predicted the Macclesfield win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Macclesfield Macclesfield ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redcar Athletic | 30.6% | 23.1% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.1% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Macclesfield | 39.9% | 53.9% | -13.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Macclesfield's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Macclesfield win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Macclesfield higher (53.8% vs model 39.9%, 13.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Macclesfield win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Redcar Athletic 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Macclesfield 40.0%
- xG · Redcar Athletic 1.20 — Macclesfield 1.40
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Redcar Athletic 3.90 · Draw 3.90 · Macclesfield 1.67
- Implied 1X2 · Redcar Athletic 23.1% · Draw 23.1% · Macclesfield 53.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:13 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Redcar Athletic 3.90 · Draw 3.90 · Macclesfield 1.67
- Implied 1X2 · Redcar Athletic 23.1% · Draw 23.1% · Macclesfield 53.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Macclesfield win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
30/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Macclesfield win · Redcar Athletic 1–2 Macclesfield
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.2106,
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},
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],
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"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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},
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
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"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macclesfield at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Macclesfield as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Macclesfield",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.93,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Redcar Athletic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macclesfield at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macclesfield as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Macclesfield",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Redcar Athletic 1.20 xG vs Macclesfield 1.40 \u2192 Macclesfield 39.9%",
"Market: Macclesfield ~53.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Redcar Athletic +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Macclesfield with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.51,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Redcar Athletic",
"market_prob": 23.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob": 53.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.81,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.81,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob_pct": 53.87,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Redcar Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Macclesfield\u0027s win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Macclesfield",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Macclesfield \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Redcar Athletic 1.20 xG vs Macclesfield 1.40 \u2192 Macclesfield 39.9%",
"Market: Macclesfield ~53.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Redcar Athletic +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Macclesfield with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.93,
"hero_label": "Macclesfield",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Macclesfield is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Macclesfield is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Macclesfield more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Macclesfield (pricing gap 13.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Macclesfield",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Macclesfield higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.51,
"edge_pp": 7.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Redcar Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 23.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.41,
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.93,
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob_pct": 53.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Macclesfield (53.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Macclesfield, Market \u2192 Macclesfield, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.88,
"closing_odds": 1.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.88,
"entry_odds": 1.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Redcar Athletic",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Redcar Athletic",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "macclesfield",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Macclesfield",
"away_team_id": 1380,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1380.webp",
"away_team_name": "Macclesfield",
"away_team_public_id": "0DWmUhBAcDkWOK",
"away_team_slug": "macclesfield",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1638713,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Redcar Athletic",
"home_team_id": 16994,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16994.webp",
"home_team_name": "Redcar Athletic",
"home_team_public_id": "5avpuvyyjRdvgr",
"home_team_slug": "redcar-athletic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "redcar-athletic",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Piala FA",
"league_id": 45,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/45.webp",
"league_name": "Piala FA",
"league_public_id": "3qBU7du2W45n9v",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2dXqbbDR0o3vnX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4749,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2106,
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2307,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2712,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.2307,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2307,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.248
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2663,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.2307,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2307,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2506
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.1991,
"ev": -0.3325,
"implied_prob": 0.5988,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0383,
"ev": 0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0492,
"ev": 0.1917,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1509,
"alpha_yes": 0.166,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.63,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0281,
"edge_yes": -0.0281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0083,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.06,
"ev_yes": -0.1149,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0768,
"implied_no": 0.4289,
"implied_yes": 0.5711,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4332
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5664
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.4332,
"p_final_yes": 0.5664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.146,
"alpha_under": 0.1062,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.26,
"edge_over": -0.105,
"edge_under": 0.105,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.091,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0415,
"implied_over": 0.587,
"implied_over_mf": 0.587,
"implied_under": 0.413,
"implied_under_mf": 0.413,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4241
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5717,
"p_final_under": 0.4241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macclesfield at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macclesfield as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Macclesfield",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2106,
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Macclesfield"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
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"p_final": 0.4332
},
"p_final": 0.4332,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5664
}
},
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.413,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"p_final": 0.4241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4241
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.105,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638713,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Macclesfield",
"home": "Redcar Athletic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069338,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638713,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:13:12.085736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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