The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Chengdu Rongcheng II at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Chengdu Rongcheng II Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Chengdu Rongcheng II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:27 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.40 — Tai'an Tiankuang 1.20
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Tai'an Tiankuang
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II or Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II"
},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 19.2,
"implied_prob": 33.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Chengdu Rongcheng II Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 2.98
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
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"label": "1-1",
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"text": "+23.4%"
},
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"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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{
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"no": {
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},
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.7,
"text": "-23.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1403,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10126.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.016,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.016,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1911,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"sort_key": 5212.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chengdu Rongcheng II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chengdu Rongcheng II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.016,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1911,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chengdu Rongcheng II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chengdu Rongcheng II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.016,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1911,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.40 xG vs Tai\u0027an Tiankuang 1.20 \u2192 Chengdu Rongcheng II 39.9%",
"Market Drift: Chengdu Rongcheng II odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.81,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.81,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.40 xG vs Tai\u0027an Tiankuang 1.20 \u2192 Chengdu Rongcheng II 39.9%",
"Market Drift: Chengdu Rongcheng II odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Chengdu Rongcheng II odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Chengdu Rongcheng II (39.9%).",
"However, Chengdu Rongcheng II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.33,
"entry_odds": 3.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "Ready to validate",
"clv_status": "ready",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books lengthened Chengdu Rongcheng II together (25.0% drift, score 77) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.70",
"2.40"
],
"display": "3.01 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 31m",
"pick_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.98,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Chengdu Rongcheng II odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Chengdu Rongcheng II odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_team_name": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tai-an-tiankuang",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"away_team_id": 19321,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19321.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"away_team_public_id": "2BceBlk6Iakhgp",
"away_team_slug": "tai-an-tiankuang",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1638507,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"home_team_id": 25839,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25839.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"home_team_public_id": "5czOFFbuEm6bH9",
"home_team_slug": "chengdu-rongcheng-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chengdu-rongcheng-ii",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "Liga Dua China",
"league_id": 929,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/929.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Dua China",
"league_public_id": "0OTBiwD3vrqemv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:35:00",
"public_id": "3w7aFKIAbMTyUe",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chengdu",
"venue_name": "Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4173,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0202,
"ev": -0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.354,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.354,
"draw": 0.3419,
"home": 0.3041
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3338
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4181,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.3419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.354,
"draw": 0.3419,
"home": 0.3041
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.3222
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3855,
"best_odd": 2.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0369,
"ev": 0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.354,
"draw": 0.3419,
"home": 0.3041
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3409
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0851,
"ev": -0.2177,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.0826,
"ev": -0.2189,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.98,
"edge": 0.0641,
"ev": 0.1911,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2108,
"alpha_yes": 0.1916,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0981,
"edge_yes": 0.0981,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2368,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1172,
"ev_yes": 0.1403,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0437,
"implied_no": 0.5551,
"implied_yes": 0.4449,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.535
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4631
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.535,
"p_final_yes": 0.4631,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.148,
"alpha_under": 0.2036,
"best_over_odd": 2.56,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.117,
"edge_under": -0.117,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2339,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0395,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1183,
"implied_over": 0.365,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3636,
"implied_under": 0.635,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6364,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3812,
"p_final_under": 0.6123,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2339,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2339,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chengdu Rongcheng II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chengdu Rongcheng II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chengdu Rongcheng II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Chengdu Rongcheng II, but the model still strongly favours Chengdu Rongcheng II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.016,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1911,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0369,
"ev": 0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chengdu Rongcheng II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0189,
"market_prob": 0.4441,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.535
},
"p_final": 0.4631,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0437,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": -0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4631
}
},
"edge": 0.0981,
"ev": 0.1403,
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3636,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.148,
"best_odd": 2.52,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0395,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3812
},
"p_final": 0.3812,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0395,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2036,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6123
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.117,
"ev": 0.2339,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638507,
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"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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"min_ev": 0.02,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tai\u0027an Tiankuang",
"home": "Chengdu Rongcheng II"
},
"top_pick": {
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"side": "over",
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"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.016,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33557046979865773,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1911,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+19.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638507,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T11:27:53.630376+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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