The model missed the final outcome (Brøndby win 4–1).
The model had projected Sporting CP Wanita at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Sporting CP Wanita Brøndby ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brøndby | 34.7% | 32.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Sporting CP Wanita | 35.6% | 41.5% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sporting CP Wanita's win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Brøndby win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Wanita. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sporting CP Wanita by 5.9 percentage points (41.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brøndby 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Sporting CP Wanita 35.6%
- xG · Brøndby 1.29 — Sporting CP Wanita 1.31
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brøndby 2.71 · Draw 3.46 · Sporting CP Wanita 2.14
- Implied 1X2 · Brøndby 32.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sporting CP Wanita 41.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Brøndby 2.71 · Draw 3.46 · Sporting CP Wanita 2.14
- Implied 1X2 · Brøndby 32.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sporting CP Wanita 41.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Brøndby win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.14
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Brøndby win · Brøndby 4–1 Sporting CP Wanita
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
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{
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}
]
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},
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},
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{
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}
},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1634,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0724,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"sort_key": 1781.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"alert_team": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"market_team": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP Wanita at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP Wanita as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.89,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"steam_team": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP Wanita at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP Wanita as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Br\u00f8ndby 1.29 xG vs Sporting CP Wanita 1.31 \u2192 Sporting CP Wanita 35.6%",
"Market: Sporting CP Wanita ~41.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Br\u00f8ndby odds \u2191 +21.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sporting CP Wanita with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.91,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"market_prob": 32.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"market_prob": 41.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.97,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.97,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 41.53,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Br\u00f8ndby"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sporting CP Wanita\u0027s win probability at 41.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Sporting CP Wanita \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Br\u00f8ndby 1.29 xG vs Sporting CP Wanita 1.31 \u2192 Sporting CP Wanita 35.6%",
"Market: Sporting CP Wanita ~41.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Br\u00f8ndby odds \u2191 +21.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sporting CP Wanita with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
"hero_label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Br\u00f8ndby odds lengthened \u2191 +21.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Br\u00f8ndby has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Wanita. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Br\u00f8ndby \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sporting CP Wanita. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Br\u00f8ndby has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Br\u00f8ndby \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sporting CP Wanita above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Br\u00f8ndby has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Br\u00f8ndby."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sporting CP Wanita higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.91,
"edge_pp": 1.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"market_prob_pct": 32.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.97,
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.89,
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 41.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Br\u00f8ndby \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sporting CP Wanita (41.5%).",
"However, Br\u00f8ndby has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.7%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Sporting CP Wanita \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.73,
"closing_odds": 2.14,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.73,
"entry_odds": 2.14,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books lengthened Br\u00f8ndby together (21.7% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.55",
"2.30"
],
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 2m",
"pick_team": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.3,
2.71,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.2 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.3,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Br\u00f8ndby odds \u2191 +21.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Br\u00f8ndby odds \u2191 +21.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"open_odds": 2.3,
"pick_team": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sporting-cp-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"away_team_id": 20511,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20511.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"away_team_public_id": "1ZtgsuXdj8y3dr",
"away_team_slug": "sporting-cp-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638398,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Denmark",
"home_team_display_name": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"home_team_id": 10883,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10883.webp",
"home_team_name": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Br\u00f8ndby",
"home_team_public_id": "59RZDdhPh4lmZT",
"home_team_slug": "brndby",
"ht.home_team_slug": "brndby",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Piala Europa UEFA - Wanita",
"league_id": 1191,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1191.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Europa UEFA - Wanita",
"league_public_id": "31H7W631HCwxDJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0gcoToj5KuBmF7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Copenhagen",
"venue_name": "Br\u00f8ndby Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.41,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4153,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3909
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0724,
"implied_prob": 0.2568,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4153,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2681
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4369,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0884,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4153,
"draw": 0.2568,
"home": 0.3279
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3364
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.1114,
"ev": -0.2383,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": 0.0269,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.0589,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1681,
"alpha_yes": 0.2312,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0435,
"edge_yes": -0.0435,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"ev_yes": -0.128,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0912,
"implied_no": 0.4115,
"implied_yes": 0.5885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4184,
"p_final_yes": 0.5788,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2232,
"alpha_under": 0.2029,
"best_over_odd": 1.68,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": -0.0697,
"edge_under": 0.0697,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1902,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1102,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.059,
"implied_over": 0.5517,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5474,
"implied_under": 0.4483,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5328,
"p_final_under": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sporting CP Wanita at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sporting CP Wanita as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sporting CP Wanita).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0243,
"ev": -0.1634,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sporting CP Wanita"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1681,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4184
},
"p_final": 0.4184,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2312,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5788
}
},
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2232,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0146,
"ev": -0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5328
},
"p_final": 0.4659,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2029,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0697,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638398,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sporting CP Wanita",
"home": "Br\u00f8ndby"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4483,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1634,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638398,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T15:59:44.171195+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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