The model missed the final outcome (Concepción win 2–0).
The model had projected Curico Unido at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Curico Unido Concepción ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 34.2% | 63.0% | -28.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.0% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Curico Unido | 36.1% | 14.0% | +22.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Concepción's win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Concepción win 2–0.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Curico Unido by 28.8 percentage points (64.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Concepción 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Curico Unido 36.1%
- xG · Concepción 1.28 — Curico Unido 1.32
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Concepción 1.45 · Draw 3.98 · Curico Unido 6.54
- Implied 1X2 · Concepción 63.0% · Draw 23.0% · Curico Unido 14.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Concepción 1.45 · Draw 3.98 · Curico Unido 6.54
- Implied 1X2 · Concepción 63.0% · Draw 23.0% · Curico Unido 14.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Concepción win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.45
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Concepción win · Concepción 2–0 Curico Unido
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Concepci\u00f3n or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Concepci\u00f3n"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Curico Unido",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": 0.2211,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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}
],
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 7.15,
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"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.4,
"prob_edge": 20.8,
"value_pct": 136.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Concepci\u00f3n or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Concepci\u00f3n or Curico Unido",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Curico Unido",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Concepci\u00f3n or Curico Unido",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Curico Unido"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 136.1,
"implied_prob": 15.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Curico Unido Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 6.54
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Curico Unido",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 13.98,
"draw": 22.97,
"home": 63.05
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 18:01:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 17:31:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.05,
"gap_pp": -28.81,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.97,
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"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 13.98,
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"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.24,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.76,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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{
"closing": 3.98,
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{
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{
"closing": 2.07,
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{
"closing": 1.71,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4126,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5611
},
"p_final": 0.4317,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2181,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0351,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
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"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0351,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3625,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10476.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 6.54,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.8,
"text": "+10.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1075,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.8,
"text": "+10.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Curico Unido",
"sort_key": 10096.75,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0065,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4515,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4515,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4581
},
"p_final": 0.4581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0047,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0541,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2362,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.5485,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5413
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0218,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5217.44,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -18.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.81,
"hero_label": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 14.0,
"market_team": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Curico Unido",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Curico Unido at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 14.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Curico Unido as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Curico Unido",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 6.54,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1529051987767584,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (29 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -18.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Curico Unido at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 14.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Curico Unido as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Curico Unido",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 6.54,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1529051987767584,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Concepci\u00f3n 1.28 xG vs Curico Unido 1.32 \u2192 Curico Unido 36.1%",
"Market: Concepci\u00f3n ~14.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -18.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Curico Unido, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 63.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.68,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.13,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Curico Unido",
"market_prob": 13.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.74,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.74,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 63.05,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Concepci\u00f3n\u0027s win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Curico Unido",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 14.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.1,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Concepci\u00f3n 1.28 xG vs Curico Unido 1.32 \u2192 Curico Unido 36.1%",
"Market: Concepci\u00f3n ~14.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -18.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Curico Unido, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.81,
"hero_label": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -18.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"largest_gap_pp": -28.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Concepci\u00f3n higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -28.81,
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 63.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.68,
"edge_pp": 6.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 22.13,
"edge_pp": 22.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Curico Unido",
"market_prob_pct": 13.98,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Concepci\u00f3n (14.0%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -18.0%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Curico Unido, Market \u2192 Concepci\u00f3n, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 68.97,
"closing_odds": 1.45,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 68.97,
"entry_odds": 1.45,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Draw (18.0% steam, score 90) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.49",
"3.98"
],
"display": "5.00 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 55m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
3.98,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,15.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.98"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -18.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -18.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 90,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "curico-unido",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Curico Unido",
"away_team_id": 2316,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2316.webp",
"away_team_name": "Curico Unido",
"away_team_public_id": "0vrFoiZTEjoq5b",
"away_team_slug": "curico-unido",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1638392,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"home_team_id": 5635,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5635.webp",
"home_team_name": "Concepci\u00f3n",
"home_team_public_id": "0s8Uft4LiZfkkj",
"home_team_slug": "concepcion",
"ht.home_team_slug": "concepcion",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Copa Chile",
"league_id": 267,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/267.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Chile",
"league_public_id": "4gcQc1atBcngKw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 18:00:00",
"public_id": "2sFUe32Bdtdjus",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Ester Roa"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1337,
"best_odd": 6.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1398,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.6305
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.1693
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2699,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0138,
"implied_prob": 0.2297,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1398,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.6305
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2478
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3407,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0982,
"ev": -0.2281,
"implied_prob": 0.6305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1398,
"draw": 0.2297,
"home": 0.6305
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.5323
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.54,
"edge": 0.208,
"ev": 1.3605,
"implied_prob": 0.1529,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.0454,
"ev": 0.1808,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.3473,
"ev": -0.5035,
"implied_prob": 0.6897,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1984,
"alpha_yes": 0.1443,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1374,
"edge_yes": 0.1374,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.119,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0351,
"implied_no": 0.5924,
"implied_yes": 0.4076,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5611
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4317
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5611,
"p_final_yes": 0.4317,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2147,
"alpha_under": 0.2362,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.065,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.032,
"edge_under": -0.032,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0541,
"ev_under": -0.1039,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0798,
"implied_over": 0.45,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4515,
"implied_under": 0.55,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5485,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4515,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4581
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2362,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.5485,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5413
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4581,
"p_final_under": 0.5413,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.3605,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Curico Unido at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 14.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Curico Unido as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Curico Unido",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Curico Unido.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 6.54,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1529051987767584,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 6.54,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0296,
"ev": 0.1075,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Curico Unido"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.4126,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0263,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.5874,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5611
},
"p_final": 0.4317,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0351,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.4126,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4317
}
},
"edge": 0.1374,
"ev": 0.3625,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.4515,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2147,
"best_odd": 2.065,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0541,
"implied_prob": 0.4515,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4581
},
"p_final": 0.4581,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0541,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2362,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0072,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.5485,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5413
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0218,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.45,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638392,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3625,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Curico Unido",
"home": "Concepci\u00f3n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "+10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 6.54,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.1529051987767584,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+136.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638392,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:01:11.931100+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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