The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Peñarol at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Peñarol Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 29.7% | 33.2% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 32.2% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Peñarol | 40.9% | 34.6% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Peñarol's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Peñarol.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Peñarol; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Peñarol by 6.3 percentage points (34.6% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Danubio 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Peñarol 41.0%
- xG · Danubio 1.18 — Peñarol 1.42
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Danubio 2.74 · Draw 2.83 · Peñarol 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Danubio 33.2% · Draw 32.2% · Peñarol 34.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Danubio 2.74 · Draw 2.83 · Peñarol 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Danubio 33.2% · Draw 32.2% · Peñarol 34.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
68/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Danubio 1–1 Peñarol
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"value_side": "over"
},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0218,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0218,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"sort_key": 1794.55,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.3,
"hero_label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"market_team": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1361,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1361,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pe\u00f1arol at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pe\u00f1arol as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.3,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1361,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1361,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pe\u00f1arol at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pe\u00f1arol as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Danubio 1.18 xG vs Pe\u00f1arol 1.42 \u2192 Pe\u00f1arol 40.9%",
"Market: Pe\u00f1arol ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pe\u00f1arol with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Danubio",
"market_prob": 33.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.77,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.3,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"market_prob": 34.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.1,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.1,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.66,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"market_prob_pct": 34.61,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Pe\u00f1arol\u0027s win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 34.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Pe\u00f1arol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Danubio 1.18 xG vs Pe\u00f1arol 1.42 \u2192 Pe\u00f1arol 40.9%",
"Market: Pe\u00f1arol ~34.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Pe\u00f1arol with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.3,
"hero_label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Pe\u00f1arol.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Pe\u00f1arol.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Pe\u00f1arol.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.3,
"lead": "The model rates Pe\u00f1arol considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.53,
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Danubio",
"market_prob_pct": 33.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.77,
"edge_pp": -2.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.3,
"edge_pp": 6.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"market_prob_pct": 34.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Pe\u00f1arol (34.6%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 1/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Pe\u00f1arol \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.02,
"closing_odds": 2.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.02,
"entry_odds": 2.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.25 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.20) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.02",
"2.83"
],
"display": "3.25 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 52m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
2.83,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,4.9 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "penarol",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"away_team_id": 2348,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2348.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"away_team_public_id": "42ZeFEpakj2ymp",
"away_team_slug": "penarol",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1638264,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Danubio",
"home_team_id": 2352,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2352.webp",
"home_team_name": "Danubio",
"home_team_public_id": "2yFxs91SscUdwb",
"home_team_slug": "danubio",
"ht.home_team_slug": "danubio",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Copa Uruguay",
"league_id": 930,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/930.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Uruguay",
"league_public_id": "2Mk5eFfXjSLT95",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 18:30:00",
"public_id": "5gtHefhsSP1kit",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4072,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3461,
"draw": 0.3217,
"home": 0.3322
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.3719
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4313,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.3217,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3461,
"draw": 0.3217,
"home": 0.3322
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.3097
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4259,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0152,
"ev": -0.1314,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3461,
"draw": 0.3217,
"home": 0.3322
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.317
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.63,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.3802,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0594,
"ev": -0.1682,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.0684,
"ev": -0.1875,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2202,
"alpha_yes": 0.2002,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0766,
"edge_yes": 0.0766,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1968,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1069,
"ev_yes": 0.1361,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0499,
"implied_no": 0.5356,
"implied_yes": 0.4644,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5163
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4823
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5163,
"p_final_yes": 0.4823,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.161,
"alpha_under": 0.2213,
"best_over_odd": 2.32,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.245,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.071,
"edge_under": -0.071,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1182,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0506,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1006,
"implied_over": 0.411,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4115,
"implied_under": 0.589,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4229
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5729
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4229,
"p_final_under": 0.5729,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1361,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1361,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1361,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1361,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1361,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Pe\u00f1arol at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Pe\u00f1arol as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Pe\u00f1arol).",
"Decision strength: 7.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0258,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Pe\u00f1arol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5163
},
"p_final": 0.4823,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0499,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4823
}
},
"edge": 0.0766,
"ev": 0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.4644,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.4115,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4229
},
"p_final": 0.4229,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0506,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5729
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.071,
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638264,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1361,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1182,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pe\u00f1arol",
"home": "Danubio"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.07363,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.4644,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0218,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3802281368821293,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638264,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T18:29:07.491445+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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