The model missed the final outcome (Urawa Red Diamonds win 2–3).
The model had projected Kataller Toyama at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Kataller Toyama Urawa Red Diamonds ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 35.6% | 23.2% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 34.7% | 52.9% | -18.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Urawa Red Diamonds's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Urawa Red Diamonds win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Urawa Red Diamonds than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kataller Toyama by 18.2 percentage points (53.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kataller Toyama 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Urawa Red Diamonds 34.7%
- xG · Kataller Toyama 1.31 — Urawa Red Diamonds 1.29
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kataller Toyama 4.06 · Draw 3.93 · Urawa Red Diamonds 1.78
- Implied 1X2 · Kataller Toyama 23.2% · Draw 23.9% · Urawa Red Diamonds 52.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kataller Toyama 4.06 · Draw 3.93 · Urawa Red Diamonds 1.78
- Implied 1X2 · Kataller Toyama 23.2% · Draw 23.9% · Urawa Red Diamonds 52.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Urawa Red Diamonds win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
3/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Urawa Red Diamonds win · Kataller Toyama 2–3 Urawa Red Diamonds
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "59989df6bc4e90ff9ff5caadd431767ade0d97eff5f94e40d8a71470208326ae",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Urawa Red Diamonds and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kataller Toyama",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1241,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2318,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.06
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.06,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Kataller Toyama Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.31,
"market_odds": 4.06,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 6.3,
"prob_edge": 11.0,
"value_pct": 44.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kataller Toyama or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kataller Toyama or Urawa Red Diamonds",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Urawa Red Diamonds",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Kataller Toyama or Urawa Red Diamonds",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kataller Toyama"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 44.5,
"implied_prob": 24.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Kataller Toyama Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 4.06
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 52.87,
"draw": 23.95,
"home": 23.18
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 10:00:38",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 09:30:41",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kataller Toyama",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.18,
"gap_pp": 12.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.95,
"gap_pp": 5.73,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.87,
"gap_pp": -18.14,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.58,
"gap_pp": -9.38,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.42,
"gap_pp": 9.38,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.18,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.93,
"early": 3.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.95,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.87,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.58,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.42,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.1,
"ev": 0.008,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.017,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4308,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.5692,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5504
},
"p_final": 0.4479,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1189,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0326,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4479
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.5,
"text": "+14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1448,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10280.32,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.007,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4222,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4292
},
"p_final": 0.4292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0035,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2353,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.5778,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5701
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"consensus_odds": 4.06,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0232,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0232,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kataller Toyama",
"sort_key": 5218.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.17,
"hero_label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob_pct": 23.2,
"market_team": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Kataller Toyama",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kataller Toyama at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kataller Toyama as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kataller Toyama",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kataller Toyama \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.79 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638194 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.79 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24630541871921185,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kataller Toyama at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kataller Toyama as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kataller Toyama",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kataller Toyama \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.79 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638194 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.79 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24630541871921185,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kataller Toyama 1.31 xG vs Urawa Red Diamonds 1.29 \u2192 Kataller Toyama 35.6%",
"Market: Urawa Red Diamonds ~23.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -1.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kataller Toyama, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 12.46,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Kataller Toyama",
"market_prob": 23.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.17,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob": 52.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -18.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob_pct": 52.87,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Urawa Red Diamonds\u0027s win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 18.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kataller Toyama",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kataller Toyama 1.31 xG vs Urawa Red Diamonds 1.29 \u2192 Kataller Toyama 35.6%",
"Market: Urawa Red Diamonds ~23.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -1.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kataller Toyama, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.17,
"hero_label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -1.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 1.3%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Urawa Red Diamonds than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Urawa Red Diamonds than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 1.3%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Urawa Red Diamonds more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 1.3%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"largest_gap_pp": -18.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Urawa Red Diamonds higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 12.46,
"edge_pp": 12.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kataller Toyama",
"market_prob_pct": 23.18,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.7,
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -18.17,
"edge_pp": -18.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"market_prob_pct": 52.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Urawa Red Diamonds (23.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kataller Toyama, Market \u2192 Urawa Red Diamonds, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "urawa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"away_team_id": 287,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/287.webp",
"away_team_name": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"away_team_public_id": "1Ppsz4BpZqXORz",
"away_team_slug": "urawa",
"country_code": "JP",
"country_display_name": "Japan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/jp.svg",
"country_id": 82,
"country_name": "Japan",
"fixture_id": 1638194,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Japan",
"home_team_display_name": "Kataller Toyama",
"home_team_id": 4322,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4322.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kataller Toyama",
"home_team_public_id": "08TUKmAekdxJGk",
"home_team_slug": "kataller-toyama",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kataller-toyama",
"league_country": "Japan",
"league_country_display": "Japan",
"league_display_name": "J.League Cup",
"league_id": 101,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/101.webp",
"league_name": "J.League Cup",
"league_public_id": "40WbqykjJYnOS6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 10:00:00",
"public_id": "12EXVyUtrubsQq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Toyama",
"venue_name": "Toyama Athletic Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4367,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0792,
"ev": -0.1999,
"implied_prob": 0.5287,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5287,
"draw": 0.2395,
"home": 0.2318
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2742,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": 0.0029,
"implied_prob": 0.2395,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5287,
"draw": 0.2395,
"home": 0.2318
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2552
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1628,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5287,
"draw": 0.2395,
"home": 0.2318
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.252
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.2145,
"ev": -0.3818,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.1096,
"ev": 0.4451,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2139,
"alpha_yes": 0.2353,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0342,
"edge_yes": -0.0342,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0878,
"implied_no": 0.4208,
"implied_yes": 0.5792,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4292
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2353,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.5778,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5701
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4292,
"p_final_yes": 0.5701,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2151,
"alpha_under": 0.1956,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.635,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.0878,
"edge_under": 0.0878,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1001,
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0326,
"implied_over": 0.5698,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5692,
"implied_under": 0.4302,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4308,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.5692,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5504
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4479
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5504,
"p_final_under": 0.4479,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kataller Toyama at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kataller Toyama as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kataller Toyama",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Kataller Toyama \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.79 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638194 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.79 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Kataller Toyama.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24630541871921185,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.06,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0202,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kataller Toyama"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.007,
"market_prob": 0.4222,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2139,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.4222,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4292
},
"p_final": 0.4292,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2353,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.5778,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5701
}
},
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.4308,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2151,
"best_odd": 1.635,
"edge": -0.0188,
"ev": -0.1001,
"implied_prob": 0.5692,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5504
},
"p_final": 0.4479,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0326,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1956,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.4308,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4479
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0878,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638194,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1448,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Urawa Red Diamonds",
"home": "Kataller Toyama"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052504,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0232,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24630541871921185,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.445,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638194,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T10:00:40.031433+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Kataller Toyama & Urawa Red Diamonds!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Jepun. J.League Cup Ramalan
