The model missed the final outcome (Iraq win 2–3).
The model had projected Kuwait at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Kuwait Iraq ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 36.1% | 12.7% | +23.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.1% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Iraq | 34.2% | 63.2% | -28.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Iraq's win probability at 63.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 28.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Iraq win 2–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Kuwait; match finished Iraq
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kuwait by 28.9 percentage points (65.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:54 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kuwait 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Iraq 34.2%
- xG · Kuwait 1.32 — Iraq 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:24 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kuwait 7.44 · Draw 3.93 · Iraq 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Kuwait 12.7% · Draw 24.1% · Iraq 63.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kuwait 7.44 · Draw 3.93 · Iraq 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Kuwait 12.7% · Draw 24.1% · Iraq 63.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Iraq win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.5
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Iraq win · Kuwait 2–3 Iraq
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Iraq",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Iraq",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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"away": 63.16,
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 15:54:02",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 15:24:02",
"has_data": true,
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "-27.2%"
},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "+22.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"sort_key": 10353.67,
"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 7.44,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1732,
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"text": "+17.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+168.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Kuwait",
"sort_key": 10155.88,
"tier": "best"
},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0105,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.4314,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4419
},
"p_final": 0.4419,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0291,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.5686,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.557
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.5,
"text": "+6.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.0,
"text": "-13.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0652,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10058.68,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Kuwait",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.92,
"hero_label": "Iraq",
"market_prob_pct": 12.7,
"market_team": "Iraq",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Kuwait",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016853,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kuwait at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 12.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kuwait as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kuwait",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1732,
"consensus_ev_display": "+17.3%",
"consensus_odds": 7.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1273,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.13440860215053763,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.6851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+168.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (29 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.92,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Kuwait",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016853,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kuwait at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 12.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kuwait as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kuwait",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1732,
"consensus_ev_display": "+17.3%",
"consensus_odds": 7.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1273,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 23.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.13440860215053763,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.6851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+168.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kuwait 1.32 xG vs Iraq 1.28 \u2192 Kuwait 36.1%",
"Market: Iraq ~12.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Kuwait odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kuwait, but the market has moved away from Kuwait.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 23.38,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Kuwait",
"market_prob": 12.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.92,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Iraq",
"market_prob": 63.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.23,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.23,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Iraq",
"market_prob_pct": 63.16,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Kuwait"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Iraq\u0027s win probability at 63.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 28.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 28.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kuwait",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 12.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+23.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 23.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+23.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kuwait 1.32 xG vs Iraq 1.28 \u2192 Kuwait 36.1%",
"Market: Iraq ~12.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Kuwait odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kuwait, but the market has moved away from Kuwait.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.92,
"hero_label": "Iraq",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Kuwait odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Iraq",
"largest_gap_pp": -28.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Iraq higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 23.38,
"edge_pp": 23.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kuwait",
"market_prob_pct": 12.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.54,
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -28.92,
"edge_pp": -28.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Iraq",
"market_prob_pct": 63.16,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Iraq (12.7%).",
"However, Kuwait has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kuwait, Market \u2192 Iraq, while Kuwait odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.67,
"closing_odds": 1.5,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.67,
"entry_odds": 1.5,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 34h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Kuwait together (25.0% drift, score 77) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.44",
"5.82",
"4.20"
],
"display": "7.44 \u2192 4.20 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 34h 37m",
"pick_team": "Kuwait",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.44"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.2,
7.44,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.2",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.44"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Kuwait odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Kuwait",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Kuwait odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Kuwait while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Kuwait",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 4.2,
"pick_team": "Kuwait",
"steam_score": 77,
"steam_team_name": "Kuwait",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "iraq",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Iraq",
"away_team_id": 1567,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1567.webp",
"away_team_name": "Iraq",
"away_team_public_id": "3vblwWhEtG8qsg",
"away_team_slug": "iraq",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1637932,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Kuwait",
"home_team_display_name": "Kuwait",
"home_team_id": 1570,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1570.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kuwait",
"home_team_public_id": "1KnFIi8N82gTZC",
"home_team_slug": "kuwait",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kuwait",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Piala Negara Teluk",
"league_id": 25,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/25.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Negara Teluk",
"league_public_id": "1hZ7by1JlahgNv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:55:00",
"public_id": "1zf0E8mOR1lR0O",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jeddah",
"venue_name": "Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3397,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0982,
"ev": -0.2,
"implied_prob": 0.6316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6316,
"draw": 0.2411,
"home": 0.1273
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.5333
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.275,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": 0.0075,
"implied_prob": 0.2411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6316,
"draw": 0.2411,
"home": 0.1273
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2564
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1299,
"best_odd": 7.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0303,
"ev": 0.1732,
"implied_prob": 0.1273,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6316,
"draw": 0.2411,
"home": 0.1273
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.1577
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.3243,
"ev": -0.4864,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.0422,
"ev": 0.1659,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 7.44,
"edge": 0.2265,
"ev": 1.6853,
"implied_prob": 0.1344,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1978,
"alpha_yes": 0.1438,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1323,
"edge_yes": 0.1323,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1169,
"ev_yes": 0.2263,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0319,
"implied_no": 0.5873,
"implied_yes": 0.4127,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1978,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0265,
"ev": -0.1169,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5625
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1438,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0319,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4303
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5625,
"p_final_yes": 0.4303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2079,
"alpha_under": 0.2287,
"best_over_odd": 2.21,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.135,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0511,
"edge_under": -0.0511,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0652,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0976,
"implied_over": 0.4309,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4314,
"implied_under": 0.5691,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5686,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2079,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4419
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2287,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.0976,
"implied_prob": 0.5686,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.557
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4419,
"p_final_under": 0.557,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.6853,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2263,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2263,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016853,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kuwait at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 12.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kuwait as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kuwait",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Kuwait, but the model still strongly favours Kuwait.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
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"disagreement_level": "strong",
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
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"guard_blocked": true,
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kuwait"
},
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"no": {
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"p_final": 0.4303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0319,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0193,
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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"p_final": 0.4419,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.0976,
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"value_side": "over"
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"edge": 0.0511,
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"side": "over",
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}
},
"match_id": 1637932,
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"action": "bet",
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Iraq",
"home": "Kuwait"
},
"top_pick": {
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"disagreement_label": "Strong",
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"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+23.4 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 1.6851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+168.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637932,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:54:07.449637+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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