AI correctly predicted the Larisa win.
The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Larisa Larisa ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrgos 1968 | 27.1% | 21.5% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.7% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Larisa | 43.8% | 49.8% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Larisa's win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Larisa win 0–4).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Larisa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Larisa attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Larisa higher (49.7% vs model 43.8%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Larisa win 0–4).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pyrgos 1968 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Larisa 43.9%
- xG · Pyrgos 1968 1.12 — Larisa 1.48
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pyrgos 1968 4.25 · Draw 3.19 · Larisa 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Pyrgos 1968 21.5% · Draw 28.7% · Larisa 49.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pyrgos 1968 4.25 · Draw 3.19 · Larisa 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Pyrgos 1968 21.5% · Draw 28.7% · Larisa 49.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Larisa win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Larisa win · Pyrgos 1968 0–4 Larisa
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0412,
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"raw_pct": -4.1,
"text": "-4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Larisa",
"sort_key": 1789.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"alert_team": "Pyrgos 1968",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
"hero_label": "Larisa",
"market_prob_pct": 49.8,
"market_team": "Larisa",
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_team": "Larisa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 81,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0827,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1514,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Larisa at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Larisa as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Larisa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Larisa \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636923 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1439,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.92,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.48,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.48,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.48 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"steam_team": "Pyrgos 1968",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0827,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1514,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Larisa at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Larisa as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Larisa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Larisa \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636923 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1439,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pyrgos 1968 1.12 xG vs Larisa 1.48 \u2192 Larisa 43.8%",
"Market: Larisa ~49.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Pyrgos 1968 \u2193 -16.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Larisa, but sharp money moved toward Pyrgos 1968.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob": 27.07,
"label": "Pyrgos 1968",
"market_prob": 21.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 29.09,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob": 43.84,
"label": "Larisa",
"market_prob": 49.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 53.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.59,
"fair_prob": 46.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.84,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Larisa",
"market_prob_pct": 49.76,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Pyrgos 1968"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Larisa\u0027s win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Larisa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.0,
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pyrgos 1968 1.12 xG vs Larisa 1.48 \u2192 Larisa 43.8%",
"Market: Larisa ~49.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Pyrgos 1968 \u2193 -16.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Larisa, but sharp money moved toward Pyrgos 1968.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
"hero_label": "Larisa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Pyrgos 1968 odds shortened \u2193 -16.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Pyrgos 1968, with odds shortening by 16.0%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Larisa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Pyrgos 1968 \u2014 odds shortened by 16.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Larisa. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Pyrgos 1968, with odds shortening by 16.0%.",
"Buying interest on Pyrgos 1968 \u2014 odds shortened by 16.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Larisa above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Pyrgos 1968 has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 16.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/7) supports the current market view on Pyrgos 1968."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.8 pp (at 43.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Larisa",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Larisa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.53,
"edge_pp": 5.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pyrgos 1968",
"market_prob_pct": 21.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.39,
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.92,
"edge_pp": -5.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.84,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Larisa",
"market_prob_pct": 49.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Pyrgos 1968 \u2014 odds shortened by 16.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Larisa (49.8%).",
"However, Pyrgos 1968 has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.0%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Larisa, Market \u2192 Larisa, Recent sharp money \u2192 Pyrgos 1968.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.35,
"closing_odds": 1.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.35,
"entry_odds": 1.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.9
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books synchronized on Pyrgos 1968 (16.0% steam, score 81) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.60",
"4.20"
],
"display": "5.10 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 45m",
"pick_team": "Pyrgos 1968",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
4.25,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.9 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Pyrgos 1968 \u2193 -16.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Pyrgos 1968",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Pyrgos 1968 \u2193 -16.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Pyrgos 1968 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Pyrgos 1968",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 81,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Pyrgos 1968",
"steam_score": 81,
"steam_team_name": "Pyrgos 1968",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "larisa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Larisa",
"away_team_id": 953,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/953.webp",
"away_team_name": "Larisa",
"away_team_public_id": "4Jt9ySVIB1d5Qu",
"away_team_slug": "larisa",
"country_code": "GR",
"country_display_name": "Greece",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gr.svg",
"country_id": 63,
"country_name": "Greece",
"fixture_id": 1636923,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Greece",
"home_team_display_name": "Pyrgos 1968",
"home_team_id": 26587,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26587.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pyrgos 1968",
"home_team_public_id": "214X4exxv4O1fT",
"home_team_slug": "pyrgos-1968",
"ht.home_team_slug": "pyrgos-1968",
"league_country": "Greece",
"league_country_display": "Greece",
"league_display_name": "Super League 2",
"league_id": 494,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/494.webp",
"league_name": "Super League 2",
"league_public_id": "0QTEK7vqbSsU98",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-21 13:00:00",
"public_id": "0kE3Pq8NFDJok9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5468,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1439,
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4976,
"draw": 0.287,
"home": 0.2154
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"p_final": 0.4653
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2984,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.081,
"implied_prob": 0.287,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4976,
"draw": 0.287,
"home": 0.2154
},
"model_prob": 0.2906,
"p_final": 0.2881
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1833,
"best_odd": 4.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.2154,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4976,
"draw": 0.287,
"home": 0.2154
},
"model_prob": 0.2709,
"p_final": 0.2256
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.105,
"ev": -0.1932,
"implied_prob": 0.5435,
"model_prob": 0.4385
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.2906
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.25,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": 0.1514,
"implied_prob": 0.2353,
"model_prob": 0.2709
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2243,
"alpha_yes": 0.2039,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.02,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0659,
"edge_yes": 0.0659,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1648,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1107,
"ev_yes": 0.0827,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0617,
"implied_no": 0.5299,
"implied_yes": 0.4701,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2243,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5266,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.5126
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4734,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.4862
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5126,
"p_final_yes": 0.4862,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2093,
"alpha_under": 0.2302,
"best_over_odd": 2.18,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": 0.0449,
"edge_under": -0.0449,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0508,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.065,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1028,
"implied_over": 0.4371,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4355,
"implied_under": 0.5629,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5645,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4452
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5538
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4452,
"p_final_under": 0.5538,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0827,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1514,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0827,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0827,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1514,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Larisa at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Larisa as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Larisa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Larisa \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.15 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636923 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.15 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Pyrgos 1968, but the model still strongly favours Larisa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1439,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.536,
"draw_prob": 0.2906,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4385,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.36
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.1439,
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Larisa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.4734,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2243,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5266,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.5126
},
"p_final": 0.4862,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4734,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.4862
}
},
"edge": 0.0659,
"ev": 0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0097,
"market_prob": 0.4355,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2093,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.4355,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4452
},
"p_final": 0.4452,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.065,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2302,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.1028,
"implied_prob": 0.5645,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0449,
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4371,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636923,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0827,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4385,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.2709
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Larisa",
"home": "Pyrgos 1968"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044327,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1439,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4976,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5434782608695652,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1932,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636923,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T12:59:06.319569+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Pyrgos 1968 & Larisa!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Super League 2 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Larisa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Panionios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Marko | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Ellas Syros | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Panthrakikos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Panserraikos | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Kallithea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Apollon Pontou | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | PAOK II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ellas Syros | 4 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Larisa | 4 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | Marko | 3 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Panserraikos | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 6 | Kallithea | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Panionios | 4 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Niki Volos | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Panthrakikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Apollon Pontou | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | PAOK II | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Zakynthos | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 14 | Asteras Tripolis II | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Pyrgos 1968 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
