The model missed the final outcome (Cumbayá win 0–3).
The model had projected El Nacional at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 El Nacional Cumbayá ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Nacional | 40.9% | 26.8% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.2% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Cumbayá | 29.7% | 45.1% | -15.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Cumbayá's win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Cumbayá win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Cumbayá than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned El Nacional; match finished Cumbayá
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on El Nacional by 15.4 percentage points (56.3% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · El Nacional 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Cumbayá 29.6%
- xG · El Nacional 1.42 — Cumbayá 1.18
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · El Nacional 3.42 · Draw 3.25 · Cumbayá 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · El Nacional 26.8% · Draw 28.2% · Cumbayá 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · El Nacional 3.42 · Draw 3.25 · Cumbayá 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · El Nacional 26.8% · Draw 28.2% · Cumbayá 45.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cumbayá win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
8/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cumbayá win · El Nacional 0–3 Cumbayá
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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"value_pct": 40.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
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"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "El Nacional or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "El Nacional or Cumbay\u00e1",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cumbay\u00e1",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "El Nacional or Cumbay\u00e1",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "El Nacional"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 40.2,
"implied_prob": 29.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "El Nacional Win",
"model_prob": 41.0,
"odds": 3.42
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 45.08,
"draw": 28.16,
"home": 26.76
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 23:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-25 23:29:31",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "El Nacional",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.76,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.16,
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"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.08,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.21,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.79,
"gap_pp": -3.99,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.25,
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.256,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0026,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
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"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0315,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.1,
"text": "+3.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0315,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10028.35,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0298,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0298,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "El Nacional",
"sort_key": 5223.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0083,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.5021,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4897
},
"p_final": 0.5103,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0154,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0712,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0712,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5103
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1417,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.2,
"text": "-14.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0117,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0117,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 5209.36,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.39,
"hero_label": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 26.8,
"market_team": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "El Nacional",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4007,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Nacional at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Nacional as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Nacional",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side El Nacional \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636699 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0298,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.39,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "El Nacional",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4007,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Nacional at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Nacional as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Nacional",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side El Nacional \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636699 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0298,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Nacional 1.42 xG vs Cumbay\u00e1 1.18 \u2192 El Nacional 40.9%",
"Market: Cumbay\u00e1 ~26.8% implied",
"Market Steam: El Nacional +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans El Nacional, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.15,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "El Nacional",
"market_prob": 26.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.24,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.39,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"market_prob": 45.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.19,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.19,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.82,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 45.08,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "El Nacional"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cumbay\u00e1\u0027s win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "El Nacional",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: El Nacional 1.42 xG vs Cumbay\u00e1 1.18 \u2192 El Nacional 40.9%",
"Market: Cumbay\u00e1 ~26.8% implied",
"Market Steam: El Nacional +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans El Nacional, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.39,
"hero_label": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, El Nacional has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Cumbay\u00e1 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on El Nacional.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Cumbay\u00e1 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, El Nacional has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on El Nacional."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Cumbay\u00e1 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, El Nacional has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on El Nacional."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cumbay\u00e1 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.15,
"edge_pp": 14.15,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "El Nacional",
"market_prob_pct": 26.76,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.24,
"edge_pp": 1.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -15.39,
"edge_pp": -15.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 45.08,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on El Nacional.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cumbay\u00e1 (26.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 El Nacional, Market \u2192 Cumbay\u00e1, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.26,
"closing_odds": 2.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.26,
"entry_odds": 2.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "El Nacional",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "El Nacional",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cumbaya",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"away_team_id": 16476,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16476.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"away_team_public_id": "3GPX2vI9nuEqL0",
"away_team_slug": "cumbaya",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1636699,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "El Nacional",
"home_team_id": 1150,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1150.webp",
"home_team_name": "El Nacional",
"home_team_public_id": "2cRgh3QeDLFjTz",
"home_team_slug": "el-nacional",
"ht.home_team_slug": "el-nacional",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_id": 243,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/243.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5vQVlffQy0raFb",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 00:00:00",
"public_id": "1LLdWlX568rllW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quito",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3459,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.1932,
"implied_prob": 0.4508,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4508,
"draw": 0.2816,
"home": 0.2676
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3975
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2945,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.2816,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4508,
"draw": 0.2816,
"home": 0.2676
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2852
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2361,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": 0.0298,
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4508,
"draw": 0.2816,
"home": 0.2676
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.3011
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1961,
"ev": -0.398,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.1172,
"ev": 0.4007,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2119,
"alpha_yes": 0.2119,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0382,
"edge_yes": 0.0382,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1417,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1014,
"ev_yes": 0.0117,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0712,
"implied_no": 0.4972,
"implied_yes": 0.5028,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4897
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2119,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0712,
"implied_prob": 0.5021,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5103
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4897,
"p_final_yes": 0.5103,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2111,
"alpha_under": 0.2322,
"best_over_odd": 2.14,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0419,
"edge_under": -0.0419,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0315,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.4401,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4409,
"implied_under": 0.5599,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4495,
"p_final_under": 0.5496,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4007,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0315,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0315,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4007,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates El Nacional at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies El Nacional as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "El Nacional",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side El Nacional \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636699 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced El Nacional, but the model still strongly favours El Nacional.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0298,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0315,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4401,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "El Nacional"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0083,
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"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.835,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1014,
"implied_prob": 0.4979,
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},
"p_final": 0.5103,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0712,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0087,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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},
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},
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"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636699,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0315,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cumbay\u00e1",
"home": "El Nacional"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0298,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2676,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29239766081871343,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4008,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636699,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T23:59:08.991131+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 12 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atlético FC | 22 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | Cuniburo | 22 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 31 |
| 5 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 37 |
| 6 | Cumbayá | 22 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 9 | Santo Domingo | 22 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | El Nacional | 22 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 12 |
| 12 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 15 |
