The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Tigres de Alica at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Tigres de Alica Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres de Alica | 36.1% | 40.0% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.8% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Tritons Vallarta | 34.2% | 29.2% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Tritons Vallarta's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tritons Vallarta.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Tigres de Alica; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tigres de Alica by 5.0 percentage points (31.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tigres de Alica 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Tritons Vallarta 34.2%
- xG · Tigres de Alica 1.32 — Tritons Vallarta 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tigres de Alica 2.22 · Draw 2.89 · Tritons Vallarta 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · Tigres de Alica 40.0% · Draw 30.8% · Tritons Vallarta 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tigres de Alica 2.22 · Draw 2.89 · Tritons Vallarta 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · Tigres de Alica 40.0% · Draw 30.8% · Tritons Vallarta 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Tigres de Alica 1–1 Tritons Vallarta
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8444f505732460baf5ee213b477f5435d3e7cc2db81528125251965a5ebf1576",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Tigres de Alica",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Tigres de Alica"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Tigres de Alica",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0393,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4003,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.22
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.22,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Tigres de Alica Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.5,
"market_odds": 2.22,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -8.9,
"value_pct": -19.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Tigres de Alica or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Tigres de Alica or Tritons Vallarta",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tritons Vallarta",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Tigres de Alica or Tritons Vallarta",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Tigres de Alica"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 4.0,
"implied_prob": 32.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Tritons Vallarta Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.04
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.23,
"draw": 30.75,
"home": 40.03
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 23:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 23:29:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Tigres de Alica",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.03,
"gap_pp": -3.93,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.75,
"gap_pp": -1.08,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.23,
"gap_pp": 5.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.94,
"gap_pp": 7.26,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.06,
"gap_pp": -7.26,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.03,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.89,
"early": 2.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.75,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.23,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.94,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.56,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.06,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1985,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0156,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4665,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"p_final": 0.4821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0628,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1985,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4821
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0736,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0736,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10216.24,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0601,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0782,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.527
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0119,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0831,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0119,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1797.025,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0692,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.9,
"text": "-6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1988,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Tigres de Alica",
"sort_key": 1782.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"alert_team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.01,
"hero_label": "Tritons Vallarta",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"market_team": "Tigres de Alica",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Tigres de Alica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0736,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0736,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tigres de Alica at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tigres de Alica as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tigres de Alica",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1484,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1988,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.01,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"steam_team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0736,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0736,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tigres de Alica at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tigres de Alica as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tigres de Alica",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1484,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1988,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tigres de Alica 1.32 xG vs Tritons Vallarta 1.28 \u2192 Tigres de Alica 36.1%",
"Market: Tigres de Alica ~40.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Tritons Vallarta odds \u2191 +42.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tigres de Alica with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.92,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Tigres de Alica",
"market_prob": 40.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.1,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Tritons Vallarta",
"market_prob": 29.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.2,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.3,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.2,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.7,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Tritons Vallarta",
"market_prob_pct": 29.23,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Tritons Vallarta"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Tritons Vallarta\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tigres de Alica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Tigres de Alica \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tigres de Alica 1.32 xG vs Tritons Vallarta 1.28 \u2192 Tigres de Alica 36.1%",
"Market: Tigres de Alica ~40.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Tritons Vallarta odds \u2191 +42.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tigres de Alica with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.01,
"hero_label": "Tritons Vallarta",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Tritons Vallarta odds lengthened \u2191 +42.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tritons Vallarta.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tritons Vallarta.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tritons Vallarta.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tritons Vallarta."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Tritons Vallarta.",
"Recent line movement on Tritons Vallarta (\u2191 +42.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Tritons Vallarta."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Tritons Vallarta",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.0,
"lead": "The model rates Tritons Vallarta considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.92,
"edge_pp": -3.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tigres de Alica",
"market_prob_pct": 40.03,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.1,
"edge_pp": -1.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.75,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.01,
"edge_pp": 5.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Tritons Vallarta",
"market_prob_pct": 29.23,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Tritons Vallarta.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tigres de Alica (40.0%).",
"However, Tritons Vallarta has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +42.9%, 6/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Tigres de Alica \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.89,
"closing_odds": 3.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.89,
"entry_odds": 3.04,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +101.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 101.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +97.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 97.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +57.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 57.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +53.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 53.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 42.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/8 books lengthened Tritons Vallarta together (42.9% drift, score 82) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.02",
"3.04"
],
"display": "5.43 \u2192 2.69 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 59m",
"pick_team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.43"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.69"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.04,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,13.8 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.04"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Tritons Vallarta odds \u2191 +42.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Tritons Vallarta odds \u2191 +42.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Tritons Vallarta",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_team_name": "Tritons Vallarta",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tritons-vallarta",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Tritons Vallarta",
"away_team_id": 17790,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17790.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tritons Vallarta",
"away_team_public_id": "1Eng05WFkztxg2",
"away_team_slug": "tritons-vallarta",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1635973,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Tigres de Alica",
"home_team_id": 24952,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24952.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tigres de Alica",
"home_team_public_id": "5M3RSMXny6fIpG",
"home_team_slug": "tigres-de-alica",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tigres-de-alica",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Primera Premier Mexico",
"league_id": 1242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1242.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Premier Mexico",
"league_public_id": "5nWmYlLYwv9X6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 00:00:00",
"public_id": "5pZLyMUK1yWum1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2775,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": -0.0692,
"implied_prob": 0.2923,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2923,
"draw": 0.3075,
"home": 0.4003
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3062
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4427,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.3075,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2923,
"draw": 0.3075,
"home": 0.4003
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3027
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4235,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1484,
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2923,
"draw": 0.3075,
"home": 0.4003
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3836
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": 0.0409,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0493,
"ev": -0.1426,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0895,
"ev": -0.1987,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2184,
"alpha_yes": 0.1985,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.97,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.072,
"edge_yes": 0.072,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1582,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1196,
"ev_yes": 0.0736,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.06,
"implied_no": 0.527,
"implied_yes": 0.473,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1985,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4821
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5164,
"p_final_yes": 0.4821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.221,
"alpha_under": 0.2431,
"best_over_odd": 2.05,
"best_under_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.73,
"edge_over": 0.0176,
"edge_under": -0.0176,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0119,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0782,
"ev_under": -0.0831,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0883,
"implied_over": 0.4644,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4701,
"implied_under": 0.5356,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5299,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.527
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4727,
"p_final_under": 0.527,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0736,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0736,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0736,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0736,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0736,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tigres de Alica at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tigres de Alica as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tigres de Alica",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tigres de Alica).",
"Decision strength: 5.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1484,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1988,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1484,
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tigres de Alica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1985,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.4665,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2184,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.5335,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5164
},
"p_final": 0.4821,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1985,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4821
}
},
"edge": 0.072,
"ev": 0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0782,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.527
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0176,
"ev": -0.0119,
"implied_prob": 0.4644,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1635973,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0736,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tritons Vallarta",
"home": "Tigres de Alica"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040112,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1484,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4003,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1988,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635973,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T01:05:24.976885+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Tigres de Alica & Tritons Vallarta!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera Premier Mexico — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Celaya | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Racing de Veracruz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Zacatepec 1948 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Pioneros de Cancún | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Reboceros La Piedad | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Los Cabos United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Tigres de Alica | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Montañeses | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Deportiva Venados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Tapachula | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Tritons Vallarta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Chapulineros | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Lobos ULMX | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Cordobés | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | H2O Purepechas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz | 4 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Irapuato | 5 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | Celaya | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Montañeses | 5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Reboceros La Piedad | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Tigres de Alica | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Los Cabos United | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Lobos ULMX | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 13 | Chapulineros | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 14 | Tapachula | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Tritons Vallarta | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Cordobés | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | H2O Purepechas | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
