Audit Ramalan: Petare FC vs Bolívar Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Sep 06, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 71%

The model missed the final outcome (Bolívar win 1–2).

The model had projected Petare FC at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan C

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Petare FC Bolívar ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Bolívar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Bolívar +5.6 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Petare FC 40.9% 45.5% -4.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 30.4% -1.0 pp Aligned
Bolívar 29.7% 24.1% +5.6 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Bolívar's win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Bolívar win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Bolívar.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Petare FC; match finished Bolívar
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Petare FC by 5.6 percentage points (35.3% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Petare FC 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Bolívar 29.6%
    • xG · Petare FC 1.42 — Bolívar 1.18
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Petare FC 1.98 · Draw 2.96 · Bolívar 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Petare FC 45.5% · Draw 30.4% · Bolívar 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Petare FC 1.98 · Draw 2.96 · Bolívar 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Petare FC 45.5% · Draw 30.4% · Bolívar 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bolívar win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Observe
Keputusan Sejarah No Primary Bet
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6373337

Closing Odds 3.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bolívar win · Petare FC 1–2 Bolívar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        "steam_score": null,
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      },
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          "decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
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            "action_label": "Action",
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            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petare FC at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Petare FC as the value side (41.0%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
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              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 4.5,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Petare FC",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "84 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "88 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC).",
            "Decision strength: 7.9/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 84,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.1498,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-15.0%",
            "consensus_odds": 1.98,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.4546,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4096,
            "raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 5.2,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.24
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "3/3",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 22.2,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 84,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 5.56,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 5.56,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.18,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 5.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.42,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.42,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Petare FC",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 88,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 77,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 40,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 77,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 5.6,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 5.6,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.9,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 88,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petare FC at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Petare FC as the value side (41.0%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 4.5,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Petare FC",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "84 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "88 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC).",
              "Decision strength: 7.9/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 84,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.1498,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-15.0%",
              "consensus_odds": 1.98,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.4546,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4096,
              "raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 5.2,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.24
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Petare FC 1.42 xG vs Bol\u00edvar 1.18 \u2192 Petare FC 40.9%",
            "Market: Petare FC ~45.5% implied",
            "Market Steam: Petare FC +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Petare FC with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.55,
          "fair_prob": 40.91,
          "label": "Petare FC",
          "market_prob": 45.46,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.01,
          "fair_prob": 29.4,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 30.41,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.56,
          "fair_prob": 29.69,
          "label": "Bol\u00edvar",
          "market_prob": 24.13,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 7.8,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 40.4,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.8,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 59.6,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.57,
          "fair_prob": 54.1,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 45.53,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.57,
          "fair_prob": 45.9,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 54.47,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 5.56,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Bol\u00edvar",
        "market_prob_pct": 24.13,
        "status": "mild_value",
        "steam_team_name": "Petare FC"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Bol\u00edvar\u0027s win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "mild_value",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.56,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Petare FC",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 45.5,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -4.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -4.6,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 84,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Petare FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 88,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 77,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 40,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 77,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Petare FC 1.42 xG vs Bol\u00edvar 1.18 \u2192 Petare FC 40.9%",
              "Market: Petare FC ~45.5% implied",
              "Market Steam: Petare FC +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Petare FC with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 5.56,
        "hero_label": "Bol\u00edvar",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Bol\u00edvar.",
          "note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Bol\u00edvar.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Bol\u00edvar."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Bol\u00edvar.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 5.56,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "moderate",
          "largest_gap_label": "Bol\u00edvar",
          "largest_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "lead": "The model rates Bol\u00edvar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "moderate",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "title": "Moderate Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -4.55,
            "edge_pp": -4.55,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Petare FC",
            "market_prob_pct": 45.46,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -1.01,
            "edge_pp": -1.01,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.41,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 5.56,
            "edge_pp": 5.56,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Bol\u00edvar",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.13,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "mild_value",
        "status_label": "Mild Value",
        "steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Bol\u00edvar.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Petare FC (45.5%).",
          "Petare FC \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 26.81,
        "closing_odds": 3.73,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 26.81,
        "entry_odds": 3.73,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/3",
        "current_odds": 1.85,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.85,
        "pick_team": "Petare FC",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_team_name": "Petare FC",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Bol\u00edvar",
      "away_team_id": 21231,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21231.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bol\u00edvar",
      "away_team_public_id": "5fTc41s9UBODYp",
      "away_team_slug": "bolivar-21231",
      "country_code": "VE",
      "country_display_name": "Venezuela",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ve.svg",
      "country_id": 165,
      "country_name": "Venezuela",
      "fixture_id": 1635919,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Venezuela",
      "home_team_display_name": "Petare FC",
      "home_team_id": 2853,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2853.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Petare FC",
      "home_team_public_id": "2P35SGOvR7VejW",
      "home_team_slug": "petare-fc",
      "league_country": "Venezuela",
      "league_country_display": "Venezuela",
      "league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n Venezuela",
      "league_id": 300,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/300.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n Venezuela",
      "league_public_id": "1DKuQ4FtczXxFC",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-06 19:30:00",
      "public_id": "4on7GXVqmtMnlC",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2752,
            "best_odd": 3.73,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0152,
            "ev": -0.0432,
            "implied_prob": 0.2413,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2413,
              "draw": 0.3041,
              "home": 0.4546
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2565
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4431,
            "best_odd": 2.96,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0045,
            "ev": -0.1132,
            "implied_prob": 0.3041,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2413,
              "draw": 0.3041,
              "home": 0.4546
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2939,
            "p_final": 0.2996
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5595,
            "best_odd": 1.98,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0252,
            "ev": -0.1498,
            "implied_prob": 0.4546,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2413,
              "draw": 0.3041,
              "home": 0.4546
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4096,
            "p_final": 0.4294
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 3.73,
            "edge": 0.0284,
            "ev": 0.1061,
            "implied_prob": 0.2681,
            "model_prob": 0.2965
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 2.96,
            "edge": -0.0439,
            "ev": -0.13,
            "implied_prob": 0.3378,
            "model_prob": 0.2939
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.98,
            "edge": -0.0955,
            "ev": -0.1891,
            "implied_prob": 0.5051,
            "model_prob": 0.4096
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.151,
          "alpha_yes": 0.1372,
          "best_no_odd": 1.69,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.01,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0857,
          "edge_yes": 0.0857,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2243,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1066,
          "ev_yes": 0.0874,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0612,
          "implied_no": 0.5447,
          "implied_yes": 0.4553,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 2,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.151,
              "best_odd": 1.68,
              "edge": -0.0129,
              "ev": -0.1066,
              "implied_prob": 0.5447,
              "model_prob": 0.459,
              "p_final": 0.5318
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1372,
              "best_odd": 2.01,
              "edge": 0.0118,
              "ev": -0.0612,
              "implied_prob": 0.4553,
              "model_prob": 0.541,
              "p_final": 0.467
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "p_final_no": 0.5318,
          "p_final_yes": 0.467,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1594,
          "alpha_under": 0.2192,
          "best_over_odd": 2.35,
          "best_under_odd": 1.57,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.27,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.55,
          "edge_over": 0.078,
          "edge_under": -0.078,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1327,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0513,
          "ev_under": -0.1867,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1048,
          "implied_over": 0.404,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.4058,
          "implied_under": 0.596,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.5942,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 3,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1594,
              "best_odd": 2.27,
              "edge": 0.0122,
              "ev": -0.0513,
              "implied_prob": 0.4058,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4179
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2192,
              "best_odd": 1.55,
              "edge": -0.0167,
              "ev": -0.1048,
              "implied_prob": 0.5942,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5775
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 3,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.4179,
          "p_final_under": 0.5775,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1327,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.9,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.9,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.9
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 5.6,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.1327,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.1327,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.9,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 88,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Petare FC at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 45.5%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Petare FC as the value side (41.0%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 4.5,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Petare FC",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "84 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "88 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+13.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Petare FC).",
          "Decision strength: 7.9/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 84,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.1498,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-15.0%",
          "consensus_odds": 1.98,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.4546,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4096,
          "raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 5.2,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.24
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
          "draw_prob": 0.2939,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.24
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 1.98,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0252,
          "ev": -0.1498,
          "implied_prob": 0.4546,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4096,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Petare FC"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1372,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.01,
            "edge": 0.0118,
            "market_prob": 0.4553,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.541,
            "n_bookmakers": 2,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.151,
              "best_odd": 1.68,
              "edge": -0.0129,
              "ev": -0.1066,
              "implied_prob": 0.5447,
              "model_prob": 0.459,
              "p_final": 0.5318
            },
            "p_final": 0.467,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0612,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1372,
              "best_odd": 2.01,
              "edge": 0.0118,
              "ev": -0.0612,
              "implied_prob": 0.4553,
              "model_prob": 0.541,
              "p_final": 0.467
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0857,
          "ev": 0.0874,
          "implied_prob": 0.4553,
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1594,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.27,
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "market_prob": 0.4058,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 3,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1594,
              "best_odd": 2.27,
              "edge": 0.0122,
              "ev": -0.0513,
              "implied_prob": 0.4058,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4179
            },
            "p_final": 0.4179,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2192,
              "best_odd": 1.55,
              "edge": -0.0167,
              "ev": -0.1048,
              "implied_prob": 0.5942,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5775
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.078,
          "ev": 0.1327,
          "implied_prob": 0.404,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1635919,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1327,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2965,
        "draw": 0.2939,
        "home": 0.4096
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0874,
        "implied_prob": 0.4553,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.541,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0874,
          "implied_prob": 0.4553,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bol\u00edvar",
        "home": "Petare FC"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.044773,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1327,
        "implied_prob": 0.404,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.1498,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-15.0%",
        "consensus_odds": 1.98,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.4546,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4096,
        "raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.5050505050505051,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.189,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1635919,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:29:32.998048+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Segunda División Venezuela Segunda División Venezuela — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Deportivo Lara 27 18 6 3 60
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 14 8 5 50
3 Urena SC 28 12 9 7 45
4 Yaracuyanos FC 27 11 7 9 40
5 Zamora FC B 27 11 7 9 40
6 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 9 7 12 34
7 Puerto Cabello II 28 8 7 13 31
8 Club Atletico Barinas 28 9 4 15 31
9 Real Frontera 28 3 3 22 12
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Club Atletico Barinas 28 49 59 -10 31
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 48 27 +21 50
3 Deportivo Lara 27 46 20 +26 60
4 Zamora FC B 27 42 36 +6 40
5 Urena SC 28 41 34 +7 45
6 Puerto Cabello II 28 36 40 -4 31
7 Yaracuyanos FC 27 34 27 +7 40
8 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 32 45 -13 34
9 Real Frontera 28 22 62 -40 12