The model missed the final outcome (Real Madrid win 2–1).
The model had projected Inter Milan at 40.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Inter Milan Real Madrid ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 35.9% | 60.5% | -24.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.1% | 21.5% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Inter Milan | 40.0% | 17.9% | +22.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Real Madrid's win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.9%, a difference of 24.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Real Madrid win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.62) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Inter Milan; match finished Real Madrid
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Inter Milan by 24.6 percentage points (64.6% vs model 40.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Madrid 36.0% · Draw 24.1% · Inter Milan 40.0%
- xG · Real Madrid 1.76 — Inter Milan 1.86
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid 1.62 · Draw 4.39 · Inter Milan 5.23
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid 59.6% · Draw 22.0% · Inter Milan 18.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid 1.60 · Draw 4.50 · Inter Milan 5.40
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid 60.5% · Draw 21.5% · Inter Milan 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 08, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Madrid win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (25 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Real Madrid win · Real Madrid 2–1 Inter Milan
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Real Madrid or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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],
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 84.4,
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"home_played": 0,
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"no_prob": 28.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 71.0,
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"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.86,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 2,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
"away": 3,
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Real Madrid or Draw",
"prob": 60.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Real Madrid or Inter Milan",
"prob": 75.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Inter Milan",
"prob": 64.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Real Madrid or Inter Milan",
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},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.0,
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"lean_label": "Inter Milan"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.62,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
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"over_prob": 70.1,
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"total_expected": 3.62,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"model_prob": 40.0,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 17.94,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 18:59:45",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 18:29:54",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Real Madrid",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.48,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.52,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.94,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"lean_card": {
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.76,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 5.5,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Inter Milan",
"edge": 21.8,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 40.0
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"alpha": 0.3541,
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"edge": 0.0293,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2399,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -24.0,
"text": "-24.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0792,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.9,
"text": "+7.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0792,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 28.9,
"sort_key": 10221.28,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 71.0
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.4,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1279,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 12.8,
"text": "+12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+12.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Inter Milan",
"sort_key": 10115.11,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3801,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.6611,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.701,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3801,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.6611,
"model_prob": 0.701,
"p_final": 0.6763
},
"p_final": 0.6763,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0046,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0397,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0918,
"implied_prob": 0.3389,
"model_prob": 0.299,
"p_final": 0.3279
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0305,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1389,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0305,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 70.1,
"sort_key": 10027.45,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 29.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"alert_team": "Inter Milan",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 24.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.62,
"hero_label": "Real Madrid",
"market_prob_pct": 17.9,
"market_team": "Real Madrid",
"model_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_team": "Inter Milan",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011585000000000002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter Milan at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter Milan as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Milan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.4,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18518518518518517,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "9/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6428571428571429,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (25 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 12.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 24.62,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 24.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.86,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 38.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.76,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.86,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.76 \u00b7 Away xG 1.86 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +38%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"steam_team": "Inter Milan",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011585000000000002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter Milan at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter Milan as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Milan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.4,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18518518518518517,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Madrid 1.76 xG vs Inter Milan 1.86 \u2192 Inter Milan 40.0%",
"Market: Real Madrid ~17.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Inter Milan \u2193 -9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Inter Milan, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -24.62,
"fair_prob": 35.92,
"label": "Real Madrid",
"market_prob": 60.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"fair_prob": 24.12,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.02,
"fair_prob": 39.96,
"label": "Inter Milan",
"market_prob": 17.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob": 70.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.07,
"fair_prob": 29.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.07,
"fair_prob": 71.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob": 28.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -24.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.92,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Real Madrid",
"market_prob_pct": 60.54,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Inter Milan"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Real Madrid\u0027s win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.9%, a difference of 24.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 24.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Inter Milanpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Inter Milan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 17.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Inter Milan \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.1 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Real Madrid 1.76 xG vs Inter Milan 1.86 \u2192 Inter Milan 40.0%",
"Market: Real Madrid ~17.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Inter Milan \u2193 -9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Inter Milan, but market pricing diverges by 25 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -24.62,
"hero_label": "Real Madrid",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Inter Milan odds shortened \u2193 -9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 24.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.0 pp (at 40.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.0,
"max_prob_pct": 40.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Real Madrid",
"largest_gap_pp": -24.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Real Madrid higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 24.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -24.62,
"edge_pp": -24.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.92,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Real Madrid",
"market_prob_pct": 60.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.6,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.12,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 22.02,
"edge_pp": 22.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Inter Milan",
"market_prob_pct": 17.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Real Madrid (17.9%).",
"However, Inter Milan has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.1%, 9/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Inter Milan, Market \u2192 Real Madrid, Recent sharp money \u2192 Inter Milan.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Inter Milanpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 62.5,
"closing_odds": 1.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 62.5,
"entry_odds": 1.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Inter Milan (9.1%, 9/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.50",
"5.25",
"5.00"
],
"display": "5.53 \u2192 4.40 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 28m",
"pick_team": "Inter Milan",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.53"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
5.4,
5.23,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,3.6 37.3,9.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/14 sportsbooks on Inter Milan",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Inter Milan",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Inter Milan",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/14",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Inter Milan",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "Inter Milan",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 24.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "inter",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Inter Milan",
"away_team_id": 505,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/505.webp",
"away_team_name": "Inter Milan",
"away_team_public_id": "0FEGMIGepJgCO9",
"away_team_slug": "inter",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1635714,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Real Madrid",
"home_team_id": 541,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/541.webp",
"home_team_name": "Real Madrid",
"home_team_public_id": "5CL0dYQqjxlYKe",
"home_team_slug": "real-madrid",
"ht.home_team_slug": "real-madrid",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Juara-Juara UEFA",
"league_id": 2,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/2.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Juara-Juara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "3xbgzqzSwmFyoE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 19:00:00",
"public_id": "29Pn2WqaptCngt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Madrid",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"best_odd": 5.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": 0.1279,
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1794,
"draw": 0.2152,
"home": 0.6054
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.2089
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 4.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0049,
"ev": -0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.2152,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1794,
"draw": 0.2152,
"home": 0.6054
},
"model_prob": 0.2408,
"p_final": 0.2202
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3787,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0931,
"ev": -0.1804,
"implied_prob": 0.6054,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1794,
"draw": 0.2152,
"home": 0.6054
},
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"p_final": 0.5123
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.4,
"edge": 0.2145,
"ev": 1.1585,
"implied_prob": 0.1852,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.5,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": 0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.2222,
"model_prob": 0.2408
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.2655,
"ev": -0.4248,
"implied_prob": 0.625,
"model_prob": 0.3595
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2571,
"alpha_yes": 0.3541,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0817,
"edge_yes": 0.0807,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2399,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1221,
"ev_yes": 0.0792,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0249,
"implied_no": 0.3707,
"implied_yes": 0.6293,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2571,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.289,
"p_final": 0.3511
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3541,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": -0.0249,
"implied_prob": 0.6274,
"model_prob": 0.71,
"p_final": 0.6566
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.3511,
"p_final_yes": 0.6566,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3801,
"alpha_under": 0.2764,
"best_over_odd": 1.47,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.77,
"edge_over": 0.0407,
"edge_under": -0.0407,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0305,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0397,
"ev_under": -0.1389,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0918,
"implied_over": 0.6603,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6611,
"implied_under": 0.3397,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3389,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3801,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.6611,
"model_prob": 0.701,
"p_final": 0.6763
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0918,
"implied_prob": 0.3389,
"model_prob": 0.299,
"p_final": 0.3279
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6763,
"p_final_under": 0.3279,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.62,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.1585,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1279,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 24.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.011585000000000002,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Inter Milan at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Inter Milan as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Milan",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "39 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Inter Milan), but pricing still diverges by 24.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.4,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18518518518518517,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 37.8,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.71,
"draw_prob": 0.2408,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.701,
"total_xg": 3.62,
"under_prob": 0.299,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.4,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": 0.1279,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Inter Milan"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3541,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.485,
"edge": 0.0293,
"market_prob": 0.6274,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.71,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2571,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.289,
"p_final": 0.3511
},
"p_final": 0.6566,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0249,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3541,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": -0.0249,
"implied_prob": 0.6274,
"model_prob": 0.71,
"p_final": 0.6566
}
},
"edge": 0.0807,
"ev": 0.0792,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6293,
"model_prob": 0.71,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3801,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"market_prob": 0.6611,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.701,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3801,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.6611,
"model_prob": 0.701,
"p_final": 0.6763
},
"p_final": 0.6763,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0397,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.0918,
"implied_prob": 0.3389,
"model_prob": 0.299,
"p_final": 0.3279
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0407,
"ev": 0.0305,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6603,
"model_prob": 0.701,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1635714,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1279,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2408,
"home": 0.3595
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Inter Milan",
"home": "Real Madrid"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.064667,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0792,
"implied_prob": 0.6293,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.71,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1279,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.8%",
"consensus_odds": 5.4,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1794,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18518518518518517,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.1584,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+115.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635714,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T18:59:47.327741+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Juara-Juara UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Lens | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Lille | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Inter Milan | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | +1.7 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 6 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 9 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 11 | Lille | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 12 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 13 | Inter Milan | 1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 1 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 15 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -1.7 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Porto | 1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 18 | Bayern München | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 19 | Barcelona | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Como | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Lens | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | Arsenal | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 26 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 27 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 29 | Slavia Praha | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Napoli | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Viking | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
