The model missed the final outcome (Mamelodi Sundowns win 2–1).
The model had projected Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Al-Ahli Jeddah Mamelodi Sundowns ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 33.3% | 29.7% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.8% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 37.1% | 44.5% | -7.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Al-Ahli Jeddah's win probability at 44.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Mamelodi Sundowns win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al-Ahli Jeddah by 7.5 percentage points (44.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mamelodi Sundowns 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 37.0%
- xG · Mamelodi Sundowns 1.26 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mamelodi Sundowns 3.19 · Draw 3.68 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Mamelodi Sundowns 29.7% · Draw 25.8% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 44.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mamelodi Sundowns 3.19 · Draw 3.68 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Mamelodi Sundowns 29.7% · Draw 25.8% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 44.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mamelodi Sundowns win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mamelodi Sundowns win · Mamelodi Sundowns 2–1 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1154,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
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"show_primary_label": true,
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"sort_key": 1797.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
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"hero_edge_pp": -7.45,
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"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
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"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al-Ahli Jeddah as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1154,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.45,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al-Ahli Jeddah as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1154,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mamelodi Sundowns 1.26 xG vs Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34 \u2192 Al-Ahli Jeddah 37.1%",
"Market: Al-Ahli Jeddah ~44.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Mamelodi Sundowns +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al-Ahli Jeddah with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"market_prob": 29.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.87,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"market_prob": 44.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.83,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.83,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.4,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"market_prob_pct": 44.51,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mamelodi Sundowns"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Al-Ahli Jeddah\u0027s win probability at 44.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Al-Ahli Jeddah \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mamelodi Sundowns 1.26 xG vs Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.34 \u2192 Al-Ahli Jeddah 37.1%",
"Market: Al-Ahli Jeddah ~44.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Mamelodi Sundowns +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al-Ahli Jeddah with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.45,
"hero_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Mamelodi Sundowns has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Mamelodi Sundowns.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Mamelodi Sundowns has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Mamelodi Sundowns."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Al-Ahli Jeddah above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Mamelodi Sundowns has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Mamelodi Sundowns."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Al-Ahli Jeddah higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.59,
"edge_pp": 3.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"market_prob_pct": 29.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.87,
"edge_pp": 3.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.76,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.45,
"edge_pp": -7.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"market_prob_pct": 44.51,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Mamelodi Sundowns.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al-Ahli Jeddah (44.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Al-Ahli Jeddah, Market \u2192 Al-Ahli Jeddah, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "al-ahli-jeddah",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"away_team_id": 2929,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2929.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"away_team_public_id": "1r6oMV4FLIDpUz",
"away_team_slug": "al-ahli-jeddah",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1635602,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "South-Africa",
"home_team_display_name": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"home_team_id": 2699,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2699.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mamelodi Sundowns",
"home_team_public_id": "1hfthc607XzUJt",
"home_team_slug": "mamelodi-sundowns",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mamelodi-sundowns",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Piala Antara Benua FIFA",
"league_id": 1168,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1168.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Antara Benua FIFA",
"league_public_id": "4SNUzF4RN1fwEY",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "0mHhviMoPg9YE0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Pretoria",
"venue_name": "Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3996,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4451,
"draw": 0.2576,
"home": 0.2972
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4153
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2827,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2576,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4451,
"draw": 0.2576,
"home": 0.2972
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2685
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2837,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.2972,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4451,
"draw": 0.2576,
"home": 0.2972
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3075
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.099,
"ev": -0.2108,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": 0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1627,
"alpha_yes": 0.2236,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.064,
"edge_yes": -0.064,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.092,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0492,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0958,
"implied_no": 0.391,
"implied_yes": 0.609,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0144,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.6093,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5949
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4012,
"p_final_yes": 0.5949,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2118,
"alpha_under": 0.154,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.22,
"edge_over": -0.0983,
"edge_under": 0.0983,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0964,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0306,
"implied_over": 0.5803,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5781,
"implied_under": 0.4197,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4219,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5781,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.4219,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4367
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5578,
"p_final_under": 0.4367,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al-Ahli Jeddah as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al-Ahli Jeddah).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1154,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.3907,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1627,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"p_final": 0.4012,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0492,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2236,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0144,
"ev": -0.0958,
"implied_prob": 0.6093,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5949
}
},
"edge": 0.064,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.4219,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5781,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5578
},
"p_final": 0.4367,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0306,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.4219,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4367
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0983,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4197,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635602,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
"home": "Mamelodi Sundowns"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4197,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1154,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2108,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-21.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635602,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:04:41.512826+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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