The model missed the final outcome (Aston Villa win 1–3).
The model had projected Coventry City at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Coventry City Aston Villa ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 37.5% | 30.7% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Aston Villa | 32.9% | 44.1% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Aston Villa's win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Aston Villa win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Coventry City by 11.3 percentage points (48.8% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Coventry City 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Aston Villa 32.9%
- xG · Coventry City 1.35 — Aston Villa 1.25
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Coventry City 3.13 · Draw 3.82 · Aston Villa 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Coventry City 30.7% · Draw 25.2% · Aston Villa 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Coventry City 3.13 · Draw 3.82 · Aston Villa 2.18
- Implied 1X2 · Coventry City 30.7% · Draw 25.2% · Aston Villa 44.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aston Villa win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
15/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.18
AI Fair Odds
1.93
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Aston Villa win · Coventry City 1–3 Aston Villa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 51.8%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
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"percent_away": "33%",
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 0,
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"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Coventry City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"model_prob": 37.6,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.11,
"draw": 25.17,
"home": 30.72
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 19:01:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 18:31:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Coventry City",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.17,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2691,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3769,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
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"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.033,
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},
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"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0179,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10176.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0192,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0192,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Coventry City",
"sort_key": 5215.36,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"alert_team": "Coventry City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.26,
"hero_label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 30.7,
"market_team": "Aston Villa",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Coventry City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Coventry City at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Coventry City as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Coventry City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4166666666666667,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.26,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"steam_team": "Coventry City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Coventry City at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Coventry City as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Coventry City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Coventry City 1.35 xG vs Aston Villa 1.25 \u2192 Coventry City 37.5%",
"Market: Aston Villa ~30.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Coventry City odds \u2191 +14.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Coventry City, but the market has moved away from Coventry City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Coventry City",
"market_prob": 30.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.26,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob": 44.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.07,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.07,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Coventry City"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Aston Villa\u0027s win probability at 44.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Coventry City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Coventry City 1.35 xG vs Aston Villa 1.25 \u2192 Coventry City 37.5%",
"Market: Aston Villa ~30.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Coventry City odds \u2191 +14.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Coventry City, but the market has moved away from Coventry City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.26,
"hero_label": "Aston Villa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Coventry City odds lengthened \u2191 +14.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Coventry City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Coventry City \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Aston Villa than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Coventry City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Coventry City \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Aston Villa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Coventry City has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Aston Villa",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Aston Villa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.82,
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Coventry City",
"market_prob_pct": 30.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.44,
"edge_pp": 4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.26,
"edge_pp": -11.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Aston Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 44.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Coventry City \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Aston Villa (30.7%).",
"However, Coventry City has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.6%, 5/12) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Coventry City, Market \u2192 Aston Villa, while Coventry City odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.87,
"closing_odds": 2.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.87,
"entry_odds": 2.18,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Coventry City (14.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.09",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.77 \u2192 3.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 41m",
"pick_team": "Coventry City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.13,
3.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,7.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/12 sportsbooks on Coventry City",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Coventry City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved away from Coventry City while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Coventry City",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/12",
"current_odds": 3.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.6%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Coventry City",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Coventry City",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "aston-villa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Aston Villa",
"away_team_id": 66,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/66.webp",
"away_team_name": "Aston Villa",
"away_team_public_id": "2OA8mIluTqIdtx",
"away_team_slug": "aston-villa",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1635557,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Coventry City",
"home_team_id": 1346,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1346.webp",
"home_team_name": "Coventry City",
"home_team_public_id": "2gTWKXxQ6pHNJf",
"home_team_slug": "coventry",
"ht.home_team_slug": "coventry",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Piala Liga Inggeris",
"league_id": 48,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/48.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Liga Inggeris",
"league_public_id": "47VEbILi7ey6ON",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 19:00:00",
"public_id": "441CuRLniiBYrf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Coventry City",
"venue_name": "Coventry City Building Society Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3741,
"best_odd": 2.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2517,
"home": 0.3072
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.399
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2802,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": 0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.2517,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2517,
"home": 0.3072
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.264
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2692,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4411,
"draw": 0.2517,
"home": 0.3072
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3256
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.18,
"edge": -0.13,
"ev": -0.2834,
"implied_prob": 0.4587,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0339,
"ev": 0.1293,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": 0.0562,
"ev": 0.1758,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1669,
"alpha_yes": 0.2294,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0707,
"edge_yes": -0.0707,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.033,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0922,
"implied_no": 0.3843,
"implied_yes": 0.6157,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3899
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.6231,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6052
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.3899,
"p_final_yes": 0.6052,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2143,
"alpha_under": 0.1558,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.36,
"edge_over": -0.1048,
"edge_under": 0.1048,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0932,
"ev_under": 0.2691,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0106,
"implied_over": 0.5868,
"implied_over_mf": 0.599,
"implied_under": 0.4132,
"implied_under_mf": 0.401,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.0932,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5739
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0106,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4192
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5739,
"p_final_under": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2691,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2691,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Coventry City at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Coventry City as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Coventry City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Coventry City, but the model still strongly favours Coventry City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Coventry City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3769,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3899
},
"p_final": 0.3899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.033,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2294,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.6231,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6052
}
},
"edge": 0.0707,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.401,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2143,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0251,
"ev": -0.0932,
"implied_prob": 0.599,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5739
},
"p_final": 0.4192,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0106,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1558,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0106,
"implied_prob": 0.401,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4192
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1048,
"ev": 0.2691,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635557,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2691,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Aston Villa",
"home": "Coventry City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.097576,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2691,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0192,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3072,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3194888178913738,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1759,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635557,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T19:01:05.917956+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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