The model missed the final outcome (UPDF win 1–0).
The model had projected Maroons at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Maroons UPDF ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPDF | 31.5% | 40.5% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.2% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Maroons | 39.0% | 28.3% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Maroons's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.3%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah UPDF win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Maroons.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Maroons by 10.7 percentage points (28.3% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · UPDF 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Maroons 39.0%
- xG · UPDF 1.22 — Maroons 1.38
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · UPDF 2.22 · Draw 2.88 · Maroons 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · UPDF 40.5% · Draw 31.2% · Maroons 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · UPDF 2.22 · Draw 2.88 · Maroons 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · UPDF 40.5% · Draw 31.2% · Maroons 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result UPDF win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.18
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
UPDF win · UPDF 1–0 Maroons
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
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"options": [
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{
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.22,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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},
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"text": "+15.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-19.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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}
},
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},
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.088,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10079.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"consensus_odds": 3.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0152,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.5,
"text": "-1.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0152,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.5,
"text": "-1.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Maroons",
"sort_key": 1796.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.69,
"hero_label": "Maroons",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"market_team": "UPDF",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Maroons",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2391,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maroons at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maroons as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maroons",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Maroons \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635266 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0152,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31446540880503143,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.69,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "UPDF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2391,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maroons at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maroons as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maroons",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Maroons \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635266 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0152,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31446540880503143,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UPDF 1.22 xG vs Maroons 1.38 \u2192 Maroons 39.0%",
"Market: UPDF ~28.3% implied",
"Market Steam: UPDF +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maroons with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.02,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "UPDF",
"market_prob": 40.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.68,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.69,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Maroons",
"market_prob": 28.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.52,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.52,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Maroons",
"market_prob_pct": 28.28,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "UPDF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Maroons\u0027s win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.3%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Maroons",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 16,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: UPDF 1.22 xG vs Maroons 1.38 \u2192 Maroons 39.0%",
"Market: UPDF ~28.3% implied",
"Market Steam: UPDF +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Maroons with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.69,
"hero_label": "Maroons",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Maroons.",
"note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Maroons.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Maroons."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Maroons more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Maroons",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.7,
"lead": "The model rates Maroons considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.02,
"edge_pp": -9.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UPDF",
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.68,
"edge_pp": -1.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.69,
"edge_pp": 10.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Maroons",
"market_prob_pct": 28.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate is materially higher than current market pricing on Maroons.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers UPDF (28.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Maroons, Market \u2192 UPDF, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.45,
"closing_odds": 3.18,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.45,
"entry_odds": 3.18,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "UPDF",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "UPDF",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maroons",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maroons",
"away_team_id": 12454,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12454.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maroons",
"away_team_public_id": "4cmFpgOtg04Xy3",
"away_team_slug": "maroons",
"country_code": "UG",
"country_display_name": "Uganda",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ug.svg",
"country_id": 159,
"country_name": "Uganda",
"fixture_id": 1635266,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uganda",
"home_team_display_name": "UPDF",
"home_team_id": 12466,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12466.webp",
"home_team_name": "UPDF",
"home_team_public_id": "3VkEuMjVEOmAzU",
"home_team_slug": "updf",
"ht.home_team_slug": "updf",
"league_country": "Uganda",
"league_country_display": "Uganda",
"league_display_name": "Liga Perdana Uganda",
"league_id": 585,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/585.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Perdana Uganda",
"league_public_id": "2pLkIVZvUHFn3m",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4IOoSWIbnXxmkT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Hamz Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2519,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0152,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2828,
"draw": 0.3122,
"home": 0.405
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3097
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4387,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.3122,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2828,
"draw": 0.3122,
"home": 0.405
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.3048
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3892,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1787,
"implied_prob": 0.405,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2828,
"draw": 0.3122,
"home": 0.405
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.37
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": 0.0752,
"ev": 0.2391,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.0518,
"ev": -0.1492,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.1355,
"ev": -0.3009,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.22,
"alpha_yes": 0.2,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0752,
"edge_yes": 0.0752,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1188,
"ev_yes": 0.088,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0621,
"implied_no": 0.5312,
"implied_yes": 0.4688,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1188,
"implied_prob": 0.5301,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5138
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4699,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4847
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5138,
"p_final_yes": 0.4847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1578,
"alpha_under": 0.217,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.275,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.515,
"edge_over": 0.082,
"edge_under": -0.082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0611,
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"implied_over": 0.4,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3997,
"implied_under": 0.6,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6003,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.6003,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5824
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4127,
"p_final_under": 0.5824,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2391,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2391,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Maroons at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Maroons as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Maroons",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Maroons \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.57 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635266 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.57 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced UPDF, but the model still strongly favours Maroons.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0152,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31446540880503143,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.18,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": -0.0152,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Maroons"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.935,
"edge": 0.0148,
"market_prob": 0.4699,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.715,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1188,
"implied_prob": 0.5301,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5138
},
"p_final": 0.4847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0621,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2,
"best_odd": 1.935,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": -0.0621,
"implied_prob": 0.4699,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4847
}
},
"edge": 0.0752,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.275,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3997,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.275,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"p_final": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0611,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.6003,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5824
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.082,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1635266,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maroons",
"home": "UPDF"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052904,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0152,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.18,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.31446540880503143,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2392,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635266,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T13:59:40.237206+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Uganda — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Vipers SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Maroons | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Lugazi | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Police | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Vipers SC | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Express | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | URA | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | UPDF | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Kitara | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| 15 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
