AI correctly predicted the Independiente Medellín win.
The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Independiente Medellín Independiente Medellín ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 31.5% | 25.1% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.1% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Independiente Medellín | 39.0% | 44.8% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo Pasto's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.1%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Independiente Medellín win 1–4).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Pasto.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Independiente Medellín more conservatively (32.6% vs model 39.0%, 6.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Independiente Medellín win 1–4).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Independiente Medellín 39.0%
- xG · Deportivo Pasto 1.22 — Independiente Medellín 1.38
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 00:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 3.70 · Draw 3.08 · Independiente Medellín 2.07
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 25.1% · Draw 30.1% · Independiente Medellín 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 3.70 · Draw 3.08 · Independiente Medellín 2.07
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 25.1% · Draw 30.1% · Independiente Medellín 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 10, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Independiente Medellín win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
67/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Independiente Medellín win · Deportivo Pasto 1–4 Independiente Medellín
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1221,
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},
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"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 1798.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "12/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.4,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 6.4,
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"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Medell\u00edn at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Medell\u00edn as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Independiente Medell\u00edn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.70 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635082 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.70 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "12/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.41,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.41,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Medell\u00edn at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Medell\u00edn as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Independiente Medell\u00edn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.70 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635082 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.70 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Pasto 1.22 xG vs Independiente Medell\u00edn 1.38 \u2192 Independiente Medell\u00edn 39.0%",
"Market: Independiente Medell\u00edn ~44.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Pasto odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Independiente Medell\u00edn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"market_prob": 25.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.58,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"market_prob": 44.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.4,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.4,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"market_prob_pct": 25.07,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Pasto\u0027s win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.1%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.41,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Independiente Medell\u00edn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Pasto 1.22 xG vs Independiente Medell\u00edn 1.38 \u2192 Independiente Medell\u00edn 39.0%",
"Market: Independiente Medell\u00edn ~44.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Pasto odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Independiente Medell\u00edn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.41,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Pasto odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Pasto.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Pasto.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Pasto.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Pasto."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Deportivo Pasto.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo Pasto (\u2191 +12.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/14) supports the current market view on Deportivo Pasto."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.41,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.4,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Pasto considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.41,
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"market_prob_pct": 25.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.58,
"edge_pp": -0.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.12,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.84,
"edge_pp": -5.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 44.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Pasto.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Independiente Medell\u00edn (44.8%).",
"However, Deportivo Pasto has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +12.5%, 12/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Independiente Medell\u00edn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.03,
"closing_odds": 3.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.03,
"entry_odds": 3.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Deportivo Pasto (12.5%, 12/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.45",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 3.04 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 13m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.04"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.7,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Deportivo Pasto odds \u2191 +12.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Deportivo Pasto odds \u2191 +12.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "independiente-medellin",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"away_team_id": 1128,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1128.webp",
"away_team_name": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"away_team_public_id": "59Lcy7G2bvAGCN",
"away_team_slug": "independiente-medellin",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1635082,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"home_team_id": 1126,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1126.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"home_team_public_id": "1h2i7Gyr4bXBVA",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-pasto",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-pasto",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Copa Colombia",
"league_id": 241,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/241.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Colombia",
"league_public_id": "3B49LrfUzTfGFw",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-10 01:10:00",
"public_id": "1wpaKpf6Ca2eAU",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Pasto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Departamental Libertad"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4105,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4481,
"draw": 0.3012,
"home": 0.2507
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4241
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2974,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0017,
"ev": -0.0777,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4481,
"draw": 0.3012,
"home": 0.2507
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2995
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2711,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4481,
"draw": 0.3012,
"home": 0.2507
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2681
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.0934,
"ev": -0.1934,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.7,
"edge": 0.0446,
"ev": 0.1652,
"implied_prob": 0.2703,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2202,
"alpha_yes": 0.2202,
"best_no_odd": 1.87,
"best_yes_odd": 1.88,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.044,
"edge_yes": 0.044,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1473,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1008,
"ev_yes": 0.0227,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0641,
"implied_no": 0.5,
"implied_yes": 0.5,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4914
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5086
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4914,
"p_final_yes": 0.5086,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2224,
"alpha_under": 0.2447,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0381,
"edge_under": -0.0381,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0515,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0857,
"implied_over": 0.4439,
"implied_over_mf": 0.443,
"implied_under": 0.5561,
"implied_under_mf": 0.557,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4517
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5475
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4517,
"p_final_under": 0.5475,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1652,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Medell\u00edn at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Medell\u00edn as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Independiente Medell\u00edn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.70 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +17% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635082 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.70 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Independiente Medell\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +17% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Independiente Medell\u00edn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.01,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4914
},
"p_final": 0.5086,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0641,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.01,
"ev": -0.0641,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5086
}
},
"edge": 0.044,
"ev": 0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.443,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2224,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4517
},
"p_final": 0.4517,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0515,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2447,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5475
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0381,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4439,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1635082,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Independiente Medell\u00edn",
"home": "Deportivo Pasto"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1221,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48309178743961356,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1933,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635082,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T01:09:06.846400+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Copa Colombia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Petrolera | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Universitario de Popayán | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Universitario de Popayán | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Alianza Petrolera | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
