The model missed the final outcome (Ajman U23 win 0–1).
The model had projected Ittihad Kalba U23 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Ittihad Kalba U23 Ajman U23 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Ittihad Kalba U23; match finished Ajman U23
Market lesson
The full-time result was Ajman U23 win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:09 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ittihad Kalba U23 1.32 — Ajman U23 1.28
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ajman U23 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ajman U23 win · Ittihad Kalba U23 0–1 Ajman U23
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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},
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.3
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_label": "Ittihad Kalba U23"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 6.3,
"implied_prob": 27.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.59
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
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"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"over": {
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"under": {
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"ev_available": true,
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},
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "+22.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2424,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.2,
"text": "-24.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10201.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1618,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.2,
"text": "-16.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.062,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"sort_key": 1784.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 64,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ittihad Kalba U23 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ittihad Kalba U23 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1618,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 64,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ittihad Kalba U23 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ittihad Kalba U23 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1618,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ittihad Kalba U23 1.32 xG vs Ajman U23 1.28 \u2192 Ittihad Kalba U23 36.1%",
"Market Steam: Ittihad Kalba U23 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ittihad Kalba U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Ajman U23",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.18,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.18,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "No clear directional signal",
"positive": null
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Ittihad Kalba U23, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Ajman U23 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ittihad Kalba U23 1.32 xG vs Ajman U23 1.28 \u2192 Ittihad Kalba U23 36.1%",
"Market Steam: Ittihad Kalba U23 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ittihad Kalba U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ajman U23",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Ittihad Kalba U23 (36.1%).",
"The model and market both lean Ittihad Kalba U23, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Ajman U23 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/5",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_team_name": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ajman U23",
"away_team_id": 27484,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Ajman U23",
"away_team_public_id": "5lmIKiUOxqOHiH",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "AE",
"country_display_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ae.svg",
"country_id": 161,
"country_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"fixture_id": 1634299,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"home_team_id": 27495,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"home_team_public_id": "1oRsi1hln3juDT",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_country_display": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro B-23 UAE",
"league_id": 1218,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1218.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro B-23 UAE",
"league_public_id": "3wiTQNHVCRPM1F",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 13:40:00",
"public_id": "26iAoGm64M5Nfo",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4436,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.333,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.333,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4194
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3372
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2779,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.2476,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.333,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4194
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2613
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4106,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1618,
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.333,
"draw": 0.2476,
"home": 0.4194
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3954
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0321,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.0651,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": -0.1108,
"ev": -0.2348,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1049,
"alpha_yes": 0.1442,
"best_no_odd": 2.69,
"best_yes_odd": 1.39,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1118,
"edge_yes": -0.1118,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.224,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0559,
"ev_yes": -0.2424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1095,
"implied_no": 0.3432,
"implied_yes": 0.6568,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1049,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3549
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1442,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6407
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3549,
"p_final_yes": 0.6407,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1923,
"alpha_under": 0.1398,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.46,
"edge_over": -0.1477,
"edge_under": 0.1477,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1329,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0405,
"implied_over": 0.6297,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6308,
"implied_under": 0.3703,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3692,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1329,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6022
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1398,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.39
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6022,
"p_final_under": 0.39,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 64,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ittihad Kalba U23 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ittihad Kalba U23 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ittihad Kalba U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1618,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1618,
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ittihad Kalba U23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1049,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.3432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1049,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3549
},
"p_final": 0.3549,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0559,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1442,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6407
}
},
"edge": 0.1118,
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1398,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0208,
"market_prob": 0.3692,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1923,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0286,
"ev": -0.1329,
"implied_prob": 0.6308,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6022
},
"p_final": 0.39,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0405,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1398,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0208,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.3692,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.39
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1477,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1634299,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ajman U23",
"home": "Ittihad Kalba U23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106967,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3703,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1618,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4716981132075471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2349,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1634299,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:09:21.119916+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Ittihad Kalba U23 & Ajman U23!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro B-23 UAE — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain B-23 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Ajman U23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Sharjah B-23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Al Wahda U23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Ittihad Kalba U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Jazira B-23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | United FC U23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Al Wasl B-23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Hatta B-23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Al Dhafra B-23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan U23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Al Nasr U23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Bani Yas B-23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain B-23 | 5 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Wahda U23 | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Al Dhafra B-23 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Sharjah B-23 | 4 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Ittihad Kalba U23 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Hatta B-23 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Nasr U23 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | United FC U23 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Ajman U23 | 5 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 | Al Jazira B-23 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Wasl B-23 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Bani Yas B-23 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0 |
| 14 | Khorfakkan U23 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
