The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Jiul Petroșani at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Jiul Petroșani Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Jiul Petroșani; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Unirea Bascov 1.27 — Jiul Petroșani 1.33
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Unirea Bascov 1–1 Jiul Petroșani
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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"selection_name": null
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},
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"away_played": 5,
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],
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},
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 33.8,
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"lean_label": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani"
},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 11:59:21",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 11:29:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Unirea Bascov",
"largest_move_kind": null,
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
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},
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1469,
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"text": "-14.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0067,
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0035,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1389,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0035,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4049.51,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0371,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0371,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"sort_key": 1790.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.85,
"hero_label": "Unirea Bascov",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"market_team": "Unirea Bascov",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jiul Petro\u0219ani at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jiul Petro\u0219ani as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0371,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.85,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.85,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Unirea Bascov",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jiul Petro\u0219ani at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jiul Petro\u0219ani as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0371,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Unirea Bascov 1.27 xG vs Jiul Petro\u0219ani 1.33 \u2192 Jiul Petro\u0219ani 36.6%",
"Market: Unirea Bascov ~30.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Unirea Bascov +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Jiul Petro\u0219ani with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.85,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Unirea Bascov",
"market_prob": 43.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.09,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"market_prob": 30.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.52,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.52,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.02,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.02,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Unirea Bascov",
"market_prob_pct": 43.62,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Unirea Bascov"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Unirea Bascov\u0027s win probability at 43.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.85,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Unirea Bascov 1.27 xG vs Jiul Petro\u0219ani 1.33 \u2192 Jiul Petro\u0219ani 36.6%",
"Market: Unirea Bascov ~30.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Unirea Bascov +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Jiul Petro\u0219ani with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.85,
"hero_label": "Unirea Bascov",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Unirea Bascov. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Unirea Bascov relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Unirea Bascov. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Unirea Bascov above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.85,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Unirea Bascov",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Unirea Bascov higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.85,
"edge_pp": -9.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Unirea Bascov",
"market_prob_pct": 43.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.09,
"edge_pp": 4.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.76,
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"market_prob_pct": 30.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Unirea Bascov relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Unirea Bascov (30.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Jiul Petro\u0219ani, Market \u2192 Unirea Bascov, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Unirea Bascov",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "Unirea Bascov",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "jiul-petrosani",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"away_team_id": 14586,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14586.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"away_team_public_id": "50irC0YCnnCm5o",
"away_team_slug": "jiul-petrosani",
"country_code": "RO",
"country_display_name": "Romania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
"country_id": 131,
"country_name": "Romania",
"fixture_id": 1633523,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "Unirea Bascov",
"home_team_id": 6912,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6912.webp",
"home_team_name": "Unirea Bascov",
"home_team_public_id": "5wakyi3L8o3L4a",
"home_team_slug": "unirea-bascov",
"ht.home_team_slug": "unirea-bascov",
"league_country": "Romania",
"league_country_display": "Romania",
"league_display_name": "Liga III - Serie 6 Romania",
"league_id": 789,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/789.webp",
"league_name": "Liga III - Serie 6 Romania",
"league_public_id": "1f39oFCmgI0hYq",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 12:00:00",
"public_id": "3aHXbEDmk1IJgs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4111,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3083,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.4362
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.332
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2816,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0654,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3083,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.4362
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.267
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3834,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0378,
"ev": -0.1834,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3083,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.4362
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.3984
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": 0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": 0.0377,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.1503,
"ev": -0.308,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2144,
"alpha_yes": 0.2358,
"best_no_odd": 2.19,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0302,
"edge_yes": -0.0302,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0035,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0748,
"ev_yes": -0.1389,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.101,
"implied_no": 0.4248,
"implied_yes": 0.5752,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4303
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2358,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.569
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4303,
"p_final_yes": 0.569,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2263,
"alpha_under": 0.2058,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.685,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": -0.0552,
"edge_under": 0.0552,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1469,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1135,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0687,
"implied_over": 0.5372,
"implied_over_mf": 0.539,
"implied_under": 0.4628,
"implied_under_mf": 0.461,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.539,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5261
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4727
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5261,
"p_final_under": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Jiul Petro\u0219ani at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Jiul Petro\u0219ani as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Unirea Bascov, but the model still strongly favours Jiul Petro\u0219ani.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0371,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": -0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4236,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2144,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0748,
"implied_prob": 0.4236,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4303
},
"p_final": 0.4303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0748,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2358,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.5764,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.569
}
},
"edge": 0.0302,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.461,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2263,
"best_odd": 1.685,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.539,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5261
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0687,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2058,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0552,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4628,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1633523,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jiul Petro\u0219ani",
"home": "Unirea Bascov"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4628,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0371,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0614,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+6.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1633523,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T11:59:23.095382+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga III - Serie 6 Romania — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | CSM Târgu Jiu | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Jiul Petroșani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Filiași | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Unirea Bascov | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Păușești | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Academica Balș | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Oltul Curtişoara | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 7 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | CSM Târgu Jiu | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 3 | CS U Craiova II | 7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Filiași | 7 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Unirea Bascov | 7 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Jiul Petroșani | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Academica Balș | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Minerul Lupeni | 7 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | Oltul Curtişoara | 7 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 11 | Păușești | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 7 | 3 | 28 | -25 | 0 |
